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Predators at Lightning
NHL

Nashville Predators at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
2
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸5
FinalTV FS-TN, SUN·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Nashville Predators 5-2. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 4-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Yanni Gourde's goal at 13:59 of the first period, which took the Lightning's chances from 69% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 4.6 to 3.0; shots on goal were NSH 31, TBL 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 23 of 27 (.852), 1.2 goals below expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 29 of 31 (.935), 1.0 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Ryan McDonagh, 2. Yanni Gourde (2 G), 3. Andrei Vasilevskiy (29 saves, .935).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    R. McDonagh
  2. ★★
    TBL
    Y. Gourde2 G
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    A. Vasilevskiy29 saves, .935

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH01301028231
TBLTBL3131619528

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    O. Palat(4)
    S. Stamkos (5), J. Rutta (1)
    backhandxG 0.05win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    9:13
  2. TBL
    Y. Gourde(2)
    T. Johnson (2), A. Cirelli (6)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +13 pts
    0-2
    13:59
  3. TBL
    B. Point(3)
    M. Joseph (1), M. Sergachev (4)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +9 pts
    0-3
    19:59

2nd period

  1. TBL
    S. Stamkos(4)PPG
    V. Hedman (6), A. Killorn (4)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +3 pts
    0-4
    7:23

3rd period

  1. NSH
    E. Tolvanen(1)
    E. Haula (3)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +1 pts
    1-4
    2:53
  2. NSH
    M. Granlund(3)
    R. Ellis (2), R. Josi (3)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +5 pts
    2-4
    5:41
  3. TBL
    Y. Gourde(3)EN
    B. Goodrow (3)
    wristxG 0.76
    2-5
    19:44

Penalties

NSH 8 PIM·TBL 6 PIM

1st

  • 1:48NSHJarred Tinordi · Holdingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min
  • 4:30TBLErik Cernak · Interferencedrawn by Matt Duchene2 min
  • 11:54NSHRoman Josi · Trippingdrawn by Ondrej Palat2 min

2nd

  • 2:45NSHErik Haula · Interferencedrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min
  • 6:41NSHNick Cousins · Trippingdrawn by Victor Hedman2 min
  • 10:57TBLErik Cernak · Interferencedrawn by Matt Duchene2 min
  • 12:13TBLMikhail Sergachev · Cross checkingdrawn by Viktor Arvidsson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalNSH goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Yanni Gourde, 1st 13:59 — TBL 69% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
Y. Gourde · Goal · xG 0.76O. Palat · Missed · xG 0.60B. Coleman · Missed · xG 0.47O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.19B. Point · Goal · xG 0.18R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.16Y. Gourde · Goal · xG 0.16Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.14Y. Gourde · Missed · xG 0.13Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.13A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.12O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.12R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.11B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.10Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.10M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.10R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.09M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.09B. Point · On goal · xG 0.08S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.08R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.07A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.07A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.06O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.06B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.06O. Palat · Goal · xG 0.05S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.05S. Stamkos · Goal · xG 0.04A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.03B. Coleman · Missed · xG 0.03A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.02A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.02C. Foote · Missed · xG 0.02E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.02V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.01E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.01M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.01B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.01E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.01V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.00
TBL5 G · 4.6 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsTBL
3.02 G
All situations
4 G4.6
2.42 G
Even strength
3 G2.1
0.60 G
Power play
1 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH54%46%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.92 – 2.70

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsTBL
31
Shots on goal
28
56%
Faceoffs
44%
0/3
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
6
19
Hits
18
11
Blocked shots
17
3
Giveaways
2
0
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59R. JosiD011010.09102—27:06
4R. EllisD011040.09100—25:22
64M. GranlundC101+120.352105023:29
9F. ForsbergL000+130.49100—20:17
14M. EkholmD000-210.00000—18:24
57D. FabbroD000-120.02030—18:24
95M. DucheneC000030.410006017:11
92R. JohansenC000-100.001205216:44
33V. ArvidssonL000-180.85000—16:13
5M. BenningD000-110.02210—14:11
24J. TinordiD000-100.01132—13:57
56E. HaulaL011-100.004026713:35
21N. CousinsC000-110.10002013:11
25M. OlivierR000-220.2620010013:09
10C. SissonsC000-110.090105512:20
28E. TolvanenR101010.14100—10:52
23R. GrimaldiR000-110.05100—10:45
13Y. TreninC000000.00200010:38
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74J. Saros(L)27234.8522.76-1.2457:30

Season series

TBL leads 6-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).