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Minnesota Wild at San Jose Sharks

FinalTV NBCSCA, BSN·SAP Center at San Jose

Recap

written from the game data

The San Jose Sharks beat the Minnesota Wild 4-2. The Sharks scored first and never trailed. The Sharks led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Rudolfs Balcers's goal at 4:41 of the second period, which took the Sharks' chances from 53% to 70%. Expected goals favored the Sharks, 3.1 to 1.5; shots on goal were MIN 28, SJS 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sharks win a replay of these chances 73% of the time. Kaapo Kahkonen stopped 29 of 32 (.906); Martin Jones stopped 26 of 28 (.929), 0.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Brent Burns (2 A), 2. Tomas Hertl (2 A), 3. Nikolai Knyzhov (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    SJS
    B. Burns2 A
  2. ★★
    SJS
    T. Hertl2 A
  3. ★★★
    SJS
    N. Knyzhov1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
MINMIN0100929228
SJSSJS01021429433

Scoring

6 goals

2nd period

  1. SJS
    T. Hertl (11), B. Burns (14)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +17 pts
    0-1
    4:41
  2. SJS
    R. Donato(6)PPG
    B. Burns (15), M. Ferraro (12)
    backhandxG 0.16win prob +13 pts
    0-2
    9:22

3rd period

  1. MIN
    wristxG 0.05win prob +13 pts
    1-2
    8:23
  2. SJS
    snapxG 0.06win prob +13 pts
    1-3
    10:58
  3. MIN
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +1 pts
    2-3
    19:47
  4. SJS
    E. Kane(15)EN
    wristxG 0.36win prob +1 pts
    2-4
    19:59

Penalties

MIN 8 PIM·SJS 6 PIM

1st

  • 9:32MINNico Sturm · Delaying game2 min
  • 12:44SJSBrent Burns · Trippingdrawn by Kirill Kaprizov2 min

2nd

  • 7:55MINKevin Fiala · Slashingdrawn by Erik Karlsson2 min

3rd

  • 0:19MINRyan Hartman · Slashingdrawn by Evander Kane2 min
  • 12:22SJSEvander Kane · Roughingdrawn by Ryan Hartman2 min
  • 12:22MINRyan Hartman · Cross checkingdrawn by Evander Kane2 min
  • 16:24SJSPatrick Marleau · High stickingdrawn by Ryan Hartman2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
SJS goalMIN goalFinal: SJS 100%

Biggest swing: Rudolfs Balcers, 2nd 4:41 — SJS 53% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
E. Kane · Goal · xG 0.36J. Viel · On goal · xG 0.31E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.23R. Balcers · Goal · xG 0.20R. Donato · Goal · xG 0.16L. Couture · On goal · xG 0.13E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.13T. Meier · On goal · xG 0.12E. Kane · Missed · xG 0.10T. Hertl · On goal · xG 0.10E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.09R. Balcers · On goal · xG 0.09R. Donato · On goal · xG 0.08T. Hertl · On goal · xG 0.08D. Gambrell · On goal · xG 0.08T. Meier · Missed · xG 0.07N. Knyzhov · Goal · xG 0.06L. Couture · On goal · xG 0.06L. Couture · On goal · xG 0.05P. Marleau · Missed · xG 0.05P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.05E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.04N. Knyzhov · On goal · xG 0.04E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.04R. Donato · On goal · xG 0.04E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.03K. Labanc · On goal · xG 0.03R. Donato · On goal · xG 0.03E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.03B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.02E. Karlsson · Missed · xG 0.02E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.02R. Donato · On goal · xG 0.02E. Karlsson · Missed · xG 0.02L. Couture · On goal · xG 0.02E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.02R. Simek · On goal · xG 0.01E. Kane · Missed · xG 0.01D. Gambrell · Missed · xG 0.01E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.01
SJS4 G · 3.1 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

MINvsSJS
1.52 G
All situations
3 G3.1
1.12 G
Even strength
2 G2.0
0.40 G
Power play
1 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
MIN27%73%SJS

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.49 – 2.69

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

MINvsSJS
28
Shots on goal
33
49%
Faceoffs
51%
0/2
Power play
1/3
8
Penalty minutes
6
28
Hits
34
18
Blocked shots
16
8
Giveaways
9
5
Takeaways
13

Box score

every player line
Minnesota Wild skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
24M. DumbaD000-110.06140—23:19
46J. SpurgeonD011-110.02410—22:58
25J. BrodinD000-110.02010—22:52
20R. SuterD000-110.01320—20:49
97K. KaprizovL101+140.25120—20:23
38R. HartmanR011030.074143319:54
22K. FialaL011040.22112—19:52
36M. ZuccarelloR101020.25000—18:13
90M. JohanssonL000-120.071005018:07
49V. RaskC000010.050005015:26
13N. BoninoC000-110.110105015:25
28I. ColeD000+110.01120—13:44
21C. SoucyD011+140.10210—13:19
18J. GreenwayL000-100.00000—13:12
14J. Eriksson EkC000-110.063105013:07
7N. SturmC000000.07112008:18
27N. BjugstadC000000.0020010007:59
41L. JohnsonC000010.134006707:46
Minnesota Wild goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
34K. Kahkonen(L)32293.9062.71-0.2957:50

Season series

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).