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Canadiens at Senators
NHL

Montréal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Montréal Canadiens
1
Ottawa Senators
▸5
FinalTV SN, RDS·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Montréal Canadiens 5-1. The Senators scored first and never trailed. The Senators led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nick Paul's goal at 19:52 of the second period, which took the Senators' chances from 75% to 91%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 2.7 to 1.8; shots on goal were MTL 31, OTT 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 67% of the time. Jake Allen stopped 29 of 34 (.853), 2.3 goals below expected; Anton Forsberg stopped 30 of 31 (.968), 0.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Erik Brannstrom (3 A), 2. Nick Paul (1 G, 1 A), 3. Anton Forsberg (30 saves, .968).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    E. Brannstrom3 A
  2. ★★
    OTT
    N. Paul1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    A. Forsberg30 saves, .968

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
MTLMTL11007014131
OTTOTT11121726534

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    S. Pinto(1)
    A. Zub (9), E. Brannstrom (8)
    snapxG 0.22win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    11:35
  2. MTL
    J. Edmundson(3)
    T. Toffoli (14), N. Suzuki (26)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    19:28

2nd period

  1. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(17)
    J. Norris (18), E. Brannstrom (9)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    3:44
  2. OTT
    N. Paul(5)
    E. Brannstrom (10)
    deflectedxG 0.10win prob +16 pts
    1-3
    19:52

3rd period

  1. OTT
    C. Brown(19)
    A. Zub (10), C. Tierney (13)
    slapxG 0.13win prob +5 pts
    1-4
    4:40
  2. OTT
    A. Formenton(4)
    N. Paul (15), C. White (8)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +1 pts
    1-5
    10:19

Penalties

MTL 6 PIM·OTT 4 PIM

2nd

  • 1:31MTLJosh Anderson · Trippingdrawn by Colin White2 min
  • 12:55MTLJon Merrill · Roughingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min

3rd

  • 6:01OTTAlex Formenton · Roughingdrawn by Joel Edmundson2 min
  • 6:01MTLJoel Edmundson · Roughingdrawn by Alex Formenton2 min
  • 16:04OTTColin White · Trippingdrawn by Ben Chiarot2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalMTL goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Nick Paul, 2nd 19:52 — OTT 75% → 91%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Pinto · Goal · xG 0.22D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.17B. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.16A. Formenton · Goal · xG 0.13C. Brown · Goal · xG 0.13T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.12S. Pinto · Missed · xG 0.11J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.10N. Paul · Goal · xG 0.10B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.10R. Dzingel · On goal · xG 0.10J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.10C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.08A. Formenton · Missed · xG 0.07S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.07B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.07S. Pinto · Missed · xG 0.06C. White · On goal · xG 0.06C. White · Missed · xG 0.06D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.06N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.06T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.06S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.05A. Formenton · On goal · xG 0.05A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.04V. Mete · On goal · xG 0.04E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.03J. Bernard-Docker · On goal · xG 0.03J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dzingel · On goal · xG 0.03C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.03C. White · On goal · xG 0.03B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.02D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.02E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.02T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.02S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.02N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.01J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.01D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · Missed · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01A. Formenton · On goal · xG 0.01
OTT5 G · 2.7 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

MTLvsOTT
1.81 G
All situations
5 G2.7
1.81 G
Even strength
5 G2.1
0.00 G
Power play
0 G0.6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
MTL33%67%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.75 – 2.68

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

MTLvsOTT
31
Shots on goal
34
45%
Faceoffs
55%
0/1
Power play
0/2
6
Penalty minutes
4
31
Hits
37
16
Blocked shots
20
14
Giveaways
16
4
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Montréal Canadiens skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26J. PetryD000-120.06210—23:42
44J. EdmundsonD101-110.12002—20:22
27A. RomanovD000-100.00050—19:55
8B. ChiarotD000-200.00120—19:44
77B. KulakD000-220.09030—17:57
94C. PerryR000030.26000—16:45
28J. MerrillD000-120.07122—16:35
24P. DanaultC000-210.014105316:10
14N. SuzukiC011-170.173002416:00
17J. AndersonR000-200.07302—15:39
73T. ToffoliC011-130.35200015:10
40J. ArmiaR000000.02500—14:56
22C. CaufieldR000-230.14100—14:46
71J. EvansC000-120.084104414:30
67M. FrolikR000030.0700010014:04
21E. StaalC000010.020105713:12
62A. LehkonenL000-100.00200—13:05
15J. KotkaniemiC000-210.223006711:28
Montréal Canadiens goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
34J. Allen(L)34295.8532.70-2.3060:00

Season series

OTT leads 6-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).