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Coyotes at Avalanche
NHL

Utah Mammoth at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Utah Mammoth
2
Colorado Avalanche
▸4
FinalTV BSAZ, ALT2·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Utah Mammoth 4-2. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brandon Saad's goal at 12:17 of the first period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 54% to 67%. Expected goals were close — ARI 2.5, COL 2.5; shots on goal were ARI 37, COL 20. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Coyotes win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Ivan Prosvetov stopped 16 of 19 (.842), 1.0 goals below expected; Philipp Grubauer stopped 35 of 37 (.946), 0.5 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G, 1 A), 2. Cale Makar (2 A), 3. Philipp Grubauer (35 saves, .946).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    C. Makar2 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    P. Grubauer35 saves, .946

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
ARIARI012011214237
COLCOL192615420

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    B. Saad(13)
    S. Girard (26), T. Jost (8)
    backhandxG 0.03win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    12:17

2nd period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(17)PPG
    C. Makar (25), G. Landeskog (25)
    slapxG 0.13win prob +13 pts
    0-2
    9:08
  2. COL
    M. Rantanen(24)
    N. MacKinnon (35), C. Makar (26)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +7 pts
    0-3
    18:03

3rd period

  1. ARI
    M. Bunting(6)PPG
    O. Ekman-Larsson (17), P. Kessel (18)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +2 pts
    1-3
    10:42
  2. ARI
    J. Larsson(7)
    D. Hunt (2), A. Goligoski (11)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +11 pts
    2-3
    13:16
  3. COL
    M. Rantanen(25)EN
    D. Toews (17)
    wristxG 0.50win prob +4 pts
    2-4
    18:03

Penalties

ARI 12 PIM·COL 12 PIM

1st

  • 18:25ARIMichael Bunting · Hookingdrawn by Samuel Girard2 min

2nd

  • 8:05ARIIlya Lyubushkin · Slashingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min
  • 10:56COLKeaton Middleton · Roughingdrawn by Dryden Hunt2 min
  • 13:43ARIJason Demers · Trippingdrawn by Devon Toews2 min
  • 18:21ARIConor Garland · High stickingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min

3rd

  • 3:49COLMikko Rantanen · High stickingdrawn by Conor Garland2 min
  • 9:34COLDevon Toews · Trippingdrawn by Johan Larsson2 min
  • 19:40ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson · Slashingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min
  • 19:40COLMikko Rantanen · Cross checkingdrawn by Oliver Ekman-Larsson2 min
  • 19:40COLMikko Rantanen · Roughingdrawn by Oliver Ekman-Larsson2 min
  • 19:55ARIMichael Bunting · Roughingdrawn by Ryan Graves2 min
  • 19:55COLRyan Graves · Roughingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalARI goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Brandon Saad, 1st 12:17 — COL 54% → 67%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.50J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.16N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.15M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.13N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.13A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.12M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.12B. Saad · Missed · xG 0.11B. Saad · Missed · xG 0.10M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.09M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.09J. Donskoi · Missed · xG 0.09M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.09T. Jost · Missed · xG 0.07G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.07N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.07A. Burakovsky · Missed · xG 0.06V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.06C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.05B. Saad · Goal · xG 0.03D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.03G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.03A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.03G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.02S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.02P. Bellemare · On goal · xG 0.01D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.01J. MacDonald · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.01R. Graves · Missed · xG 0.00D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.00
COL4 G · 2.5 xG · 33 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

ARIvsCOL
2.52 G
All situations
3 G2.5
1.81 G
Even strength
2 G1.3
0.71 G
Power play
1 G0.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
ARI58%42%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.41 – 1.98

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

ARIvsCOL
37
Shots on goal
20
49%
Faceoffs
51%
1/4
Power play
1/4
12
Penalty minutes
12
28
Hits
14
19
Blocked shots
12
5
Giveaways
9
4
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Utah Mammoth skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
23O. Ekman-LarssonD011-130.17212—24:46
33A. GoligoskiD011-110.03040—23:38
6J. ChychrunD000-140.13310—22:06
58M. BuntingL101030.35114—17:41
18C. DvorakC000000.000006417:25
81P. KesselR011-250.19000—16:36
4N. HjalmarssonD000020.04020—16:14
83C. GarlandR000-120.13102—15:32
8N. SchmaltzC000000.000205415:16
55J. DemersD000030.03612—15:01
36C. FischerR000020.10300—14:53
17T. PitlickC000010.07130014:52
46I. LyubushkinD000-110.02332—14:33
93L. PedersonC000-120.251003614:11
9C. KellerR000-100.0000010014:10
22J. LarssonL101-120.252003614:02
67L. CrouseL000020.23010—13:49
28D. HuntL011-140.51500—10:10
Utah Mammoth goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
50I. Prosvetov(L)19163.8421.98-1.0257:58

Season series

COL leads 6-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).