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Islanders at Capitals
NHL

New York Islanders at Washington Capitals

NHL scoreboard
New York Islanders
3
Washington Capitals
▸6
FinalTV MSG+ 2, NBCSWA·Capital One Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Washington Capitals beat the New York Islanders 6-3. The Capitals came back from three goals down. The Capitals led 5-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Garnet Hathaway's goal at 11:11 of the second period, which took the Capitals' chances from 34% to 53%. Expected goals favored the Capitals, 2.3 to 1.8; shots on goal were NYI 30, WSH 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Semyon Varlamov stopped 17 of 22 (.773), 3.4 goals below expected; Vitek Vanecek stopped 27 of 30 (.900), 1.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Conor Sheary (2 G), 2. Zdeno Chara (1 G, 1 A), 3. John Carlson (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WSH
    C. Sheary2 G
  2. ★★
    WSH
    Z. Chara1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    WSH
    J. Carlson1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYINYI31009011330
WSHWSH0851411623

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. NYI
    O. Wahlstrom(1)
    J. Pageau (2)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    9:50
  2. NYI
    C. Cizikas(1)
    C. Clutterbuck (2)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +16 pts
    2-0
    10:08
  3. NYI
    A. Lee(3)PPG
    M. Barzal (4), N. Dobson (4)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +9 pts
    3-0
    17:39

2nd period

  1. WSH
    C. Sheary(1)
    J. Carlson (6), B. Dillon (3)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +10 pts
    3-1
    9:07
  2. WSH
    C. Sheary(2)
    Z. Chara (2), R. Panik (2)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +17 pts
    3-2
    10:20
  3. WSH
    G. Hathaway(2)
    C. Hagelin (1), N. Dowd (1)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +19 pts
    3-3
    11:11
  4. WSH
    J. Carlson(3)PPG
    J. Schultz (3), N. Backstrom (5)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +18 pts
    3-4
    14:16
  5. WSH
    Z. Chara(1)
    J. Schultz (4), M. Sgarbossa (1)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +16 pts
    3-5
    18:30

3rd period

  1. WSH
    T. Wilson(4)EN
    T. Oshie (5), N. Backstrom (6)
    wristxG 0.48
    3-6
    19:41

Penalties

NYI 16 PIM·WSH 6 PIM

1st

  • 11:08WSHGarnet Hathaway · Holdingdrawn by Noah Dobson2 min
  • 12:39NYIBrock Nelson · High stickingdrawn by John Carlson2 min
  • 16:50WSHTom Wilson · Trippingdrawn by Cal Clutterbuck2 min

2nd

  • 12:56NYIOliver Wahlstrom · Hookingdrawn by T.J. Oshie2 min

3rd

  • 16:48WSHRichard Panik · Interferencedrawn by Casey Cizikas2 min
  • 18:12NYIRyan Pulock · Trippingdrawn by Tom Wilson2 min
  • 18:12NYIMathew Barzal · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WSH goalNYI goalFinal: WSH 100%

Biggest swing: Garnet Hathaway, 2nd 11:11 — WSH 34% → 53%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Wilson · Goal · xG 0.48N. Dowd · On goal · xG 0.26N. Backstrom · Missed · xG 0.21C. Sheary · Goal · xG 0.11T. Oshie · On goal · xG 0.10N. Backstrom · On goal · xG 0.09N. Backstrom · On goal · xG 0.08J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.08J. Vrana · Missed · xG 0.07C. Sheary · Goal · xG 0.07J. Carlson · Missed · xG 0.06J. Carlson · Goal · xG 0.06J. Vrana · Missed · xG 0.05G. Hathaway · Missed · xG 0.05R. Panik · On goal · xG 0.05J. Schultz · On goal · xG 0.04J. Vrana · On goal · xG 0.04D. Sprong · Missed · xG 0.03C. Hagelin · On goal · xG 0.03B. Dillon · On goal · xG 0.03J. Vrana · On goal · xG 0.03G. Hathaway · Goal · xG 0.03C. Hagelin · Missed · xG 0.03N. Backstrom · Missed · xG 0.02C. Sheary · Missed · xG 0.02D. Carr · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Chara · Goal · xG 0.02T. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.02D. Carr · On goal · xG 0.02T. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.01R. Panik · On goal · xG 0.01C. Hagelin · On goal · xG 0.01D. Sprong · Missed · xG 0.01J. Carlson · Missed · xG 0.01T. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.01R. Panik · On goal · xG 0.01T. Oshie · On goal · xG 0.00
WSH6 G · 2.3 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsWSH
1.83 G
All situations
5 G2.3
1.52 G
Even strength
4 G1.1
0.21 G
Power play
1 G0.5
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 77 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI53%47%WSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.73 – 1.58

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsWSH
30
Shots on goal
23
55%
Faceoffs
45%
1/3
Power play
2/3
16
Penalty minutes
6
19
Hits
15
13
Blocked shots
18
5
Giveaways
1
3
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
6R. PulockD000020.06222—22:41
8N. DobsonD011-150.13210—21:34
2N. LeddyD000-110.03200—21:30
3A. PelechD000020.06130—21:23
13M. BarzalC011-110.0600104020:03
7J. EberleR000-130.35300—19:42
27A. LeeL101-140.340004019:09
12J. BaileyR000-120.0600010016:26
29B. NelsonC000-100.140324716:20
24S. MayfieldD000-100.00220—16:20
4A. GreeneD000-120.06010—16:07
44J. PageauC011+100.040107014:10
15C. ClutterbuckR011-100.00100—13:31
53C. CizikasC101-130.121007312:38
47L. KomarovR000-110.06200—12:36
20K. BellowsL000+130.25200—12:07
26O. WahlstromR101+110.01102—10:51
17M. MartinL000-100.01000—10:44
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40S. Varlamov(L)22175.7731.58-3.4257:19

Season series

WSH leads 6-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).