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Hurricanes at Red Wings
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
2
Detroit Red Wings
▸4
FinalTV FS-CR, FS-D+·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Carolina Hurricanes 4-2. The Red Wings scored first and never trailed. The Red Wings led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Robby Fabbri's goal at 17:18 of the third period, which took the Red Wings' chances from 53% to 94%. Expected goals favored the Red Wings, 3.8 to 3.0; shots on goal were CAR 31, DET 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Petr Mrazek stopped 17 of 20 (.850), 0.8 goals below expected; Jonathan Bernier stopped 29 of 31 (.935), 1.0 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Robby Fabbri (1 G), 2. Dylan Larkin (2 G), 3. Filip Zadina (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DET
    R. Fabbri1 G
  2. ★★
    DET
    D. Larkin2 G
  3. ★★★
    DET
    F. Zadina2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CARCAR01009212231
DETDET051937421

Scoring

6 goals

2nd period

  1. DET
    B. Ryan(1)
    F. Zadina (1)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +16 pts
    0-1
    2:44

3rd period

  1. CAR
    V. Trocheck(1)PPG
    A. Svechnikov (1), D. Hamilton (1)
    deflectedxG 0.14win prob +19 pts
    1-1
    0:28
  2. DET
    D. Larkin(1)
    A. Mantha (1), T. Bertuzzi (1)
    deflectedxG 0.14win prob +24 pts
    1-2
    0:46
  3. CAR
    A. Svechnikov(2)
    J. Martinook (1)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +29 pts
    2-2
    8:56
  4. DET
    R. Fabbri(1)
    F. Zadina (2), F. Hronek (1)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +41 pts
    2-3
    17:18
  5. DET
    D. Larkin(2)EN
    P. Nemeth (1)
    backhandxG 0.32win prob +4 pts
    2-4
    18:04

Penalties

CAR 4 PIM·DET 10 PIM

1st

  • 7:54DETDanny DeKeyser · Trippingdrawn by Warren Foegele2 min
  • 9:57DETMathias Brome · Trippingdrawn by Nino Niederreiter2 min
  • 13:35CARNino Niederreiter · Interferencedrawn by Troy Stecher2 min

2nd

  • 19:28DETDanny DeKeyser · Cross checkingdrawn by Brett Pesce2 min

3rd

  • 11:30DETTyler Bertuzzi · Hookingdrawn by Brett Pesce2 min
  • 15:13CARBrady Skjei · Slashingdrawn by Filip Hronek2 min
  • 19:56DETLuke Glendening · Playing without a helmet2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalCAR goalFinal: DET 100%

Biggest swing: Robby Fabbri, 3rd 17:18 — DET 53% → 94%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
V. Namestnikov · Missed · xG 0.45D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.43M. Brome · Missed · xG 0.39D. Larkin · Goal · xG 0.32A. Mantha · On goal · xG 0.24V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.23R. Fabbri · Goal · xG 0.18B. Ryan · Goal · xG 0.17V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.14L. Glendening · Missed · xG 0.14D. Larkin · Goal · xG 0.14R. Fabbri · Missed · xG 0.13J. Merrill · Missed · xG 0.11D. DeKeyser · On goal · xG 0.11F. Zadina · On goal · xG 0.10L. Glendening · Missed · xG 0.07A. Mantha · Missed · xG 0.06T. Bertuzzi · On goal · xG 0.06D. DeKeyser · On goal · xG 0.05V. Filppula · On goal · xG 0.04D. DeKeyser · Missed · xG 0.03J. Merrill · Missed · xG 0.03T. Stecher · Missed · xG 0.03M. Brome · On goal · xG 0.03L. Glendening · On goal · xG 0.03T. Stecher · On goal · xG 0.02F. Hronek · On goal · xG 0.02F. Hronek · Missed · xG 0.02D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.02F. Hronek · On goal · xG 0.02M. Staal · Missed · xG 0.01B. Ryan · Missed · xG 0.01R. Fabbri · On goal · xG 0.01M. Staal · Missed · xG 0.01T. Stecher · On goal · xG 0.01J. Merrill · On goal · xG 0.00
DET4 G · 3.8 xG · 36 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsDET
3.02 G
All situations
3 G3.8
2.11 G
Even strength
3 G1.5
0.61 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR62%38%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.91 – 2.23

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsDET
31
Shots on goal
21
47%
Faceoffs
53%
1/5
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
10
23
Hits
14
9
Blocked shots
16
4
Giveaways
9
1
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
19D. HamiltonD011-230.11000—22:28
74J. SlavinD000030.05010—21:01
22B. PesceD000-130.08000—20:35
20S. AhoC000-120.311003719:51
86T. TeravainenC000-110.32000019:48
76B. SkjeiD000-210.03202—18:46
37A. SvechnikovR112030.39500—18:09
16V. TrocheckC101-150.521104817:59
21N. NiederreiterR000-140.37102—17:10
71J. FastR000000.00210—16:22
4H. FleuryD000-200.00430—15:17
51J. GardinerD000000.00100—15:12
88M. NecasC000-120.173205015:03
23B. McGinnL000-110.29000—13:56
48J. MartinookL011-100.001006413:18
18R. DzingelC000000.07010011:44
67M. GeekieC000030.262005711:27
13W. FoegeleL000-200.00000—10:38
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
34P. Mrazek(L)20173.8502.24-0.7657:54

Season series

Tied 4-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).