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Lightning at Islanders
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸4
New York Islanders
1
FinalTV NBC, CBC·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the New York Islanders 4-1. The Islanders scored first; the Lightning answered. The Lightning led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ondrej Palat's goal at 11:54 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 47% to 67%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 4.2 to 2.7; shots on goal were TBL 36, NYI 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 26 of 27 (.963), 1.7 goals saved above expected; Semyon Varlamov stopped 32 of 35 (.914). Three stars: 1. Brayden Point (1 G, 1 A), 2. Ondrej Palat (1 G, 1 A), 3. Nikita Kucherov (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    B. Point1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    O. Palat1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL011214211436
NYINYI05112010127

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. NYI
    B. Nelson(9)
    J. Bailey (18)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +19 pts
    0-1
    11:27
  2. TBL
    B. Coleman(4)
    Y. Gourde (6), A. Vasilevskiy (1)
    backhandxG 0.29win prob +19 pts
    1-1
    11:42
  3. TBL
    O. Palat(8)
    N. Kucherov (18), B. Point (16)
    slapxG 0.14win prob +20 pts
    2-1
    11:54

3rd period

  1. TBL
    B. Point(9)
    O. Palat (5), N. Kucherov (19)
    backhandxG 0.09win prob +18 pts
    3-1
    3:33
  2. TBL
    P. Maroon(1)EN
    Y. Gourde (7), C. Paquette (2)
    backhandxG 0.39win prob +1 pts
    4-1
    17:36

Penalties

TBL 8 PIM·NYI 8 PIM

1st

  • 8:13NYIAdam Pelech · Trippingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min
  • 20:00TBLYanni Gourde · Roughingdrawn by Cal Clutterbuck2 min
  • 20:00NYIMatt Martin · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Andrei Vasilevskiy2 min
  • 20:00NYICal Clutterbuck · Roughingdrawn by Yanni Gourde2 min

2nd

  • 6:36TBLRyan McDonagh · Holdingdrawn by Derick Brassard2 min
  • 13:06TBLKevin Shattenkirk · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 14:49NYIMathew Barzal · Holding the stickdrawn by Luke Schenn2 min

3rd

  • 13:52TBLOndrej Palat · Hookingdrawn by Brock Nelson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYI goalTBL goalFinal: NYI 0%

Biggest swing: Ondrej Palat, 2nd 11:54 — TBL 47% → 67%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.29R. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.22R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.14A. Lee · Missed · xG 0.14B. Nelson · Goal · xG 0.14J. Eberle · On goal · xG 0.13B. Nelson · Missed · xG 0.13M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.13R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.12J. Pageau · Missed · xG 0.09M. Barzal · Missed · xG 0.09A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.08R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.07J. Eberle · Missed · xG 0.07B. Nelson · Missed · xG 0.07C. Clutterbuck · On goal · xG 0.07A. Pelech · Missed · xG 0.07R. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.06A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.06A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.06M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.06D. Toews · Missed · xG 0.05R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.04M. Martin · On goal · xG 0.04J. Eberle · On goal · xG 0.04J. Eberle · On goal · xG 0.04A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.03M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.03S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.02A. Pelech · Missed · xG 0.02N. Leddy · Missed · xG 0.02B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.02D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.02D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.01D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.01D. Toews · Missed · xG 0.01S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.01N. Leddy · Missed · xG 0.01D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.00R. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.00L. Komarov · On goal · xG 0.00
NYI1 G · 2.7 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsNYI
4.23 G
All situations
1 G2.7
2.53 G
Even strength
1 G2.0
0.70 G
Power play
0 G0.6
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL61%39%NYI

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.29 – 2.65

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsNYI
36
Shots on goal
27
62%
Faceoffs
38%
0/3
Power play
0/3
8
Penalty minutes
8
48
Hits
48
17
Blocked shots
17
11
Giveaways
17
4
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD000+240.13020—29:07
86N. KucherovR022+230.66120—19:40
71A. CirelliC000030.304105018:50
21B. PointC112+250.731107018:24
17A. KillornL000010.12320—18:17
18O. PalatL112+250.57402—18:04
98M. SergachevD000030.13100—18:03
27R. McDonaghD000+110.07142—17:02
22K. ShattenkirkD000+200.00512—16:28
19B. GoodrowC000000.003006716:25
81E. CernakD000-120.12420—16:13
20B. ColemanL101030.33300—16:01
37Y. GourdeC022+120.221025015:14
9T. JohnsonC000000.002007512:39
24Z. BogosianD000+100.02100—12:09
14P. MaroonL101+130.57100—10:40
2L. SchennD000+100.00610—10:26
13C. PaquetteC011+110.227108310:18
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)27261.9632.69+1.6960:00

Series

TBL leads 4-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).