Avalanche at Stars 4-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Colorado Avalanche

▸4

Dallas Stars

FinalTV NHL.TV, NHLN·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Dallas Stars 4-0. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Joonas Donskoi's goal at 15:29 of the first period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 62% to 77%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 4.4 to 3.1; shots on goal were COL 40, DAL 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 71% of the time. Pavel Francouz stopped 27 of 27 (1.000), 3.1 goals saved above expected; Anton Khudobin stopped 36 of 40 (.900). Three stars: 1. Pavel Francouz (27 saves, 1.000), 2. Andre Burakovsky (1 G, 1 A), 3. Joonas Donskoi (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

★
P. Francouz27 saves, 1.000
★★
A. Burakovsky1 G, 1 A
★★★
J. Donskoi1 G, 1 A

Line score

Final

Goals by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	2	1	1	4
DAL	0	0	0	0

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

C. Makar(1)PPG
G. Landeskog (2), N. Kadri (1)
slapxG 0.05win prob +9 pts
1-0
3:19
J. Donskoi(1)
S. Girard (1), A. Burakovsky (1)
backhandxG 0.18win prob +15 pts
2-0
15:29

2nd period

V. Namestnikov(1)
N. MacKinnon (2), M. Rantanen (2)
slapxG 0.16win prob +9 pts
3-0
17:30

3rd period

A. Burakovsky(1)PPG
S. Girard (2), J. Donskoi (1)
wristxG 0.04win prob +2 pts
4-0
1:31

Penalties

4 PIM·

10 PIM

1st

2:46Esa Lindell · Interferencedrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
13:28Tyler Seguin · Trippingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min
17:34Samuel Girard · Cross checkingdrawn by Miro Heiskanen2 min

2nd

1:24Roope Hintz · Hookingdrawn by Valeri Nichushkin2 min
19:48Mattias Janmark · Trippingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min

3rd

2:53Alexander Radulov · Trippingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
10:58Gabriel Landeskog · Cross checkingdrawn by Andrew Cogliano2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: DAL

Biggest swing: Joonas Donskoi, 1st 15:29 — COL 62% → 77%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 3.1 xG · 40 att

←

attacks

attacks →

4 G · 4.4 xG · 56 att DAL

0 G · 3.1 xG · 40 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

4.44 G
All situations: 0 G3.1; 3.42 G
Even strength: 0 G2.5; 1.02 G
Power play: 0 G0.5; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 96 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

71%29%

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.36 – 2.97

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Box score

every player line

Colorado Avalanche skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
8C. MakarD	1	0	1	0	3	0.39	0	0	0	—	21:51
96M. RantanenR	0	1	1	+1	3	0.55	1	0	0	33	20:33
92G. LandeskogL	0	1	1	0	3	0.28	2	0	2	—	19:59
27R. GravesD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.04	1	1	0	—	19:58
29N. MacKinnonC	0	1	1	+1	6	1.13	2	0	0	58	19:44
91N. KadriC	0	1	1	0	3	0.21	0	0	0	42	19:20
49S. GirardD	0	2	2	+1	1	0.05	0	0	2	—	18:46
28I. ColeD	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	2	1	0	—	18:35
6E. JohnsonD	0	0	0	+2	3	0.05	0	0	0	—	17:15
16N. ZadorovD	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	2	1	0	—	16:17
13V. NichushkinR	0	0	0	0	2	0.12	2	0	0	—	14:19
83M. NietoL	0	0	0	0	0	0.09	4	0	0	—	14:15
11M. CalvertL	0	0	0	0	3	0.33	1	0	0	—	13:29
41P. BellemareL	0	0	0	0	2	0.12	0	0	0	29	13:27
90V. NamestnikovC	1	0	1	+1	3	0.20	3	1	0	0	12:53
72J. DonskoiR	1	1	2	+1	2	0.33	1	0	0	50	11:56
37J. CompherL	0	0	0	+1	2	0.27	1	0	0	77	11:47
95A. BurakovskyL	1	1	2	+1	2	0.18	0	0	0	—	11:34

Colorado Avalanche goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
39P. Francouz(W)	27	27	0	1.000	3.06	+3.06	59:41

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score