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Stars at Golden Knights
NHL

Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
3
Vegas Golden Knights
▸5
FinalTV NHL.TV, NHLN·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Vegas Golden Knights beat the Dallas Stars 5-3. The Golden Knights came back from two goals down. The Stars led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was William Carrier's goal at 14:47 of the third period, which took the Golden Knights' chances from 52% to 90%. Expected goals favored the Golden Knights, 3.5 to 2.4; shots on goal were DAL 27, VGK 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Golden Knights win a replay of these chances 64% of the time. Ben Bishop stopped 28 of 32 (.875), 0.8 goals below expected; Robin Lehner stopped 24 of 27 (.889), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mark Stone (1 G, 1 A), 2. Nate Schmidt (1 G, 1 A), 3. Miro Heiskanen (3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    VGK
    M. Stone1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    VGK
    N. Schmidt1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    M. Heiskanen3 A

Line score

Final
Goals by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL0303
VGKVGK1045

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. VGK
    C. Stephenson(1)
    W. Karlsson (1), M. Stone (1)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    1:04

2nd period

  1. DAL
    J. Pavelski(1)
    M. Janmark (1), M. Heiskanen (1)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +17 pts
    1-1
    7:50
  2. DAL
    J. Oleksiak(1)
    B. Comeau (1), M. Heiskanen (2)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +18 pts
    2-1
    8:32
  3. DAL
    C. Perry(1)PPG
    M. Heiskanen (3), R. Hintz (1)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +15 pts
    3-1
    12:42

3rd period

  1. VGK
    M. Stone(1)
    N. Cousins (1), Z. Whitecloud (1)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +14 pts
    3-2
    9:46
  2. VGK
    N. Schmidt(1)
    R. Smith (1)
    snapxG 0.05win prob +34 pts
    3-3
    11:15
  3. VGK
    W. Carrier(1)
    N. Schmidt (1), R. Reaves (1)
    backhandxG 0.17win prob +38 pts
    3-4
    14:47
  4. VGK
    W. Karlsson(1)EN
    N. Roy (1)
    wristxG 0.26win prob +2 pts
    3-5
    19:39

Penalties

DAL 4 PIM·VGK 2 PIM

1st

  • 2:03DALMattias Janmark · Boardingdrawn by Alec Martinez2 min
  • 15:31DALCorey Perry · Slashingdrawn by Nick Cousins2 min

2nd

  • 11:07VGKShea Theodore · Hookingdrawn by Mattias Janmark2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
VGK goalDAL goalFinal: VGK 100%

Biggest swing: William Carrier, 3rd 14:47 — VGK 52% → 90%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
W. Karlsson · Goal · xG 0.26W. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.19C. Stephenson · On goal · xG 0.18P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.17W. Carrier · Goal · xG 0.17A. Martinez · Missed · xG 0.17W. Karlsson · Missed · xG 0.15N. Schmidt · On goal · xG 0.14W. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.13N. Schmidt · On goal · xG 0.13M. Stone · Goal · xG 0.13A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.11R. Smith · On goal · xG 0.11J. Marchessault · Missed · xG 0.11J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.10N. Schmidt · On goal · xG 0.10P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.10A. Martinez · On goal · xG 0.10R. Smith · On goal · xG 0.09W. Karlsson · Missed · xG 0.08B. McNabb · On goal · xG 0.07C. Stephenson · Missed · xG 0.07P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.06W. Karlsson · Missed · xG 0.05P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.05N. Schmidt · On goal · xG 0.05N. Schmidt · Goal · xG 0.05P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.04N. Schmidt · Missed · xG 0.04W. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.03S. Theodore · Missed · xG 0.03M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.03J. Marchessault · Missed · xG 0.03A. Martinez · Missed · xG 0.03N. Schmidt · Missed · xG 0.02W. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.02W. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Whitecloud · On goal · xG 0.02C. Stephenson · Goal · xG 0.02N. Holden · Missed · xG 0.02A. Martinez · On goal · xG 0.01W. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.01W. Karlsson · Missed · xG 0.01N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.01R. Reaves · On goal · xG 0.00B. McNabb · Missed · xG 0.00J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.00
VGK5 G · 3.5 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsVGK
2.43 G
All situations
4 G3.5
2.12 G
Even strength
4 G2.8
0.31 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 83 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL36%64%VGK

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.39 – 3.22

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4M. HeiskanenD033+110.10010—23:14
23E. LindellD000-340.13210—22:32
3J. KlingbergD000-310.05010—21:10
2J. OleksiakD101+230.08130—19:54
91T. SeguinC000-300.002105317:00
5A. SekeraD000-200.03020—16:30
18J. DickinsonC000-110.153105016:25
24R. HintzC011020.33210016:10
10C. PerryR101-230.33312—15:50
13M. JanmarkC011030.25202015:39
28S. JohnsD000-110.03410—15:36
16J. PavelskiC101-120.300005715:08
34D. GurianovR000-300.06400—15:00
14J. BennL000-300.175106314:53
47A. RadulovR000010.05200—14:42
12R. FaksaC000+120.251004414:34
15B. ComeauL011+110.00220—12:17
11A. CoglianoC000+120.0930010011:06
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30B. Bishop(L)32284.8753.23-0.7758:53

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).