Predators at Stars 1-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Nashville Predators

▸1

Dallas Stars

FinalTV ESPN+, FS-SW·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Dallas Stars 1-0. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ryan Ellis's goal at 10:29 of the second period, which took the Predators' chances from 48% to 66%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 4.1 to 3.1; shots on goal were NSH 23, DAL 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 37 of 37 (1.000), 3.1 goals saved above expected; Ben Bishop stopped 22 of 23 (.957), 1.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Juuse Saros (37 saves, 1.000), 2. Ryan Ellis (1 G), 3. Roman Josi.

Three stars

★
J. Saros37 saves, 1.000
★★
R. Ellis1 G
★★★
R. Josi

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	07	111	05	123
DAL	09	014	014	037

Scoring

1 goal

2nd period

R. Ellis(8)PPG
M. Duchene (29), V. Arvidsson (12)
wristxG 0.02win prob +18 pts
1-0
10:29

Penalties

8 PIM·

8 PIM

1st

8:34Corey Perry · Roughingdrawn by Jarred Tinordi2 min
8:34Jarred Tinordi · Roughingdrawn by Corey Perry2 min
10:49John Klingberg · Hookingdrawn by Nick Bonino2 min
17:56Yakov Trenin · Roughingdrawn by Corey Perry2 min

2nd

4:57Korbinian Holzer · Roughingdrawn by Radek Faksa2 min
4:57Radek Faksa · Roughingdrawn by Korbinian Holzer2 min
8:32Jamie Oleksiak · Interferencedrawn by Rocco Grimaldi2 min
15:22Roman Josi · High stickingdrawn by Corey Perry2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: DAL

Biggest swing: Ryan Ellis, 2nd 10:29 — NSH 48% → 66%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 3.1 xG · 53 att

←

attacks

attacks →

1 G · 4.1 xG · 44 att DAL

0 G · 3.1 xG · 53 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

4.11 G
All situations: 0 G3.1; 2.40 G
Even strength: 0 G2.7; 0.31 G
Power play: 0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 97 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

42%58%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.65 – 3.10

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

23
Shots on goal: 37; 46%
Faceoffs: 54%; 1/2
Power play: 0/2; 8
Penalty minutes: 8; 10
Hits: 33; 27
Blocked shots: 15; 10
Giveaways: 13; 6
Takeaways: 4

Box score

every player line

Nashville Predators skaters
Skater	G	A	P	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
4R. EllisD	1	0	1	2	0.06	1	6	0	—	25:45
59R. JosiD	0	0	0	2	0.05	0	0	2	—	24:10
14M. EkholmD	0	0	0	3	0.19	0	3	0	—	21:50
64M. GranlundC	0	0	0	1	1.57	0	1	0	33	20:53
57D. FabbroD	0	0	0	1	0.01	2	2	0	—	20:50
95M. DucheneC	0	1	1	2	0.43	0	1	0	58	17:02
92R. JohansenC	0	0	0	0	0.10	1	2	0	54	16:18
13N. BoninoC	0	0	0	0	0.09	0	1	0	33	15:56
10C. SissonsC	0	0	0	0	0.08	0	0	0	0	15:14
9F. ForsbergL	0	0	0	5	0.66	1	3	0	—	15:06
8K. TurrisC	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	2	0	25	14:18
19C. JarnkrokC	0	0	0	2	0.10	0	2	0	0	13:58
15C. SmithC	0	0	0	3	0.29	0	0	0	0	13:51
22K. HolzerD	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	3	2	—	13:09
33V. ArvidssonL	0	1	1	1	0.19	0	0	0	—	12:26
23R. GrimaldiR	0	0	0	1	0.27	0	1	0	—	11:33
24J. TinordiD	0	0	0	0	0.01	2	0	2	—	11:05
32Y. TreninC	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	2	100	08:36

Nashville Predators goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
74J. Saros(W)	37	37	0	1.000	3.12	+3.12	60:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Nashville Predators at Dallas Stars

2nd period

1st

2nd

Box score