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Sabres at Senators
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
4
Ottawa Senators
▸7
FinalTV MSG-B, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Buffalo Sabres 7-4. The Senators came back from two goals down. The Senators led 5-4 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Vladislav Namestnikov's goal at 14:02 of the first period, which took the Senators' chances from 24% to 39%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 4.1 to 2.8; shots on goal were BUF 27, OTT 40. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Carter Hutton stopped 33 of 39 (.846), 2.9 goals below expected; Craig Anderson stopped 23 of 27 (.852), 1.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jean-Gabriel Pageau (2 G, 2 A), 2. Artem Anisimov (2 G), 3. Craig Anderson (23 saves, .852).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    J. Pageau2 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    OTT
    A. Anisimov2 G
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    C. Anderson23 saves, .852

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF2122708427
OTTOTT41511629740

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    B. Montour(4)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.10win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    2:14
  2. BUF
    B. Montour(5)
    R. Ristolainen (24), V. Olofsson (21)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +16 pts
    2-0
    10:12
  3. OTT
    V. Namestnikov(13)SHG
    J. Pageau (15), M. Reilly (10)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    14:02
  4. OTT
    A. Anisimov(12)
    N. Paul (8), S. Sabourin (3)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +14 pts
    2-2
    15:07
  5. OTT
    D. Batherson(3)
    C. White (11), T. Ennis (18)
    backhandxG 0.17win prob +14 pts
    2-3
    15:16
  6. OTT
    A. Anisimov(13)PPG
    T. Ennis (19), M. Reilly (11)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +13 pts
    2-4
    17:31

2nd period

  1. BUF
    K. Okposo(7)
    J. Larsson (10), B. Montour (11)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +15 pts
    3-4
    2:36
  2. OTT
    J. Pageau(23)
    A. Duclair (15), B. Tkachuk (19)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +16 pts
    3-5
    9:00
  3. BUF
    V. Olofsson(19)PPG
    R. Dahlin (32), J. Eichel (42)
    slapxG 0.08win prob +12 pts
    4-5
    13:47

3rd period

  1. OTT
    J. Pageau(24)PPG
    B. Tkachuk (20), D. Batherson (7)
    snapxG 0.21win prob +8 pts
    4-6
    12:53
  2. OTT
    A. Duclair(22)EN
    J. Pageau (16)
    wristxG 0.91
    4-7
    19:14

Penalties

BUF 4 PIM·OTT 8 PIM

1st

  • 12:05OTTRon Hainsey · Hookingdrawn by Marcus Johansson2 min
  • 15:45BUFJeff Skinner · Slashingdrawn by Thomas Chabot2 min

2nd

  • 12:54OTTserved by B. Tkachuk · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 16:05OTTMike Reilly · Hookingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min

3rd

  • 12:21BUFJake McCabe · Hookingdrawn by Drake Batherson2 min
  • 17:35OTTVladislav Namestnikov · Trippingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalBUF goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Vladislav Namestnikov, 1st 14:02 — OTT 24% → 39%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Duclair · Goal · xG 0.91J. Pageau · Goal · xG 0.21V. Namestnikov · Goal · xG 0.19D. Batherson · Goal · xG 0.17A. Anisimov · On goal · xG 0.16A. Anisimov · Goal · xG 0.14T. Ennis · Missed · xG 0.13B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.13D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.12A. Duclair · Missed · xG 0.12T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.11C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.11B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.11J. Pageau · Goal · xG 0.11J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.10B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.09B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.09J. Pageau · Missed · xG 0.09A. Anisimov · Goal · xG 0.08C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.06A. Duclair · Missed · xG 0.06C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.06J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.06A. Anisimov · On goal · xG 0.06C. Tierney · Missed · xG 0.05M. Reilly · On goal · xG 0.05M. Reilly · On goal · xG 0.05N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.05A. Anisimov · On goal · xG 0.04B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.04J. Pageau · Missed · xG 0.03N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.03M. Reilly · On goal · xG 0.03T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.02T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.02C. Brown · Missed · xG 0.02N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.02R. Hainsey · Missed · xG 0.02T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.01N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · Missed · xG 0.01T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.01M. Reilly · Missed · xG 0.01M. Reilly · On goal · xG 0.01V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.01C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.01C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.01M. Reilly · On goal · xG 0.01S. Sabourin · Missed · xG 0.01M. Reilly · Missed · xG 0.01J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.01M. Reilly · On goal · xG 0.00T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT7 G · 4.1 xG · 53 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsOTT
2.84 G
All situations
6 G4.1
2.33 G
Even strength
3 G2.3
0.51 G
Power play
2 G0.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 102 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF44%56%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.72 – 3.08

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsOTT
27
Shots on goal
40
41%
Faceoffs
59%
1/4
Power play
2/2
4
Penalty minutes
8
16
Hits
30
11
Blocked shots
9
8
Giveaways
8
1
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55R. RistolainenD011+110.29010—25:49
9J. EichelC011-130.261004122:54
23S. ReinhartC000-110.18000022:01
68V. OlofssonL112-160.57000—21:40
62B. MontourD213+220.13020—21:23
26R. DahlinD011-210.05210—19:26
10H. JokiharjuD000-100.00210—18:59
19J. McCabeD000-230.13112—17:31
90M. JohanssonL000-210.090205016:14
33C. MillerD000-220.06410—16:09
53J. SkinnerL000020.37002—14:32
43C. ShearyL000-100.0000010013:07
22J. LarssonL011+110.111005012:40
13J. VeseyL000-100.01200—12:28
21K. OkposoR101010.14000—12:00
71E. RodriguesC000030.290004211:21
27C. LazarC000-100.052103611:16
28Z. GirgensonsC000000.02110010:15
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40C. Hutton(L)39336.8463.15-2.8557:57

Season series

OTT leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).