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Senators at Sabres
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
2
Buffalo Sabres
▸4
FinalTV MSG-B, SN1·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Ottawa Senators 4-2. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jack Eichel's goal at 12:13 of the third period, which took the Sabres' chances from 52% to 86%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.4 to 1.7; shots on goal were OTT 23, BUF 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 63% of the time. Craig Anderson stopped 28 of 31 (.903), 0.6 goals below expected; Linus Ullmark stopped 21 of 23 (.913). Three stars: 1. Jack Eichel (4 G), 2. Sam Reinhart (2 A), 3. Jeff Skinner (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    J. Eichel4 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    S. Reinhart2 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    J. Skinner1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT051919223
BUFBUF01326213432

Scoring

6 goals

2nd period

  1. BUF
    J. Eichel(9)
    S. Reinhart (8), R. Dahlin (12)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +16 pts
    0-1
    1:28
  2. OTT
    A. Duclair(7)PPG
    L. Brown (3), T. Chabot (10)
    slapxG 0.14win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    6:04
  3. BUF
    J. Eichel(10)
    V. Olofsson (7), S. Reinhart (9)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +18 pts
    1-2
    9:39

3rd period

  1. OTT
    T. Ennis(5)
    R. Hainsey (3), V. Namestnikov (6)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +24 pts
    2-2
    2:01
  2. BUF
    J. Eichel(11)
    J. Skinner (5)
    slapxG 0.14win prob +34 pts
    2-3
    12:13
  3. BUF
    J. Eichel(12)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.64win prob +2 pts
    2-4
    19:46

Penalties

OTT 4 PIM·BUF 6 PIM

1st

  • 3:51BUFJake McCabe · Holdingdrawn by Nick Paul2 min
  • 7:56OTTDylan DeMelo · Holdingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min
  • 11:13OTTTyler Ennis · Hookingdrawn by Jack Eichel2 min

2nd

  • 3:58BUFRasmus Ristolainen · Boardingdrawn by Jean-Gabriel Pageau2 min
  • 5:09BUFHenri Jokiharju · Slashingdrawn by Tyler Ennis2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalOTT goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Jack Eichel, 3rd 12:13 — BUF 52% → 86%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Eichel · Goal · xG 0.64Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.39V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.16V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.14V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.14J. Eichel · Goal · xG 0.14S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.13V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.11R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.10C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.10J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.09S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.09J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.09E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.08K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.08J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.08J. Vesey · On goal · xG 0.08Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.07J. Eichel · Goal · xG 0.07J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.06B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.06V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.05C. Sheary · Missed · xG 0.05J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.04M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.04J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.03J. Vesey · Missed · xG 0.03C. Sheary · Missed · xG 0.03R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.02V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.02J. Vesey · On goal · xG 0.02J. Eichel · Goal · xG 0.02J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.02H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.02E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.02B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.01R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.01R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.01J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.01M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.01M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.01B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.01R. Ristolainen · Missed · xG 0.01J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF4 G · 3.4 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsBUF
1.72 G
All situations
3 G3.4
1.41 G
Even strength
3 G1.6
0.31 G
Power play
0 G0.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 75 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT37%63%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.74 – 2.41

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsBUF
23
Shots on goal
32
52%
Faceoffs
48%
1/3
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
13
Hits
18
12
Blocked shots
12
12
Giveaways
7
2
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD011-310.06000—25:01
22N. ZaitsevD000-200.00110—21:03
2D. DeMeloD000-120.01022—20:29
7B. TkachukL000-230.36210—19:32
74M. BorowieckiD000-110.02300—19:24
10A. DuclairL101-220.32000—18:29
21L. BrownC011-120.033106717:37
28C. BrownR000-230.17020—17:21
44J. PageauC000-410.020005616:59
26E. BrannstromD000020.14120—16:44
13N. PaulL000-230.291003016:25
81R. HainseyD011+100.00010—15:07
36C. WhiteC000000.000004214:18
90V. NamestnikovC011+100.0001010013:31
63T. EnnisR101+120.26102—13:05
9B. RyanR000010.07110—12:10
71C. TierneyC000+100.000006711:27
78F. ChlapikC000000.00000008:45
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41C. Anderson(L)31283.9032.41-0.5958:33

Season series

OTT leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).