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Predators at Penguins
NHL

Nashville Predators at Pittsburgh Penguins

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
4
Pittsburgh Penguins
▸6
FinalTV ESPN+, ATTSN-PT·PPG Paints Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Pittsburgh Penguins beat the Nashville Predators 6-4. The Penguins scored first and never trailed. The Penguins led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jake Guentzel's goal at 18:57 of the third period, which took the Penguins' chances from 59% to 97%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 4.0 to 3.6; shots on goal were NSH 48, PIT 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Pekka Rinne stopped 25 of 27 (.926); Matt Murray stopped 44 of 48 (.917). Three stars: 1. Jake Guentzel (1 G, 1 A), 2. Mikael Granlund (2 G), 3. Alex Galchenyuk (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    PIT
    J. Guentzel1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    M. Granlund2 G
  3. ★★★
    PIT
    A. Galchenyuk1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH010317121448
PITPIT31719210636

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. PIT
    B. Rust(15)
    J. Guentzel (21), E. Malkin (24)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    0:32
  2. PIT
    D. Kahun(9)
    A. Galchenyuk (9), J. Riikola (3)
    wristxG 0.24win prob +13 pts
    0-2
    1:05
  3. PIT
    K. Letang(10)PPG
    E. Malkin (25), B. Rust (13)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +8 pts
    0-3
    9:04

2nd period

  1. NSH
    V. Arvidsson(9)PPG
    C. Jarnkrok (15), R. Josi (23)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +7 pts
    1-3
    4:07
  2. PIT
    A. Galchenyuk(4)PPG
    J. Marino (13), J. Riikola (4)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +7 pts
    1-4
    8:02
  3. NSH
    C. Smith(7)
    C. Blackwell (2), R. Josi (24)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +7 pts
    2-4
    16:03
  4. NSH
    M. Granlund(5)
    M. Duchene (17), F. Forsberg (13)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +16 pts
    3-4
    19:01

3rd period

  1. NSH
    M. Granlund(6)
    M. Duchene (18), R. Josi (25)
    backhandxG 0.14win prob +29 pts
    4-4
    8:56
  2. PIT
    J. Guentzel(19)PPG
    E. Malkin (26), B. Rust (14)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +39 pts
    4-5
    18:57
  3. PIT
    B. Rust(16)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.64win prob +2 pts
    4-6
    19:22

Penalties

NSH 8 PIM·PIT 4 PIM

1st

  • 8:01NSHKyle Turris · High stickingdrawn by John Marino2 min

2nd

  • 3:41PITSam Lafferty · High stickingdrawn by Mattias Ekholm2 min
  • 4:31NSHKyle Turris · Hookingdrawn by Evgeni Malkin2 min
  • 6:53NSHserved by C. Smith · Too many men on the ice2 min

3rd

  • 4:37PITEvgeni Malkin · Hookingdrawn by Matt Duchene2 min
  • 18:34NSHAustin Watson · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Matt Murray2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PIT goalNSH goalFinal: PIT 100%

Biggest swing: Jake Guentzel, 3rd 18:57 — PIT 59% → 97%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Rust · Goal · xG 0.64Z. Aston-Reese · On goal · xG 0.33D. Kahun · Goal · xG 0.24B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.20D. Simon · On goal · xG 0.20B. Rust · Goal · xG 0.19J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.18E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.16J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.14E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.13A. Galchenyuk · Goal · xG 0.12E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.12J. Guentzel · Goal · xG 0.12P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.10E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.09J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.09J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.07J. McCann · On goal · xG 0.06S. Lafferty · On goal · xG 0.05J. Riikola · On goal · xG 0.04T. Blueger · On goal · xG 0.04K. Letang · Goal · xG 0.04B. Tanev · On goal · xG 0.03E. Malkin · Missed · xG 0.03J. McCann · On goal · xG 0.03S. Lafferty · On goal · xG 0.02J. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.02J. Marino · On goal · xG 0.02J. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.02J. Marino · On goal · xG 0.02P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.01M. Pettersson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.01K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.01K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.01J. Riikola · On goal · xG 0.01M. Pettersson · On goal · xG 0.01K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.01T. Blueger · On goal · xG 0.01
PIT6 G · 3.6 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsPIT
4.04 G
All situations
5 G3.6
3.13 G
Even strength
2 G2.6
0.91 G
Power play
3 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 98 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH66%34%PIT

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.92 – 2.90

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsPIT
48
Shots on goal
36
49%
Faceoffs
51%
1/2
Power play
3/4
8
Penalty minutes
4
29
Hits
31
7
Blocked shots
16
6
Giveaways
8
6
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4R. EllisD000+120.09300—26:43
59R. JosiD033+130.13010—26:43
14M. EkholmD000-140.12110—23:48
57D. FabbroD000-100.00110—20:45
9F. ForsbergL011+130.38100—18:40
92R. JohansenC000-220.361105016:47
95M. DucheneC022+191.134004416:25
19C. JarnkrokC011-140.26010016:06
33V. ArvidssonL101-240.46200—16:04
64M. GranlundC202+220.36100016:01
8K. TurrisC000+120.150044514:18
13N. BoninoC000-120.071006013:10
51A. WatsonL000-100.00522—12:51
42C. BlackwellC011+140.22500012:39
23R. GrimaldiR000-110.06200—12:26
15C. SmithC101+140.18000011:41
24J. TinordiD000000.00200—11:35
7Y. WeberD000020.05000—09:31
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35P. Rinne(L)27252.9262.24+0.2450:08
74J. Saros853.6250.75-2.2509:04

Season series

PIT leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).