Penguins at Stars 3-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Pittsburgh Penguins

▸3

Dallas Stars

FinalTV ESPN+, ATTSN-PT·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Pittsburgh Penguins beat the Dallas Stars 3-0. The Penguins scored first and never trailed. It was tied 0-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Dominik Kahun's goal at 7:29 of the third period, which took the Penguins' chances from 48% to 78%. Expected goals favored the Penguins, 3.4 to 1.8; shots on goal were PIT 27, DAL 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Penguins win a replay of these chances 67% of the time. Matt Murray stopped 25 of 25 (1.000), 1.8 goals saved above expected; Ben Bishop stopped 24 of 26 (.923), 0.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Matt Murray (25 saves, 1.000), 2. Bryan Rust (1 G), 3. Dominik Kahun (1 G).

Three stars

★
M. Murray25 saves, 1.000
★★
B. Rust1 G
★★★
D. Kahun1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	06	05	316	327
DAL	012	010	03	025

Scoring

3 goals

3rd period

D. Kahun(1)
S. Lafferty (3)
snapxG 0.04win prob +30 pts
1-0
7:29
B. Rust(1)
J. Marino (1), P. Hornqvist (4)
wristxG 0.25win prob +15 pts
2-0
9:07
B. Tanev(3)EN
J. Guentzel (6), T. Blueger (3)
wristxG 0.36
3-0
18:46

Penalties

4 PIM·

0 PIM

1st

18:53Marcus Pettersson · Interferencedrawn by Andrew Cogliano2 min

2nd

9:17Kris Letang · Trippingdrawn by Denis Gurianov2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: DAL

Biggest swing: Dominik Kahun, 3rd 7:29 — PIT 48% → 78%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 1.8 xG · 35 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 3.4 xG · 41 att DAL

0 G · 1.8 xG · 35 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.42 G
All situations: 0 G1.8; 2.62 G
Even strength: 0 G1.4; 0.00 G
Power play: 0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 76 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

67%33%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.63 – 1.77

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

27
Shots on goal: 25; 44%
Faceoffs: 56%; 0/0
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 0; 21
Hits: 16; 22
Blocked shots: 17; 12
Giveaways: 22; 6
Takeaways: 3

Box score

every player line

Pittsburgh Penguins skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
58K. LetangD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.02	1	2	2	—	25:18
3J. JohnsonD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	2	1	0	—	22:29
59J. GuentzelC	0	1	1	+1	2	0.60	1	2	0	0	20:39
12D. SimonC	0	0	0	0	3	0.24	0	2	0	0	19:23
87S. CrosbyC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	0	0	41	19:18
28M. PetterssonD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	5	2	—	18:25
6J. MarinoD	0	1	1	+2	2	0.06	1	0	0	—	18:20
4J. SchultzD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.01	0	0	0	—	18:08
50J. RiikolaD	0	0	0	0	1	0.23	3	2	0	—	17:35
17B. RustR	1	0	1	+1	1	0.25	0	2	0	—	16:51
27N. BjugstadC	0	0	0	+1	5	0.26	1	1	0	42	15:08
72P. HornqvistR	0	1	1	+1	2	0.05	2	3	0	—	14:44
53T. BluegerC	0	1	1	+1	3	0.10	0	0	0	50	14:02
13B. TanevL	1	0	1	+1	1	0.36	3	0	0	—	13:42
46Z. Aston-ReeseL	0	0	0	0	0	0.54	0	1	0	—	12:52
37S. LaffertyC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.15	4	1	0	44	11:18
19J. McCannL	0	0	0	+1	3	0.48	0	0	0	50	09:50
24D. KahunC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.04	0	0	0	0	07:57

Pittsburgh Penguins goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
30M. Murray(W)	25	25	0	1.000	1.78	+1.78	60:00

Season series

PIT leads 2-0

Oct 182@4Final
Oct 263@0this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Pittsburgh Penguins at Dallas Stars

3rd period

1st

2nd

Box score