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Predators at Lightning
NHL

Nashville Predators at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
▸3
Tampa Bay Lightning
2
Final/OTTV ESPN+, FS-TN·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 3-2 in overtime, Ryan Ellis scoring at 3:15. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Lightning led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ryan Ellis's goal at 3:15 of overtime, which took the Predators' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals were close — NSH 2.6, TBL 2.5; shots on goal were NSH 40, TBL 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 28 of 30 (.933), 0.5 goals saved above expected; Curtis McElhinney stopped 37 of 40 (.925). Three stars: 1. Ryan Ellis (1 G), 2. Roman Josi (1 G, 2 A), 3. Steven Stamkos (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    R. Ellis1 G
  2. ★★
    NSH
    R. Josi1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    S. Stamkos1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
NSHNSH11201211412340
TBLTBL072150800230

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    C. Jarnkrok(3)PPG
    R. Josi (7), R. Johansen (7)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +10 pts
    1-0
    14:24

2nd period

  1. TBL
    S. Stamkos(5)PPG
    O. Palat (2), N. Kucherov (7)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +11 pts
    1-1
    0:32
  2. TBL
    T. Johnson(3)
    B. Point (3), V. Hedman (7)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +18 pts
    1-2
    9:25

3rd period

  1. NSH
    R. Josi(5)PPG
    C. Jarnkrok (6), R. Johansen (8)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +30 pts
    2-2
    14:47

Overtime

  1. NSH
    R. Ellis(2)
    R. Josi (8), C. Sissons (4)
    snapxG 0.05win prob +51 pts
    3-2
    3:15

Penalties

NSH 8 PIM·TBL 10 PIM

1st

  • 5:28TBLLuke Witkowski · Holdingdrawn by Miikka Salomaki2 min
  • 13:54TBLOndrej Palat · Trippingdrawn by Dante Fabbro2 min

2nd

  • 0:26NSHRyan Johansen · Slashingdrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min
  • 1:54NSHMatt Irwin · Slashingdrawn by Luke Witkowski2 min
  • 6:17TBLserved by P. Maroon · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 12:14NSHNick Bonino · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

3rd

  • 4:11NSHRoman Josi · Cross checkingdrawn by Ryan McDonagh2 min
  • 14:31TBLRyan McDonagh · Interferencedrawn by Calle Jarnkrok2 min

OT

  • 1:11TBLserved by M. Joseph · Too many men on the ice2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalNSH goalFinal: TBL 0%

Biggest swing: Ryan Ellis, OT 3:15 — NSH 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.18N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.17B. Point · On goal · xG 0.16A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.16Y. Gourde · Missed · xG 0.14S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.13T. Johnson · Goal · xG 0.12B. Point · On goal · xG 0.10T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.10S. Stamkos · Goal · xG 0.10T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.08A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.08S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.08Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.07A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.06N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.06O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.06B. Point · Missed · xG 0.06B. Point · On goal · xG 0.05O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.05E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.04P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.04V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.04M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.03B. Point · On goal · xG 0.03B. Coburn · On goal · xG 0.03L. Witkowski · Missed · xG 0.03Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.03E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.03M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.03V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.02V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.02O. Palat · Missed · xG 0.02A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.02B. Coburn · On goal · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.02A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.02V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.02A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.01M. Joseph · Missed · xG 0.01A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.01
TBL2 G · 2.5 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsTBL
2.63 G
All situations
2 G2.5
1.71 G
Even strength
1 G2.1
0.72 G
Power play
1 G0.3
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 97 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH51%49%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.57 – 2.53

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsTBL
40
Shots on goal
30
46%
Faceoffs
54%
2/5
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
10
19
Hits
18
12
Blocked shots
9
5
Giveaways
9
10
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59R. JosiD123+160.33322—27:54
14M. EkholmD000-140.19100—24:39
4R. EllisD101+110.06210—24:06
92R. JohansenC022020.240124423:14
33V. ArvidssonL000000.06120—20:24
64M. GranlundC000030.240405019:35
57D. FabbroD000010.01010—19:11
19C. JarnkrokC112050.30100019:09
10C. SissonsC011+120.063005417:27
8K. TurrisC000+140.260006016:54
5D. HamhuisD000020.03200—15:59
13N. BoninoC000-120.210123615:24
23R. GrimaldiR000020.08000—14:55
15C. SmithC000-120.11000013:01
52M. IrwinD000-100.02402—10:34
51A. WatsonL000020.25200—10:10
20M. SalomakiR000000.00000—08:57
90A. RichardC000-120.11000004:10
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74J. Saros(W)30282.9332.53+0.5363:15

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).