Islanders at Capitals 3-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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New York Islanders

▸3

Washington Capitals

FinalTV MSG+, NBCSWA·Capital One Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Washington Capitals 3-0. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. The Islanders led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Valtteri Filppula's goal at 2:55 of the second period, which took the Islanders' chances from 47% to 63%. Expected goals favored the Capitals, 2.4 to 2.0; shots on goal were NYI 24, WSH 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Capitals win a replay of these chances 67% of the time. Robin Lehner stopped 29 of 29 (1.000), 2.4 goals saved above expected; Pheonix Copley stopped 21 of 23 (.913). Three stars: 1. Valtteri Filppula (2 G), 2. Robin Lehner (29 saves, 1.000), 3. Devon Toews (1 A).

Three stars

★
V. Filppula2 G
★★
R. Lehner29 saves, 1.000
★★★
D. Toews1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	08	16	210	324
WSH	08	010	011	029

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

V. Filppula(16)
D. Toews (13), A. Beauvillier (10)
wristxG 0.19win prob +16 pts
1-0
2:55

3rd period

V. Filppula(17)
A. Pelech (16), L. Komarov (20)
tip-inxG 0.07win prob +15 pts
2-0
10:54
M. Martin(6)EN
C. Cizikas (13), C. Clutterbuck (15)
wristxG 0.49win prob +1 pts
3-0
17:27

Penalties

4 PIM·

2 PIM

2nd

4:50Carl Hagelin · Hookingdrawn by Scott Mayfield2 min
13:23Devon Toews · Holdingdrawn by Nic Dowd2 min

3rd

6:30Ryan Pulock · Hookingdrawn by Alex Ovechkin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: WSH

Biggest swing: Valtteri Filppula, 2nd 2:55 — NYI 47% → 63%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 2.4 xG · 44 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 2.0 xG · 29 att WSH

0 G · 2.4 xG · 44 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.02 G
All situations: 0 G2.4; 1.42 G
Even strength: 0 G1.8; 0.10 G
Power play: 0 G0.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 73 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

33%67%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.52 – 2.38

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

24
Shots on goal: 29; 52%
Faceoffs: 48%; 0/1
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 2; 24
Hits: 22; 14
Blocked shots: 11; 11
Giveaways: 16; 8
Takeaways: 13

Box score

every player line

New York Islanders skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
2N. LeddyD	0	0	0	+2	1	0.01	0	0	0	—	21:01
55J. BoychukD	0	0	0	+2	0	0.00	1	3	0	—	20:52
6R. PulockD	0	0	0	0	3	0.09	0	2	2	—	20:44
3A. PelechD	0	1	1	+1	2	0.03	0	0	0	—	20:02
25D. ToewsD	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	0	2	—	19:27
24S. MayfieldD	0	0	0	0	0	0.03	1	2	0	—	17:25
15C. ClutterbuckR	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	6	0	0	—	16:36
53C. CizikasC	0	1	1	+1	2	0.03	3	2	0	40	16:11
12J. BaileyR	0	0	0	0	3	0.20	0	0	0	—	16:01
14T. KuhnhacklR	0	0	0	0	2	0.09	1	0	0	—	15:20
29B. NelsonC	0	0	0	0	2	0.32	0	0	0	67	15:08
7J. EberleR	0	0	0	0	1	0.16	0	0	0	50	14:56
13M. BarzalC	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	0	3	0	33	14:36
27A. LeeL	0	0	0	0	1	0.08	2	0	0	50	14:31
51V. FilppulaC	2	0	2	+2	3	0.44	1	0	0	67	14:00
47L. KomarovR	0	1	1	+2	0	0.00	1	0	0	100	13:31
17M. MartinL	1	0	1	+1	1	0.49	6	1	0	—	13:05
18A. BeauvillierR	0	1	1	+2	1	0.04	2	1	0	—	12:34

New York Islanders goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
40R. Lehner(W)	29	29	0	1.000	2.42	+2.42	60:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

New York Islanders at Washington Capitals

2nd period

3rd period

2nd

3rd

Box score