Islanders at Capitals 2-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

New York Islanders

▸2

Washington Capitals

FinalTV ESPN+, MSG+·Capital One Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Washington Capitals 2-0. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. It was tied 0-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Josh Bailey's goal at 5:08 of the third period, which took the Islanders' chances from 48% to 75%. Expected goals were close — NYI 2.1, WSH 2.0; shots on goal were NYI 25, WSH 19. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Thomas Greiss stopped 19 of 19 (1.000), 2.0 goals saved above expected; Braden Holtby stopped 23 of 25 (.920). Three stars: 1. Thomas Greiss (19 saves, 1.000), 2. Braden Holtby (23 saves, .920), 3. Josh Bailey (1 G).

Three stars

★
T. Greiss19 saves, 1.000
★★
B. Holtby23 saves, .920
★★★
J. Bailey1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	011	09	25	225
WSH	07	08	04	019

Scoring

2 goals

3rd period

J. Bailey(11)
M. Barzal (31), A. Pelech (6)
tip-inxG 0.07win prob +28 pts
1-0
5:08
C. Clutterbuck(4)
C. Cizikas (9), A. Pelech (7)
snapxG 0.14win prob +17 pts
2-0
7:34

Penalties

4 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

0:10Nicklas Backstrom · Hookingdrawn by Casey Cizikas2 min
8:17Casey Cizikas · Trippingdrawn by Tom Wilson2 min

2nd

0:57Adam Pelech · Holdingdrawn by Chandler Stephenson2 min
16:13Nic Dowd · Trippingdrawn by Scott Mayfield2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: WSH

Biggest swing: Josh Bailey, 3rd 5:08 — NYI 48% → 75%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 2.0 xG · 34 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 2.1 xG · 37 att WSH

0 G · 2.0 xG · 34 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.12 G
All situations: 0 G2.0; 1.92 G
Even strength: 0 G1.1; 0.10 G
Power play: 0 G0.8; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 71 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

52%48%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.05 – 1.94

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

25
Shots on goal: 19; 53%
Faceoffs: 47%; 0/2
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 4; 19
Hits: 21; 16
Blocked shots: 15; 6
Giveaways: 12; 8
Takeaways: 10

Box score

every player line

New York Islanders skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
2N. LeddyD	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	3	1	0	—	23:21
55J. BoychukD	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	1	0	0	—	22:45
6R. PulockD	0	0	0	+2	1	0.11	2	3	0	—	19:14
24S. MayfieldD	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	0	1	0	—	18:55
29B. NelsonC	0	0	0	0	1	0.16	0	1	0	62	17:42
25D. ToewsD	0	0	0	0	4	0.19	0	3	0	—	16:40
12J. BaileyR	1	0	1	+1	2	0.27	0	1	0	50	16:32
18A. BeauvillierR	0	0	0	+1	2	0.12	1	0	0	—	16:19
13M. BarzalC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.19	0	1	0	67	16:03
15C. ClutterbuckR	1	0	1	+1	2	0.27	1	0	0	—	15:57
47L. KomarovR	0	0	0	0	0	0.15	3	0	0	50	15:53
3A. PelechD	0	2	2	+2	2	0.03	0	1	2	—	15:48
27A. LeeL	0	0	0	0	3	0.19	0	0	0	—	15:02
51V. FilppulaC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	0	57	14:31
7J. EberleR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	14:29
53C. CizikasC	0	1	1	+1	2	0.21	3	1	2	42	13:24
28M. Dal ColleL	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	0	1	0	—	13:09
17M. MartinL	0	0	0	+1	0	0.07	5	1	0	—	10:16

New York Islanders goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
1T. Greiss(W)	19	19	0	1.000	1.96	+1.96	60:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

New York Islanders at Washington Capitals

3rd period

1st

2nd

Box score