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Predators at Sabres
NHL

Nashville Predators at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
▸3
Buffalo Sabres
2
FinalTV FS-TN, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Buffalo Sabres 3-2. The Predators scored first and never trailed. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ryan Johansen's goal at 6:32 of the third period, which took the Predators' chances from 48% to 77%. Expected goals were close — NSH 2.3, BUF 2.2; shots on goal were NSH 35, BUF 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Pekka Rinne stopped 26 of 28 (.929); Carter Hutton stopped 32 of 35 (.914), 0.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. P.K. Subban (1 G, 1 A), 2. Pekka Rinne (26 saves, .929), 3. Jeff Skinner (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    P. Subban1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    P. Rinne26 saves, .929
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    J. Skinner1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH18117110335
BUFBUF1711209228

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    C. Smith(21)
    P. Subban (21), K. Turris (16)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    8:49
  2. BUF
    K. Okposo(13)
    E. Rodrigues (19), R. Ristolainen (35)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    16:04

2nd period

  1. NSH
    P. Subban(9)
    Unassisted
    slapxG 0.07win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    0:44
  2. BUF
    J. Skinner(38)
    B. Montour (27), E. Rodrigues (20)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +23 pts
    2-2
    19:55

3rd period

  1. NSH
    R. Johansen(13)
    V. Arvidsson (14), R. Josi (41)
    backhandxG 0.09win prob +29 pts
    3-2
    6:32

Penalties

NSH 6 PIM·BUF 2 PIM

1st

  • 11:33BUFBrandon Montour · Trippingdrawn by Viktor Arvidsson2 min

2nd

  • 2:40NSHRyan Johansen · Hookingdrawn by Sam Reinhart2 min
  • 8:22NSHMattias Ekholm · Trippingdrawn by Alex Nylander2 min
  • 8:22NSHMattias Ekholm · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Alex Nylander2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalNSH goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Ryan Johansen, 3rd 6:32 — NSH 48% → 77%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Skinner · Goal · xG 0.19S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.16S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.16S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.14K. Okposo · Goal · xG 0.13C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.10J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.10S. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.09A. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.09J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.08B. Montour · Missed · xG 0.08S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.07V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.06C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.06V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.06V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.04J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.04C. Sheary · Missed · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.04J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.04C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.03J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.03S. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.03V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03C. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.03S. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.03B. Montour · Missed · xG 0.03V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.02J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.02V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.02J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.02E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.02E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.02E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.01C. Nelson · Missed · xG 0.01C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.01J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.01J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.00B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.00S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF2 G · 2.2 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsBUF
2.33 G
All situations
2 G2.2
2.03 G
Even strength
2 G1.6
0.00 G
Power play
0 G0.6
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 92 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH50%50%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.18 – 2.18

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsBUF
35
Shots on goal
28
54%
Faceoffs
46%
0/1
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
2
13
Hits
21
15
Blocked shots
12
9
Giveaways
5
5
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59R. JosiD011-120.08030—25:37
4R. EllisD000-200.00010—23:48
14M. EkholmD000+310.01034—23:36
76P. SubbanD112+260.14120—23:29
33V. ArvidssonL011+130.35000—17:29
92R. JohansenC101+110.090024717:23
13N. BoninoC000-230.040005616:36
9F. ForsbergL000+140.30000—16:29
10C. SissonsC000030.251006716:28
8K. TurrisC011+230.240004614:58
64M. GranlundC000030.1712010014:51
15C. SmithC101+130.22200014:47
51A. WatsonL000-100.14410—14:14
5D. HamhuisD000010.01010—12:22
17W. SimmondsR000000.07010—10:52
19C. JarnkrokC000010.121006710:42
11B. BoyleC000010.09200010:35
57D. FabbroD000000.00110—09:45
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35P. Rinne(W)28262.9292.19+0.1959:59

Season series

NSH leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).