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Sabres at Predators
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
1
Nashville Predators
▸2
FinalTV FS-TN, MSG-B·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Buffalo Sabres 2-1. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Kevin Fiala's goal at 16:34 of the second period, which took the Predators' chances from 53% to 74%. Expected goals were close — BUF 2.7, NSH 2.9; shots on goal were BUF 22, NSH 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Carter Hutton stopped 23 of 25 (.920); Pekka Rinne stopped 21 of 22 (.955), 1.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Ryan Ellis (1 G), 2. Kevin Fiala (1 G), 3. Pekka Rinne (21 saves, .955).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    R. Ellis1 G
  2. ★★
    NSH
    K. Fiala1 G
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    P. Rinne21 saves, .955

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF081608122
NSHNSH1111806225

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    R. Ellis(2)PPG
    R. Josi (14), R. Johansen (19)
    slapxG 0.09win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    16:25

2nd period

  1. BUF
    S. Reinhart(7)
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.31win prob +17 pts
    1-1
    5:20
  2. NSH
    K. Fiala(5)
    C. Smith (7), M. Ekholm (14)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +21 pts
    1-2
    16:34

Penalties

BUF 4 PIM·NSH 8 PIM

1st

  • 11:41NSHMiikka Salomaki · Holdingdrawn by Sam Reinhart2 min
  • 15:04BUFNathan Beaulieu · Trippingdrawn by Ryan Johansen2 min

2nd

  • 1:50NSHDan Hamhuis · Trippingdrawn by Evan Rodrigues2 min
  • 13:26NSHAustin Watson · Hookingdrawn by Jack Eichel2 min
  • 17:27NSHRyan Hartman · Trippingdrawn by Evan Rodrigues2 min
  • 18:19BUFJeff Skinner · Slashingdrawn by Colton Sissons2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalBUF goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Kevin Fiala, 2nd 16:34 — NSH 53% → 74%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.47C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.25A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.23R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.18E. Tolvanen · Missed · xG 0.17C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.14C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.13R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.11R. Grimaldi · On goal · xG 0.11R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.10R. Grimaldi · Missed · xG 0.10C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.09R. Ellis · Goal · xG 0.09C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.08E. Tolvanen · Missed · xG 0.07R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.07C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.06A. Watson · Missed · xG 0.06R. Johansen · Missed · xG 0.04K. Fiala · Goal · xG 0.03M. Irwin · On goal · xG 0.03M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02M. Salomaki · On goal · xG 0.02Y. Weber · On goal · xG 0.02A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.02R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.02K. Fiala · Missed · xG 0.02C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01M. Irwin · Missed · xG 0.01R. Grimaldi · On goal · xG 0.01C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.01R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.01D. Hamhuis · Missed · xG 0.01M. Irwin · On goal · xG 0.00Y. Weber · On goal · xG 0.00R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.00C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH2 G · 2.9 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsNSH
2.71 G
All situations
2 G2.9
1.91 G
Even strength
1 G1.6
0.70 G
Power play
1 G0.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF54%46%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.58 – 2.37

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsNSH
22
Shots on goal
25
48%
Faceoffs
52%
0/4
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
8
17
Hits
24
16
Blocked shots
15
16
Giveaways
7
6
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55R. RistolainenD000+120.05250—26:53
26R. DahlinD000-120.06140—22:51
53J. SkinnerL000+110.34002—22:13
9J. EichelC000+160.680104421:59
23S. ReinhartC101+130.57000021:31
24L. PilutD000+100.01130—19:08
21K. OkposoR000000.001007516:53
82N. BeaulieuD000000.00102—16:40
4Z. BogosianD000010.02310—14:56
72T. ThompsonC000020.17000014:34
37C. MittelstadtC000000.001002514:16
71E. RodriguesC000020.321006013:54
10P. BerglundC000-110.311007113:47
22J. LarssonL000-100.002005313:31
8C. NelsonD000-100.00010—12:48
17V. SobotkaC000010.040003311:51
28Z. GirgensonsC000-100.07200011:17
81R. ElieL000010.01110—09:13
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40C. Hutton(L)25232.9202.39+0.3958:24

Season series

NSH leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).