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Islanders at Flyers
NHL

New York Islanders at Philadelphia Flyers

NHL scoreboard
New York Islanders
▸4
Philadelphia Flyers
2
FinalTV NHLN, MSG+·Wells Fargo Center

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Philadelphia Flyers 4-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Islanders led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Josh Bailey's goal at 16:03 of the third period, which took the Islanders' chances from 48% to 90%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 3.9 to 1.9; shots on goal were NYI 40, PHI 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 74% of the time. Robin Lehner stopped 22 of 24 (.917); Carter Hart stopped 36 of 40 (.900), 0.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Josh Bailey (2 G), 2. Brock Nelson (1 G, 1 A), 3. Sean Couturier (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    J. Bailey2 G
  2. ★★
    NYI
    B. Nelson1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    PHI
    S. Couturier1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYINYI114115211440
PHIPHI1100519224

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. PHI
    R. Hagg(5)
    R. Gudas (16), R. Hartman (13)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    6:39
  2. NYI
    B. Nelson(23)
    S. Mayfield (15), D. Toews (11)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    14:27

2nd period

  1. NYI
    N. Leddy(4)
    M. Barzal (42), J. Boychuk (15)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +19 pts
    2-1
    10:58

3rd period

  1. PHI
    S. Gostisbehere(8)PPG
    C. Giroux (60), S. Couturier (42)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +22 pts
    2-2
    6:16
  2. NYI
    J. Bailey(15)
    B. Nelson (26), A. Ladd (8)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +42 pts
    3-2
    16:03
  3. NYI
    J. Bailey(16)
    L. Komarov (17), A. Pelech (13)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +7 pts
    4-2
    17:26

Penalties

NYI 6 PIM·PHI 10 PIM

1st

  • 0:26PHIRadko Gudas · Hookingdrawn by Casey Cizikas2 min
  • 1:45PHIRobert Hagg · High sticking double minordrawn by Anders Lee4 min
  • 2:38NYIserved by M. Martin · Too many men on the ice2 min

3rd

  • 2:16PHIRyan Hartman · Interferencedrawn by Scott Mayfield2 min
  • 2:16PHIJakub Voracek · Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  • 6:12NYIScott Mayfield · Hookingdrawn by Sean Couturier2 min
  • 9:08NYIAdam Pelech · Trippingdrawn by Scott Laughton2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PHI goalNYI goalFinal: PHI 0%

Biggest swing: Josh Bailey, 3rd 16:03 — NYI 48% → 90%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
O. Lindblom · Missed · xG 0.50J. Voracek · On goal · xG 0.13R. Hartman · Missed · xG 0.10J. Voracek · On goal · xG 0.10R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.09J. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.08C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.08J. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.08J. Voracek · On goal · xG 0.08J. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.07S. Gostisbehere · Goal · xG 0.06R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.06J. Voracek · On goal · xG 0.06O. Lindblom · Missed · xG 0.05O. Lindblom · On goal · xG 0.03P. Myers · Missed · xG 0.03R. Gudas · Missed · xG 0.03J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.03P. Myers · Missed · xG 0.02R. Hagg · Goal · xG 0.02S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.02S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.02N. Patrick · On goal · xG 0.02P. Myers · On goal · xG 0.02T. Konecny · On goal · xG 0.02C. Giroux · Missed · xG 0.02R. Gudas · On goal · xG 0.01T. Sanheim · On goal · xG 0.01P. Myers · On goal · xG 0.01N. Patrick · On goal · xG 0.01S. Laughton · Missed · xG 0.01I. Provorov · On goal · xG 0.01T. Sanheim · Missed · xG 0.01S. Gostisbehere · Missed · xG 0.01R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.01R. Gudas · On goal · xG 0.00C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.00
PHI2 G · 1.9 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsPHI
3.94 G
All situations
2 G1.9
2.64 G
Even strength
1 G1.7
0.70 G
Power play
1 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 98 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI74%26%PHI

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.22 – 1.83

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsPHI
40
Shots on goal
24
36%
Faceoffs
64%
0/5
Power play
1/2
6
Penalty minutes
10
34
Hits
16
17
Blocked shots
17
5
Giveaways
15
4
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
6R. PulockD000+120.23500—21:13
24S. MayfieldD011+140.15122—19:51
25D. ToewsD011+150.30000—19:14
29B. NelsonC112+321.031203118:51
2N. LeddyD101+120.27020—18:50
12J. BaileyR202+320.45000—18:32
3A. PelechD011+120.07002—18:29
55J. BoychukD011+150.31040—17:32
53C. CizikasC000-130.212005016:51
27A. LeeL000+100.10310—16:42
7J. EberleR000+140.2320010015:59
15C. ClutterbuckR000-120.09510—15:24
13M. BarzalC011+100.001101315:20
47L. KomarovR011+120.13320—14:33
16A. LaddL011+210.16100—13:54
17M. MartinL000-130.13220—12:44
18A. BeauvillierR000010.07400—12:34
11T. FritzC000000.004003809:23
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40R. Lehner(W)24222.9171.88-0.1260:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).