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Lightning at Hurricanes
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸6
Carolina Hurricanes
3
FinalTV ESPN+, FS-CR·PNC Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Carolina Hurricanes 6-3. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Hurricanes led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ryan Callahan's goal at 10:09 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 48% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.1 to 2.6; shots on goal were TBL 32, CAR 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Louis Domingue stopped 25 of 28 (.893); Curtis McElhinney stopped 26 of 31 (.839), 2.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Victor Hedman (3 A), 2. Jordan Staal (1 G, 1 A), 3. Steven Stamkos (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    V. Hedman3 A
  2. ★★
    CAR
    J. Staal1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    S. Stamkos1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL27010415632
CARCAR2131609328

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    S. Stamkos(38)PPG
    V. Hedman (39), B. Point (50)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +9 pts
    1-0
    3:20
  2. CAR
    N. Niederreiter(21)
    S. Aho (49)
    snapxG 0.03win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    9:51
  3. CAR
    D. Hamilton(14)
    A. Svechnikov (16), J. Staal (12)
    snapxG 0.21win prob +13 pts
    1-2
    11:32
  4. TBL
    T. Johnson(27)
    R. McDonagh (31), N. Kucherov (83)
    backhandxG 0.04win prob +15 pts
    2-2
    19:34

2nd period

  1. CAR
    J. Staal(8)
    T. Teravainen (49), B. Pesce (19)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +16 pts
    2-3
    6:34

3rd period

  1. TBL
    A. Cirelli(17)
    S. Stamkos (49), V. Hedman (40)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +21 pts
    3-3
    3:35
  2. TBL
    R. Callahan(7)
    V. Hedman (41), J. Miller (28)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +33 pts
    4-3
    10:09
  3. TBL
    B. Point(39)PPG
    S. Stamkos (50), J. Miller (29)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +6 pts
    5-3
    16:36
  4. TBL
    R. McDonagh(9)EN
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.40
    6-3
    18:55

Penalties

TBL 16 PIM·CAR 14 PIM

1st

  • 2:43CARNino Niederreiter · Interferencedrawn by Tyler Johnson2 min
  • 5:42TBLCedric Paquette · Trippingdrawn by Brett Pesce2 min
  • 14:09TBLYanni Gourde · Match penatly 10 minutesdrawn by Jordan Staal10 min
  • 14:09CARTrevor van Riemsdyk · Roughingdrawn by Yanni Gourde2 min

2nd

  • 1:54CARLucas Wallmark · Trippingdrawn by Steven Stamkos2 min
  • 5:11TBLJan Rutta · Holdingdrawn by Warren Foegele2 min
  • 6:12CARDougie Hamilton · Elbowingdrawn by Cedric Paquette2 min

3rd

  • 2:55TBLErik Cernak · Trippingdrawn by Warren Foegele2 min
  • 2:55CARWarren Foegele · Embellishmentdrawn by Erik Cernak2 min
  • 10:24CARAndrei Svechnikov · High stickingdrawn by Jan Rutta2 min
  • 15:21CARMicheal Ferland · Trippingdrawn by Ondrej Palat2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalTBL goalFinal: CAR 0%

Biggest swing: Ryan Callahan, 3rd 10:09 — TBL 48% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Staal · Goal · xG 0.22D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.21D. Hamilton · Goal · xG 0.21J. Faulk · Missed · xG 0.18M. Ferland · On goal · xG 0.17J. Williams · Missed · xG 0.17N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.14M. Ferland · On goal · xG 0.14T. Teravainen · On goal · xG 0.13J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.12J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.12S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.10N. Niederreiter · Missed · xG 0.09N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.06D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.06A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.06N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.05S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.04N. Niederreiter · Goal · xG 0.03W. Foegele · Missed · xG 0.03J. Williams · On goal · xG 0.03T. Teravainen · Missed · xG 0.03J. Staal · Missed · xG 0.03C. de Haan · On goal · xG 0.02J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.02M. Ferland · On goal · xG 0.02T. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.02J. Slavin · Missed · xG 0.02S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.01J. Slavin · Missed · xG 0.01T. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.01B. Pesce · Missed · xG 0.01J. Williams · On goal · xG 0.01T. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.01B. McGinn · On goal · xG 0.01A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.01T. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.01J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.01D. Hamilton · Missed · xG 0.01J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.00D. Hamilton · Missed · xG 0.00
CAR3 G · 2.6 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsCAR
3.15 G
All situations
3 G2.6
1.73 G
Even strength
3 G2.2
1.02 G
Power play
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL50%50%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.66 – 2.63

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsCAR
32
Shots on goal
28
67%
Faceoffs
33%
2/5
Power play
0/3
16
Penalty minutes
14
32
Hits
31
14
Blocked shots
17
13
Giveaways
6
9
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD033+120.16300—26:21
86N. KucherovR011+250.35100—23:54
27R. McDonaghD112+140.46130—22:47
81E. CernakD000+100.00312—21:31
21B. PointC112+230.310006319:54
91S. StamkosC123+130.552106318:44
10J. MillerC022+110.151209017:14
98M. SergachevD000-110.00210—17:04
71A. CirelliC101+120.341006714:54
55B. CoburnD000-100.01210—14:05
24R. CallahanR101050.31700—13:55
17A. KillornL000-100.00000—13:21
13C. PaquetteC000020.222126213:18
18O. PalatL000-110.02320—13:01
9T. JohnsonC101010.160005012:53
44J. RuttaD000+110.01112—11:49
7M. JosephR000-100.0230010010:21
37Y. GourdeC000-110.010110004:01
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
70L. Domingue(W)28253.8932.64-0.3659:53

Season series

TBL leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).