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Hurricanes at Lightning
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
2
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸4
FinalTV FS-CR, SUN·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Carolina Hurricanes 4-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Yanni Gourde's goal at 7:02 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 55% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.2 to 2.5; shots on goal were CAR 40, TBL 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Petr Mrazek stopped 23 of 26 (.885), 0.7 goals below expected; Louis Domingue stopped 38 of 40 (.950). Three stars: 1. Tyler Johnson (3 G), 2. Yanni Gourde (1 G), 3. Louis Domingue (38 saves, .950).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    T. Johnson3 G
  2. ★★
    TBL
    Y. Gourde1 G
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    L. Domingue38 saves, .950

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CARCAR112114014240
TBLTBL1811326427

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. CAR
    M. Ferland(4)
    T. Teravainen (6), S. Aho (8)
    backhandxG 0.15win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    10:25
  2. TBL
    T. Johnson(1)SHG
    M. Joseph (1), D. Girardi (1)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    12:42

2nd period

  1. TBL
    T. Johnson(2)
    A. Erne (1), J. Miller (3)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +17 pts
    1-2
    6:07
  2. CAR
    M. Necas(1)
    W. Foegele (2), V. Zykov (1)
    slapxG 0.08win prob +19 pts
    2-2
    12:48

3rd period

  1. TBL
    Y. Gourde(2)PPG
    O. Palat (2)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +25 pts
    2-3
    7:02
  2. TBL
    T. Johnson(3)EN
    N. Kucherov (2), D. Girardi (2)
    wristxG 0.94win prob +4 pts
    2-4
    18:04

Penalties

CAR 2 PIM·TBL 8 PIM

1st

  • 10:55TBLAdam Erne · Trippingdrawn by Martin Necas2 min
  • 15:37TBLBrayden Point · Holdingdrawn by Andrei Svechnikov2 min

2nd

  • 0:26TBLTyler Johnson · Trippingdrawn by Justin Williams2 min
  • 8:38TBLAlex Killorn · Hookingdrawn by Valentin Zykov2 min

3rd

  • 5:55CARMartin Necas · Holdingdrawn by Cedric Paquette2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalCAR goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Yanni Gourde, 3rd 7:02 — TBL 55% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Johnson · Goal · xG 0.94T. Johnson · Goal · xG 0.19A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.16A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.14T. Johnson · Goal · xG 0.13Y. Gourde · Goal · xG 0.13J. Miller · Missed · xG 0.12B. Point · On goal · xG 0.12C. Paquette · On goal · xG 0.11A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.11C. Paquette · Missed · xG 0.09Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.08C. Paquette · Missed · xG 0.08M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.08N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.06N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.06C. Paquette · Missed · xG 0.06B. Point · On goal · xG 0.05A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.05T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.05C. Paquette · On goal · xG 0.05A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.03A. Stralman · Missed · xG 0.03A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.03V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.03B. Point · On goal · xG 0.03T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.03R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.03S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.02A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.02B. Coburn · On goal · xG 0.02B. Coburn · On goal · xG 0.02D. Girardi · Missed · xG 0.02V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.01N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.01T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.01A. Stralman · On goal · xG 0.01
TBL4 G · 3.2 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsTBL
2.52 G
All situations
3 G3.2
1.42 G
Even strength
1 G1.8
1.10 G
Power play
1 G0.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR54%46%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.45 – 2.24

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsTBL
40
Shots on goal
27
51%
Faceoffs
49%
0/4
Power play
1/1
2
Penalty minutes
8
16
Hits
16
13
Blocked shots
20
11
Giveaways
9
3
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
74J. SlavinD000-110.05210—22:25
19D. HamiltonD000070.17310—22:06
86T. TeravainenC011+140.20010020:26
27J. FaulkD000-120.06120—20:19
20S. AhoC011+140.290004720:12
79M. FerlandL101050.430006719:18
22B. PesceD000010.05050—18:39
14J. WilliamsR000-220.1220010018:23
11J. StaalC000-110.110005917:11
44C. de HaanD000020.09400—16:45
37A. SvechnikovR000-310.05100—16:43
57T. van RiemsdykD000000.00000—15:42
13W. FoegeleL011020.2011010015:09
48J. MartinookL000-120.14110—14:42
71L. WallmarkC000-130.190004314:30
73V. ZykovL011+110.15100—11:38
23B. McGinnL000010.08010—10:29
88M. NecasC101+110.080024406:43
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
34P. Mrazek(L)26233.8852.26-0.7457:33

Season series

TBL leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).