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Oilers at Senators
NHL

Edmonton Oilers at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Edmonton Oilers
▸4
Ottawa Senators
2
FinalTV SNW, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Ottawa Senators 4-2. The Senators scored first; the Oilers answered. The Oilers led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Sam Gagner's goal at 17:21 of the second period, which took the Oilers' chances from 47% to 70%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 3.3 to 2.8; shots on goal were EDM 26, OTT 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Mikko Koskinen stopped 35 of 37 (.946), 0.8 goals saved above expected; Craig Anderson stopped 22 of 25 (.880), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Connor McDavid (1 G), 2. Josh Currie (2 A), 3. Mark Borowiecki (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    EDM
    C. McDavid1 G
  2. ★★
    EDM
    J. Currie2 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    M. Borowiecki1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
EDMEDM092928426
OTTOTT11309115237

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    C. Tierney(7)
    B. Tkachuk (18), D. Batherson (6)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +14 pts
    0-1
    13:59

2nd period

  1. EDM
    C. McDavid(33)
    J. Currie (1)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +17 pts
    1-1
    6:47
  2. EDM
    S. Gagner(4)
    T. Rattie (7), M. Benning (9)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +22 pts
    2-1
    17:21

3rd period

  1. EDM
    C. Cave(2)
    J. Currie (2)
    backhandxG 0.12win prob +18 pts
    3-1
    1:46
  2. OTT
    M. Borowiecki(1)
    C. Jaros (8), C. White (20)
    backhandxG 0.11win prob +16 pts
    3-2
    7:15
  3. EDM
    Z. Kassian(9)EN
    D. Nurse (25), L. Draisaitl (39)
    wristxG 0.86win prob +5 pts
    4-2
    18:53

Penalties

EDM 2 PIM·OTT 16 PIM

2nd

  • 10:02OTTChristian Jaros · Trippingdrawn by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins2 min
  • 18:49OTTMagnus Paajarvi · Holdingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min

3rd

  • 14:51EDMAlex Chiasson · Hookingdrawn by Colin White2 min
  • 15:31OTTColin White · Trippingdrawn by Oscar Klefbom2 min
  • 18:53OTTChris Tierney · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalEDM goalFinal: OTT 0%

Biggest swing: Sam Gagner, 2nd 17:21 — EDM 47% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.44C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.24C. Tierney · Missed · xG 0.16C. Tierney · Goal · xG 0.15C. White · On goal · xG 0.13C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.12C. White · On goal · xG 0.12M. Borowiecki · Goal · xG 0.11O. Lindberg · On goal · xG 0.10Z. Smith · Missed · xG 0.09Z. Smith · Missed · xG 0.08C. White · On goal · xG 0.08J. Pageau · Missed · xG 0.07B. Ryan · Missed · xG 0.06M. Borowiecki · On goal · xG 0.05B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.05B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.05A. Duclair · Missed · xG 0.05M. Paajarvi · Missed · xG 0.05T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.05C. White · On goal · xG 0.04C. Jaros · Missed · xG 0.04A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.03B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.03B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.02C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Smith · On goal · xG 0.02C. Jaros · On goal · xG 0.02B. Harpur · Missed · xG 0.02M. Boedker · On goal · xG 0.02D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.02B. Harpur · On goal · xG 0.02M. Borowiecki · Missed · xG 0.02J. Pageau · Missed · xG 0.01A. Duclair · Missed · xG 0.01M. Paajarvi · Missed · xG 0.01B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.01A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.01T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.01D. DeMelo · Missed · xG 0.01M. Boedker · Missed · xG 0.01B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.01M. Borowiecki · Missed · xG 0.01C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.01C. Jaros · On goal · xG 0.01B. Harpur · On goal · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01C. Jaros · On goal · xG 0.01O. Lindberg · On goal · xG 0.01B. Ryan · Missed · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01M. Paajarvi · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Smith · On goal · xG 0.01C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.01M. Borowiecki · Missed · xG 0.00C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.00D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT2 G · 2.8 xG · 58 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

EDMvsOTT
3.33 G
All situations
2 G2.8
1.93 G
Even strength
2 G2.0
0.50 G
Power play
0 G0.0
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
EDM46%54%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.40 – 2.65

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

EDMvsOTT
26
Shots on goal
37
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/3
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
16
25
Hits
21
19
Blocked shots
16
15
Giveaways
17
4
Takeaways
13

Box score

every player line
Edmonton Oilers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
25D. NurseD011010.02120—24:50
97C. McDavidC101+160.780102724:49
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC000010.181506022:03
77O. KlefbomD000020.03140—21:18
29L. DraisaitlC011020.281002721:17
6A. LarssonD000-100.00310—20:14
4K. RussellD000010.04230—19:43
44Z. KassianR101030.98200—18:15
39A. ChiassonR000010.22202—17:36
2A. SekeraD000+200.02300—15:50
83M. BenningD011+320.03000—14:38
12C. CaveC101020.350107514:14
22T. RiederL000000.00210—13:50
27M. LucicL000+200.07300—13:22
43J. CurrieR022+110.10210—11:49
89S. GagnerC101+110.152001708:52
8T. RattieR011+120.02000—08:01
24B. MaloneC000010.01000007:19
Edmonton Oilers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
19M. Koskinen(W)37352.9462.76+0.7660:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).