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Senators at Blues
NHL

Ottawa Senators at St. Louis Blues

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
2
St. Louis Blues
▸3
FinalTV FS-MW, CITY·Enterprise Center

Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Ottawa Senators 3-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Blues led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Carl Gunnarsson's goal at 12:16 of the third period, which took the Blues' chances from 52% to 86%. Expected goals favored the Blues, 3.6 to 2.2; shots on goal were OTT 30, STL 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blues win a replay of these chances 71% of the time. Craig Anderson stopped 35 of 38 (.921), 0.6 goals saved above expected; Jordan Binnington stopped 28 of 30 (.933). Three stars: 1. Carl Gunnarsson (1 G), 2. Ryan O'Reilly (2 A), 3. Vladimir Tarasenko (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    STL
    C. Gunnarsson1 G
  2. ★★
    STL
    R. O'Reilly2 A
  3. ★★★
    STL
    V. Tarasenko1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT16014110230
STLSTL111115112338

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    N. Paul(1)
    M. Boedker (22), C. Tierney (26)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +11 pts
    1-0
    4:34
  2. STL
    V. Tarasenko(16)
    R. O'Reilly (30)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    7:50

2nd period

  1. STL
    V. Dunn(5)
    R. Bortuzzo (6), B. Schenn (17)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +22 pts
    1-2
    17:28

3rd period

  1. OTT
    M. Paajarvi(5)SHG
    Z. Smith (14), D. DeMelo (10)
    deflectedxG 0.12win prob +24 pts
    2-2
    1:00
  2. STL
    C. Gunnarsson(2)
    R. O'Reilly (31), P. Maroon (9)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +34 pts
    2-3
    12:16

Penalties

OTT 2 PIM·STL 2 PIM

1st

  • 2:20STLMackenzie MacEachern · Holdingdrawn by Matt Duchene2 min

2nd

  • 19:53OTTChristian Jaros · Trippingdrawn by Jaden Schwartz2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
STL goalOTT goalFinal: STL 100%

Biggest swing: Carl Gunnarsson, 3rd 12:16 — STL 52% → 86%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.39B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.30B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.28M. MacEachern · On goal · xG 0.20C. Gunnarsson · Goal · xG 0.19B. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.17R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.16B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.16I. Barbashev · On goal · xG 0.16M. MacEachern · On goal · xG 0.11M. MacEachern · On goal · xG 0.10V. Tarasenko · Goal · xG 0.10J. Schwartz · On goal · xG 0.09V. Dunn · On goal · xG 0.08V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.08R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.08C. Gunnarsson · On goal · xG 0.08R. Bortuzzo · On goal · xG 0.08J. Schwartz · On goal · xG 0.07J. Schwartz · On goal · xG 0.07I. Barbashev · Missed · xG 0.06B. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.06O. Sundqvist · On goal · xG 0.06I. Barbashev · Missed · xG 0.05V. Dunn · Missed · xG 0.05R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.04A. Steen · On goal · xG 0.04R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.03R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.03V. Dunn · Goal · xG 0.03P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.03C. Gunnarsson · On goal · xG 0.02R. Bortuzzo · On goal · xG 0.02J. Nolan · On goal · xG 0.02A. Steen · On goal · xG 0.02J. Nolan · On goal · xG 0.02R. Bortuzzo · On goal · xG 0.02R. Bortuzzo · On goal · xG 0.01J. Nolan · On goal · xG 0.01V. Dunn · On goal · xG 0.01R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.01J. Nolan · On goal · xG 0.01C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.01J. Bouwmeester · On goal · xG 0.01
STL3 G · 3.6 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsSTL
2.22 G
All situations
3 G3.6
1.61 G
Even strength
3 G3.6
0.50 G
Power play
0 G0.0
0.11 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT29%71%STL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.15 – 3.40

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsSTL
30
Shots on goal
38
46%
Faceoffs
54%
0/1
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
2
15
Hits
25
16
Blocked shots
11
3
Giveaways
5
10
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD000+110.03010—26:17
5C. CeciD000030.09020—22:03
2D. DeMeloD011+120.11110—21:40
61M. StoneR000-100.00010—19:18
86C. WolaninD000-120.03020—19:02
95M. DucheneC000-130.441204418:48
18R. DzingelC000-220.10000017:36
71C. TierneyC011020.031105617:35
9B. RyanR000-230.52010—17:19
7B. TkachukL000-150.25310—15:46
67B. HarpurD000-220.03210—15:23
89M. BoedkerL011+110.02000—15:07
83C. JarosD000-100.01032—14:09
44J. PageauC000010.091003813:55
15Z. SmithC011010.031004313:38
56M. PaajarviL101+110.12000—11:50
13N. PaulL101+110.1840010011:15
38R. BalcersL000000.08100—08:47
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41C. Anderson(L)38353.9213.61+0.6158:32

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).