Ducks at Wild 3-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Anaheim Ducks

▸3

Minnesota Wild

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Recap

written from the game data

The Anaheim Ducks beat the Minnesota Wild 3-0. The Ducks scored first and never trailed. The Ducks led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Rickard Rakell's goal at 4:08 of the first period, which took the Ducks' chances from 58% to 73%. Expected goals favored the Wild, 2.5 to 1.6; shots on goal were ANA 23, MIN 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Wild win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. John Gibson stopped 37 of 37 (1.000), 2.5 goals saved above expected; Devan Dubnyk stopped 15 of 15 (1.000), 1.2 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. John Gibson (37 saves, 1.000), 2. Adam Henrique (1 G), 3. Zach Parise.

Three stars

★
J. Gibson37 saves, 1.000
★★
A. Henrique1 G
★★★
Z. Parise

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ANA	313	02	08	323
MIN	010	012	015	037

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

A. Henrique(9)
N. Ritchie (14), B. Montour (18)
wristxG 0.03win prob +12 pts
1-0
3:57
R. Rakell(8)
D. Shore (13), B. Montour (19)
wristxG 0.12win prob +15 pts
2-0
4:08
B. Gibbons(2)
A. Welinski (2)
wristxG 0.01win prob +11 pts
3-0
7:58

Penalties

8 PIM·

8 PIM

1st

5:00served by D. Sprong · Too many men on the ice2 min
5:26Ryan Suter · Slashingdrawn by Josh Manson2 min
10:54Nick Seeler · Slashingdrawn by Daniel Sprong2 min
13:43Josh Manson · Cross checkingdrawn by Zach Parise2 min

2nd

18:34Cam Fowler · High stickingdrawn by Luke Kunin2 min

3rd

3:12Mikko Koivu · Trippingdrawn by Carter Rowney2 min
5:37Jonas Brodin · High stickingdrawn by Max Jones2 min
9:31Brandon Montour · Hookingdrawn by Charlie Coyle2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: MIN

Biggest swing: Rickard Rakell, 1st 4:08 — ANA 58% → 73%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 2.5 xG · 50 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 1.6 xG · 34 att MIN

0 G · 2.5 xG · 50 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.63 G
All situations: 0 G2.5; 1.03 G
Even strength: 0 G1.5; 0.60 G
Power play: 0 G1.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

34%66%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.59 – 2.42

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

23
Shots on goal: 37; 58%
Faceoffs: 42%; 0/4
Power play: 0/4; 8
Penalty minutes: 8; 18
Hits: 20; 17
Blocked shots: 11; 3
Giveaways: 4; 3
Takeaways: 8

Box score

every player line

Anaheim Ducks skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
4C. FowlerD	0	0	0	0	2	0.07	2	1	2	—	23:40
47H. LindholmD	0	0	0	+2	3	0.08	1	3	0	—	23:33
42J. MansonD	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	3	2	2	—	21:57
26B. MontourD	0	2	2	+2	2	0.08	2	3	2	—	21:18
15R. GetzlafC	0	0	0	+1	2	0.04	1	1	0	39	19:48
14A. HenriqueC	1	0	1	+1	4	0.27	0	0	0	88	18:05
67R. RakellR	1	0	1	+1	2	0.29	1	0	0	—	17:16
38D. GrantC	0	0	0	0	1	0.23	0	1	0	56	16:21
29D. ShoreC	0	1	1	+1	0	0.07	2	2	0	0	16:01
61T. TerryR	0	0	0	0	0	0.13	0	0	0	—	15:34
37N. RitchieL	0	1	1	+1	2	0.08	1	0	0	—	15:30
32J. LarssonD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.02	2	2	0	—	13:28
11D. SprongR	0	0	0	+1	1	0.04	1	0	0	—	12:53
49M. JonesL	0	0	0	0	1	0.07	0	0	0	—	12:22
24C. RowneyC	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	0	0	80	11:55
45A. WelinskiD	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	1	1	0	—	11:08
23B. GibbonsC	1	0	1	+1	1	0.01	1	1	0	0	10:38
25O. KaseR	0	0	0	+1	1	0.09	0	0	0	67	10:34

Anaheim Ducks goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
36J. Gibson(W)	37	37	0	1.000	2.54	+2.54	60:00

Season series

ANA leads 2-1

Nov 95@1Final
Jan 173@0this game
Feb 194@0Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Anaheim Ducks at Minnesota Wild

1st period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score