Blue Jackets at Lightning 0-4 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Columbus Blue Jackets

Tampa Bay Lightning

▸4

FinalTV FS-O, SUN·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Columbus Blue Jackets 4-0. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brayden Point's goal at 16:39 of the first period, which took the Lightning's chances from 68% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 2.2 to 1.7; shots on goal were CBJ 31, TBL 22. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 15 of 19 (.789), 2.0 goals below expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 31 of 31 (1.000), 1.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Brayden Point (2 G, 1 A), 2. Andrei Vasilevskiy (31 saves, 1.000), 3. Mikhail Sergachev (2 A).

Three stars

★
B. Point2 G, 1 A
★★
A. Vasilevskiy31 saves, 1.000
★★★
M. Sergachev2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CBJ	07	017	07	031
TBL	212	03	27	422

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

M. Joseph(11)
M. Sergachev (14)
wristxG 0.14win prob +14 pts
0-1
15:55
B. Point(25)
N. Kucherov (50), T. Johnson (14)
deflectedxG 0.07win prob +15 pts
0-2
16:39

3rd period

N. Kucherov(21)
T. Johnson (15), B. Point (31)
wristxG 0.10win prob +5 pts
0-3
6:05
B. Point(26)
M. Sergachev (15)
backhandxG 0.09win prob +1 pts
0-4
8:53

Penalties

2 PIM·

2 PIM

2nd

2:27Anthony Duclair · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Andrei Vasilevskiy2 min
15:29Tyler Johnson · Hookingdrawn by Markus Nutivaara2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: TBL

100%

Biggest swing: Brayden Point, 1st 16:39 — TBL 68% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

4 G · 2.2 xG · 33 att

←

attacks

attacks →

0 G · 1.7 xG · 41 att TBL

4 G · 2.2 xG · 33 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.70 G
All situations: 4 G2.2; 1.60 G
Even strength: 4 G1.9; 0.10 G
Power play: 0 G0.2; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 74 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

40%60%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.66 – 2.16

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

31
Shots on goal: 22; 42%
Faceoffs: 58%; 0/1
Power play: 0/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 2; 24
Hits: 23; 8
Blocked shots: 22; 4
Giveaways: 11; 4
Takeaways: 7

Box score

every player line

Columbus Blue Jackets skaters
Skater	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
8Z. WerenskiD	-3	2	0.07	0	1	0	—	24:00
3S. JonesD	-3	2	0.15	0	0	0	—	23:54
9A. PanarinL	-3	4	0.40	0	0	0	—	21:47
27R. MurrayD	0	1	0.04	1	1	0	—	20:56
13C. AtkinsonR	-3	4	0.27	0	0	0	—	19:45
18P. DuboisC	-3	1	0.02	8	0	0	31	19:29
10A. WennbergC	0	1	0.02	1	1	0	50	19:25
65M. NutivaaraD	0	3	0.04	0	0	0	—	18:20
77J. AndersonR	-1	1	0.04	5	2	0	—	17:49
91A. DuclairL	0	2	0.06	0	1	2	—	16:54
38B. JennerC	-1	3	0.10	3	0	0	50	16:51
28O. BjorkstrandR	0	2	0.15	0	1	0	—	16:24
14D. KukanD	-1	0	0.00	3	0	0	—	15:46
58D. SavardD	-1	1	0.05	0	1	0	—	14:57
50E. RobinsonL	-1	2	0.19	0	0	0	—	12:12
20R. NashC	0	1	0.04	1	0	0	0	08:28
37M. HannikainenL	0	1	0.03	2	0	0	—	06:22
17B. DubinskyC	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	43	04:41

Columbus Blue Jackets goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
72S. Bobrovsky(L)	19	15	4	.789	1.95	-2.05	48:53
70J. Korpisalo	3	3	0	1.000	0.23	+0.23	11:07

Season series

TBL leads 3-0

Oct 132@8Final
Jan 80@4this game
Feb 185@1Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Columbus Blue Jackets at Tampa Bay Lightning

1st period

3rd period

2nd

Box score