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Senators at Islanders
NHL

Ottawa Senators at New York Islanders

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Ottawa Senators
3
New York Islanders
▸6
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Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Ottawa Senators 6-3. The Islanders came back from two goals down. The Senators led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mathew Barzal's goal at 4:51 of the third period, which took the Islanders' chances from 52% to 79%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 2.5 to 2.1; shots on goal were OTT 27, NYI 39. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Mike McKenna stopped 33 of 38 (.868), 3.0 goals below expected; Robin Lehner stopped 10 of 10 (1.000), 0.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Mathew Barzal (2 G, 1 A), 2. Josh Bailey (1 G, 1 A), 3. Casey Cizikas (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    M. Barzal2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NYI
    J. Bailey1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    C. Cizikas1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT11021106327
NYINYI010215414639

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    M. Stone(17)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.16win prob +15 pts
    1-0
    16:18

2nd period

  1. OTT
    M. Duchene(15)PPG
    B. Ryan (14), T. Chabot (28)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +13 pts
    2-0
    2:47
  2. NYI
    J. Bailey(8)
    M. Barzal (25)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    3:11
  3. OTT
    C. Ceci(5)
    C. Tierney (19), M. Boedker (17)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    6:11
  4. NYI
    A. Lee(14)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.09win prob +17 pts
    3-2
    17:28

3rd period

  1. NYI
    J. Boychuk(2)
    C. Cizikas (5), M. Martin (3)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +25 pts
    3-3
    2:57
  2. NYI
    M. Barzal(6)
    L. Komarov (9), A. Beauvillier (3)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +26 pts
    3-4
    4:51
  3. NYI
    M. Barzal(7)
    J. Bailey (22)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +12 pts
    3-5
    12:24
  4. NYI
    C. Cizikas(10)EN
    T. Kuhnhackl (3)
    slapxG 0.50
    3-6
    19:06

Penalties

OTT 21 PIM·NYI 21 PIM

1st

  • 8:36OTTMaxime Lajoie · Trippingdrawn by Joshua Ho-Sang2 min

2nd

  • 2:15NYICasey Cizikas · Interferencedrawn by Christian Jaros2 min

3rd

  • 19:30NYIMatt Martin · Fightingdrawn by Mark Borowiecki5 min
  • 19:30OTTMark Borowiecki · Fightingdrawn by Matt Martin5 min
  • 19:50NYIRoss Johnston · Fightingdrawn by Christian Jaros5 min
  • 19:50NYIRoss Johnston · Roughingdrawn by Christian Jaros2 min
  • 19:50OTTChristian Jaros · Fightingdrawn by Ross Johnston5 min
  • 20:00OTTBen Harpur · Fightingdrawn by Scott Mayfield5 min
  • 20:00NYIScott Mayfield · Fightingdrawn by Ben Harpur5 min
  • 20:00NYICasey Cizikas · Roughingdrawn by Zack Smith2 min
  • 20:00OTTZack Smith · Roughingdrawn by Casey Cizikas2 min
  • 20:00OTTZack Smith · Roughingdrawn by Casey Cizikas2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYI goalOTT goalFinal: NYI 100%

Biggest swing: Mathew Barzal, 3rd 4:51 — NYI 52% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Cizikas · Goal · xG 0.50A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.18J. Bailey · Goal · xG 0.13M. Barzal · Goal · xG 0.12C. Cizikas · On goal · xG 0.11S. Mayfield · Missed · xG 0.11J. Ho-Sang · On goal · xG 0.10A. Lee · Goal · xG 0.09A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.09A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.07M. Barzal · Goal · xG 0.06A. Lee · Missed · xG 0.06J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.06D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.05A. Lee · Missed · xG 0.05A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.05R. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.04C. Cizikas · Missed · xG 0.04N. Leddy · On goal · xG 0.03C. Cizikas · On goal · xG 0.03A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.03J. Boychuk · On goal · xG 0.03J. Boychuk · Missed · xG 0.03S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.03J. Boychuk · Goal · xG 0.03J. Boychuk · On goal · xG 0.02A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.02S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.02D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.02A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.02S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.02D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.02N. Leddy · On goal · xG 0.02D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.02N. Leddy · On goal · xG 0.02S. Mayfield · Missed · xG 0.02S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.02N. Leddy · Missed · xG 0.02A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.02S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.02A. Beauvillier · Missed · xG 0.02T. Kuhnhackl · On goal · xG 0.01R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.01N. Leddy · On goal · xG 0.01J. Boychuk · On goal · xG 0.01R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.00L. Komarov · On goal · xG 0.00
NYI6 G · 2.5 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsNYI
2.13 G
All situations
5 G2.5
1.72 G
Even strength
5 G2.0
0.41 G
Power play
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 83 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT52%48%NYI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.08 – 1.99

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsNYI
27
Shots on goal
39
36%
Faceoffs
64%
1/2
Power play
0/1
21
Penalty minutes
21
24
Hits
20
18
Blocked shots
14
10
Giveaways
13
6
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
5C. CeciD101-330.16300—26:07
58M. LajoieD000010.22132—21:46
95M. DucheneC101-210.181003621:06
61M. StoneR101-130.32210—20:23
15Z. SmithC000-110.092046019:37
18R. DzingelC000-240.23110019:05
71C. TierneyC011-240.331003518:33
2D. DeMeloD000-110.03220—17:54
67B. HarpurD000-210.03125—17:43
36C. WhiteC000-120.110203117:23
89M. BoedkerL011000.00230—16:37
9B. RyanR011-200.00020—16:36
7B. TkachukL000-130.252003316:29
74M. BorowieckiD000-100.01615—13:53
83C. JarosD000-100.00015—13:30
72T. ChabotD011020.03000—08:47
56M. PaajarviL000-100.00000—07:07
13N. PaulL000010.070005007:02
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
33M. McKenna(L)38335.8681.99-3.0158:22

Season series

NYI leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).