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Predators at Jets
NHL

Nashville Predators at Winnipeg Jets

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
4
Winnipeg Jets
▸7
FinalTV CNBC, CBC·MTS Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Nashville Predators 7-4. The Jets came back from three goals down. The Jets led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Blake Wheeler's goal at 15:01 of the third period, which took the Jets' chances from 56% to 89%. Expected goals favored the Jets, 3.9 to 2.3; shots on goal were NSH 30, WPG 45. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 63% of the time. Pekka Rinne stopped 38 of 43 (.884), 1.9 goals below expected; Connor Hellebuyck stopped 26 of 30 (.867), 1.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Dustin Byfuglien (2 G, 1 A), 2. Jacob Trouba (1 G, 1 A), 3. Paul Stastny (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WPG
    D. Byfuglien2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    WPG
    J. Trouba1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    WPG
    P. Stastny1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH31206112430
WPGWPG010416319745

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    M. Fisher(1)
    R. Hartman (1), M. Ekholm (6)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    4:53
  2. NSH
    P. Subban(2)PPG
    F. Forsberg (6), R. Johansen (4)
    slapxG 0.10win prob +14 pts
    2-0
    10:06
  3. NSH
    A. Watson(5)
    M. Ekholm (7)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +11 pts
    3-0
    17:35

2nd period

  1. WPG
    P. Stastny(3)
    J. Trouba (1)
    deflectedxG 0.05win prob +11 pts
    3-1
    2:38
  2. WPG
    D. Byfuglien(2)
    B. Little (4), T. Myers (2)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +14 pts
    3-2
    5:11
  3. WPG
    J. Trouba(2)
    B. Wheeler (7), P. Stastny (5)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +18 pts
    3-3
    5:29
  4. WPG
    D. Byfuglien(3)
    P. Laine (5), P. Stastny (6)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +23 pts
    3-4
    19:15

3rd period

  1. NSH
    F. Forsberg(5)PPG
    R. Johansen (5), P. Subban (5)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +23 pts
    4-4
    7:40
  2. WPG
    B. Wheeler(2)PPG
    M. Scheifele (3), D. Byfuglien (7)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +33 pts
    4-5
    15:01
  3. WPG
    B. Wheeler(3)EN
    M. Scheifele (4)
    wristxG 0.38win prob +5 pts
    4-6
    19:09
  4. WPG
    B. Tanev(4)EN
    A. Lowry (1)
    wristxG 0.43
    4-7
    19:29

Penalties

NSH 17 PIM·WPG 15 PIM

1st

  • 2:15WPGJacob Trouba · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 8:44WPGBlake Wheeler · Trippingdrawn by Mattias Ekholm2 min
  • 12:50NSHAustin Watson · High stickingdrawn by Toby Enstrom2 min
  • 13:26WPGPatrik Laine · Trippingdrawn by Ryan Hartman2 min

2nd

  • 4:31NSHAustin Watson · Chargingdrawn by Blake Wheeler2 min
  • 4:31WPGMark Scheifele · Roughingdrawn by Austin Watson2 min

3rd

  • 1:32NSHNick Bonino · Fightingdrawn by Jacob Trouba5 min
  • 1:32WPGJacob Trouba · Fightingdrawn by Nick Bonino5 min
  • 4:25NSHColton Sissons · Roughingdrawn by Nikolaj Ehlers2 min
  • 6:50WPGJack Roslovic · Interferencedrawn by Colton Sissons2 min
  • 11:54NSHKevin Fiala · Trippingdrawn by Jacob Trouba2 min
  • 14:01NSHP.K. Subban · High stickingdrawn by Nikolaj Ehlers2 min
  • 15:31NSHPekka Rinne · Slashingdrawn by Adam Lowry2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WPG goalNSH goalFinal: WPG 100%

Biggest swing: Blake Wheeler, 3rd 15:01 — WPG 56% → 89%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Tanev · Goal · xG 0.43B. Wheeler · Goal · xG 0.38B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.22P. Laine · Missed · xG 0.17J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.16K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.14P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.13M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.13B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.13B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.12P. Laine · On goal · xG 0.11P. Laine · Missed · xG 0.10B. Wheeler · Goal · xG 0.10D. Byfuglien · On goal · xG 0.09P. Laine · On goal · xG 0.08T. Myers · Missed · xG 0.08P. Laine · On goal · xG 0.08B. Wheeler · Missed · xG 0.08B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.07J. Trouba · Goal · xG 0.07P. Stastny · Missed · xG 0.06N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.06B. Little · On goal · xG 0.06M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.05P. Laine · On goal · xG 0.05B. Tanev · On goal · xG 0.05P. Stastny · Goal · xG 0.05P. Laine · On goal · xG 0.05D. Byfuglien · Goal · xG 0.04D. Byfuglien · Goal · xG 0.04J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.04B. Little · On goal · xG 0.03D. Byfuglien · Missed · xG 0.03P. Laine · On goal · xG 0.03D. Byfuglien · On goal · xG 0.03T. Enstrom · Missed · xG 0.03D. Byfuglien · Missed · xG 0.03B. Tanev · On goal · xG 0.03D. Byfuglien · Missed · xG 0.03B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.03P. Laine · On goal · xG 0.02D. Byfuglien · Missed · xG 0.02J. Trouba · On goal · xG 0.02J. Trouba · On goal · xG 0.02B. Wheeler · Missed · xG 0.02T. Myers · On goal · xG 0.02N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.01J. Trouba · On goal · xG 0.01B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.01A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.01B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.01P. Laine · Missed · xG 0.01B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.01B. Little · On goal · xG 0.01B. Tanev · Missed · xG 0.01A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.01P. Laine · On goal · xG 0.01B. Tanev · On goal · xG 0.00
WPG7 G · 3.9 xG · 58 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsWPG
2.34 G
All situations
5 G3.9
1.62 G
Even strength
4 G2.2
0.52 G
Power play
1 G0.7
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 96 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH37%63%WPG

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.29 – 3.05

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsWPG
30
Shots on goal
45
43%
Faceoffs
57%
2/4
Power play
1/5
17
Penalty minutes
15
21
Hits
30
12
Blocked shots
11
9
Giveaways
11
6
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
76P. SubbanD112-210.25132—25:41
59R. JosiD000-320.08200—25:20
4R. EllisD000-220.06130—25:05
14M. EkholmD022-110.04010—21:53
92R. JohansenC022-300.001004819:17
10C. SissonsC000-110.021127516:59
33V. ArvidssonL000-330.39110—16:58
9F. ForsbergL112-190.67110—15:22
51A. WatsonL101+130.04104—15:03
15C. SmithC000-120.11600014:06
13N. BoninoC000-120.190052913:58
12M. FisherC101010.262005513:57
38R. HartmanR011-120.04100—12:53
22K. FialaL000-110.15002—12:28
8K. TurrisC000-100.000002212:12
20M. SalomakiR000000.00310—10:49
25A. EmelinD000000.00000—09:41
52M. IrwinD000000.00010—08:16
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35P. Rinne(L)43385.8843.09-1.9159:02

Series

WPG leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).