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Blackhawks at Sabres
NHL

Chicago Blackhawks at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Chicago Blackhawks
3
Buffalo Sabres
▸5
FinalTV NHLN-US, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Chicago Blackhawks 5-3. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nick Baptiste's goal at 18:04 of the third period, which took the Sabres' chances from 52% to 95%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.4 to 2.5; shots on goal were CHI 37, BUF 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. J-F Berube stopped 27 of 31 (.871), 1.2 goals below expected; Chad Johnson stopped 34 of 37 (.919), 0.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nick Baptiste (2 G), 2. Ryan O'Reilly (1 G, 1 A), 3. Sam Reinhart (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    N. Baptiste2 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    R. O'Reilly1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    S. Reinhart1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CHICHI01221619337
BUFBUF11216314532

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    B. Pouliot(13)
    R. Ristolainen (29), S. Reinhart (22)
    backhandxG 0.12win prob +15 pts
    0-1
    18:10

2nd period

  1. CHI
    J. Oesterle(5)
    P. Kane (43), J. Toews (31)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +17 pts
    1-1
    8:15
  2. BUF
    R. O'Reilly(20)PPG
    S. Reinhart (23), J. Eichel (32)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +17 pts
    1-2
    11:07
  3. CHI
    T. Jurco(4)
    A. DeBrincat (21)
    deflectedxG 0.15win prob +20 pts
    2-2
    14:15

3rd period

  1. CHI
    J. Toews(20)
    B. Saad (15), P. Kane (44)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +24 pts
    3-2
    0:20
  2. BUF
    N. Baptiste(3)
    N. Beaulieu (7), V. Antipin (10)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +25 pts
    3-3
    2:17
  3. BUF
    N. Baptiste(4)
    M. Scandella (15), J. Larsson (11)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +44 pts
    3-4
    18:04
  4. BUF
    S. Reinhart(19)EN
    R. O'Reilly (32)
    wristxG 0.56win prob +2 pts
    3-5
    19:21

Penalties

CHI 8 PIM·BUF 4 PIM

1st

  • 11:55BUFBrendan Guhle · Slashingdrawn by Connor Murphy2 min

2nd

  • 6:35BUFRasmus Ristolainen · Interferencedrawn by John Hayden2 min
  • 7:00CHIVinnie Hinostroza · Trippingdrawn by Ryan O'Reilly2 min
  • 9:46CHITomas Jurco · Slashingdrawn by Justin Falk2 min

3rd

  • 5:50CHIDuncan Keith · Trippingdrawn by Scott Wilson2 min
  • 16:03CHIBrent Seabrook · Hookingdrawn by Jack Eichel2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalCHI goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Nick Baptiste, 3rd 18:04 — BUF 52% → 95%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Reinhart · Goal · xG 0.56R. O'Reilly · Goal · xG 0.20J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.19S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.17R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.13J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.13R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.12N. Baptiste · Goal · xG 0.12B. Pouliot · Goal · xG 0.12N. Baptiste · Missed · xG 0.10J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.10S. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.10R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.09J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.09R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.08J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.08N. Baptiste · Goal · xG 0.08J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.07J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.07S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.06J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.06S. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.06J. Larsson · Missed · xG 0.06S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.06J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.05R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.04J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.04S. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.04J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.03J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.03R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.02R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.02S. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ristolainen · Missed · xG 0.02J. Falk · On goal · xG 0.02S. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.02M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.02E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.01R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.01V. Antipin · On goal · xG 0.01R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.01M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.01V. Antipin · On goal · xG 0.01M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.01J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.01J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF5 G · 3.4 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CHIvsBUF
2.53 G
All situations
4 G3.4
2.53 G
Even strength
3 G2.0
0.00 G
Power play
1 G0.8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 99 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CHI45%55%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.48 – 2.76

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CHIvsBUF
37
Shots on goal
32
43%
Faceoffs
57%
0/2
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
4
2
Hits
16
16
Blocked shots
11
6
Giveaways
11
1
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Chicago Blackhawks skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
2D. KeithD000010.01052—21:56
44J. RuttaD000+220.03000—20:28
56E. GustafssonD000030.08010—20:26
19J. ToewsC112050.320004619:56
7B. SeabrookD000-110.07142—19:39
88P. KaneR022+120.19000—19:30
20B. SaadL011030.350006018:32
82J. OesterleD101-210.10000—17:55
5C. MurphyD000-250.29120—17:41
8N. SchmaltzC000-200.050101817:00
15A. AnisimovC000030.170104616:12
48V. HinostrozaC000-100.000025013:13
12A. DeBrincatR011+120.1001010012:54
64D. KampfC000-120.080003312:20
36M. HighmoreC000-130.18000012:08
10P. SharpL000-110.1100010011:54
13T. JurcoR101+110.16002—11:48
40J. HaydenC000-120.1901010010:34
Chicago Blackhawks goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
34J. Berube(L)31274.8712.80-1.2058:33

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).