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Maple Leafs at Capitals
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
Washington Capitals
▸5
FinalTV NBC, SN·Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium

Recap

written from the game data

The Washington Capitals beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-2. The Capitals scored first and never trailed. The Capitals led 5-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was John Carlson's goal at 8:05 of the second period, which took the Capitals' chances from 71% to 86%. Expected goals favored the Capitals, 3.1 to 1.9; shots on goal were TOR 29, WSH 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Capitals win a replay of these chances 71% of the time. Frederik Andersen stopped 20 of 25 (.800), 2.8 goals below expected; Braden Holtby stopped 27 of 29 (.931). Three stars: 1. John Carlson (1 G, 2 A), 2. Evgeny Kuznetsov (1 G, 2 A), 3. Nicklas Backstrom (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WSH
    J. Carlson1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    WSH
    E. Kuznetsov1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    WSH
    N. Backstrom1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR17112010229
WSHWSH31221804534

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. WSH
    E. Kuznetsov(20)PPG
    N. Backstrom (32), J. Carlson (40)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +9 pts
    0-1
    3:50
  2. TOR
    Z. Hyman(13)
    R. Polak (8)
    deflectedxG 0.13win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    5:20
  3. WSH
    A. Ovechkin(40)
    T. Wilson (18), N. Backstrom (33)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +12 pts
    1-2
    6:19
  4. WSH
    N. Backstrom(16)PPG
    E. Kuznetsov (43), J. Carlson (41)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +12 pts
    1-3
    16:20

2nd period

  1. TOR
    N. Kadri(24)
    P. Marleau (15), T. Dermott (8)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    7:22
  2. WSH
    J. Carlson(12)
    C. Stephenson (10), J. Beagle (14)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +15 pts
    2-4
    8:05
  3. WSH
    J. Vrana(11)
    E. Kuznetsov (44), D. Orlov (16)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +8 pts
    2-5
    10:49

Penalties

TOR 4 PIM·WSH 4 PIM

1st

  • 2:43TORTravis Dermott · Holdingdrawn by Jay Beagle2 min
  • 12:20WSHJohn Carlson · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 15:28TORDominic Moore · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

3rd

  • 18:58WSHMatt Niskanen · Hookingdrawn by Tyler Bozak2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WSH goalTOR goalFinal: WSH 100%

Biggest swing: John Carlson, 2nd 8:05 — WSH 71% → 86%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Backstrom · On goal · xG 0.23A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.21A. Ovechkin · Goal · xG 0.20J. Carlson · Goal · xG 0.18J. Vrana · Goal · xG 0.16E. Kuznetsov · Goal · xG 0.15N. Backstrom · On goal · xG 0.14T. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.14M. Kempny · On goal · xG 0.13J. Beagle · On goal · xG 0.13J. Vrana · On goal · xG 0.13J. Beagle · On goal · xG 0.12A. Ovechkin · Missed · xG 0.12J. Vrana · On goal · xG 0.11T. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.10C. Stephenson · Missed · xG 0.10T. Oshie · Missed · xG 0.09A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.09T. Oshie · Missed · xG 0.08N. Backstrom · Goal · xG 0.08D. Smith-Pelly · On goal · xG 0.06J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.06C. Stephenson · Missed · xG 0.05M. Niskanen · On goal · xG 0.05T. Oshie · On goal · xG 0.04T. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.03B. Orpik · On goal · xG 0.02J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Niskanen · On goal · xG 0.02E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.02N. Backstrom · On goal · xG 0.02M. Kempny · On goal · xG 0.01B. Orpik · On goal · xG 0.01D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.01M. Kempny · On goal · xG 0.01L. Eller · On goal · xG 0.01A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.01C. Djoos · On goal · xG 0.00N. Backstrom · Missed · xG 0.00N. Backstrom · On goal · xG 0.00M. Kempny · Missed · xG 0.00
WSH5 G · 3.1 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsWSH
1.92 G
All situations
5 G3.1
1.42 G
Even strength
3 G2.8
0.50 G
Power play
2 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR29%71%WSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.84 – 3.04

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsWSH
29
Shots on goal
34
43%
Faceoffs
57%
0/2
Power play
2/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
26
Hits
22
11
Blocked shots
24
4
Giveaways
15
5
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
22N. ZaitsevD000-200.00140—23:03
51J. GardinerD000-120.05030—22:58
44M. RiellyD000060.20010—21:30
2R. HainseyD000-100.02110—19:32
11Z. HymanL101030.19200—19:03
29W. NylanderR000000.000103318:41
16M. MarnerR000-110.04100—18:37
12P. MarleauC011030.1200010017:17
43N. KadriC101030.274004016:47
42T. BozakC000000.000003616:12
23T. DermottD011+100.00302—15:37
47L. KomarovR000020.1451010015:10
25J. van RiemsdykL000040.25100—15:06
46R. PolakD011+120.05200—14:26
24K. KapanenR000-120.25400—13:46
19T. PlekanecC000010.201004511:27
28C. BrownR000000.06100—10:35
20D. MooreC000-100.000026308:15
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31F. Andersen(L)25205.8002.23-2.7731:10
35C. McElhinney9901.0000.88+0.8828:49

Season series

WSH leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).