Maple Leafs at Capitals 2-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Toronto Maple Leafs

▸2

Washington Capitals

FinalTV NBCSWA, TSN4·Capital One Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Washington Capitals 2-0. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. It was tied 0-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Connor Brown's goal at 5:53 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 48% to 76%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.3 to 1.7; shots on goal were TOR 30, WSH 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Frederik Andersen stopped 30 of 30 (1.000), 1.7 goals saved above expected; Braden Holtby stopped 28 of 29 (.966), 1.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Frederik Andersen (30 saves, 1.000), 2. Braden Holtby (28 saves, .966), 3. Connor Brown (1 G).

Three stars

★
F. Andersen30 saves, 1.000
★★
B. Holtby28 saves, .966
★★★
C. Brown1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	07	010	213	230
WSH	07	010	013	030

Scoring

2 goals

3rd period

C. Brown(2)
M. Rielly (4)
wristxG 0.21win prob +28 pts
1-0
5:53
N. Kadri(3)EN
M. Rielly (5), Z. Hyman (1)
wristxG 0.69win prob +3 pts
2-0
19:38

Penalties

6 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

18:50Patrick Marleau · Trippingdrawn by Tom Wilson2 min

2nd

14:11Nazem Kadri · Closing hand on puck2 min
16:48Nathan Walker · Holdingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min

3rd

1:08Alex Ovechkin · High stickingdrawn by Leo Komarov2 min
2:05Tyler Bozak · Slashingdrawn by Devante Smith-Pelly2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: WSH

Biggest swing: Connor Brown, 3rd 5:53 — TOR 48% → 76%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 1.7 xG · 39 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 3.3 xG · 48 att WSH

0 G · 1.7 xG · 39 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.31 G
All situations: 0 G1.7; 2.31 G
Even strength: 0 G1.2; 0.20 G
Power play: 0 G0.4; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

66%34%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.50 – 1.67

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

30
Shots on goal: 30; 45%
Faceoffs: 55%; 0/2
Power play: 0/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 4; 24
Hits: 24; 17
Blocked shots: 9; 10
Giveaways: 12; 4
Takeaways: 9

Box score

every player line

Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
22N. ZaitsevD	0	0	0	0	0	0.01	1	4	0	—	26:05
2R. HainseyD	0	0	0	+2	1	0.06	4	4	0	—	24:43
51J. GardinerD	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	1	1	0	—	22:08
11Z. HymanL	0	1	1	+1	2	0.17	2	0	0	—	20:30
44M. RiellyD	0	2	2	+2	3	0.18	0	3	0	—	20:07
29W. NylanderR	0	0	0	0	4	0.71	0	1	0	67	17:52
34A. MatthewsC	0	0	0	0	1	0.08	0	1	0	22	17:37
47L. KomarovR	0	0	0	+1	1	0.08	4	0	0	50	16:06
43N. KadriC	1	0	1	+1	4	1.04	0	0	2	57	15:57
12P. MarleauC	0	0	0	0	2	0.11	2	0	2	0	14:33
42T. BozakC	0	0	0	+1	2	0.02	1	1	2	29	13:33
28C. BrownR	1	0	1	+1	2	0.36	1	0	0	—	13:27
16M. MarnerR	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	0	1	0	100	12:49
8C. CarrickD	0	0	0	0	2	0.03	2	0	0	—	12:39
25J. van RiemsdykL	0	0	0	+1	3	0.34	2	0	0	—	12:27
20D. MooreC	0	0	0	0	2	0.05	1	1	0	33	12:22
48C. RosenD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	11:15
15M. MartinL	0	0	0	0	0	0.01	3	0	0	—	09:50

Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
31F. Andersen(W)	30	30	0	1.000	1.69	+1.69	60:00

Season series

WSH leads 2-1

Oct 172@0this game
Nov 254@2Final
Mar 32@5Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score