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Lightning at Senators
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
3
Ottawa Senators
▸6
FinalTV SUN, SN1·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 6-3. The Senators scored first and never trailed. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mark Stone's goal at 10:44 of the third period, which took the Senators' chances from 52% to 84%. Expected goals were close — TBL 3.3, OTT 3.1; shots on goal were TBL 48, OTT 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 27 of 33 (.818), 2.9 goals below expected; Craig Anderson stopped 45 of 48 (.938). Three stars: 1. Ryan Dzingel (2 G), 2. Mark Stone (1 G, 2 A), 3. Craig Anderson (45 saves, .938).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    R. Dzingel2 G
  2. ★★
    OTT
    M. Stone1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    C. Anderson45 saves, .938

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL013320015348
OTTOTT312010311633

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    R. Dzingel(12)
    M. Stone (22)
    snapxG 0.21win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    4:48
  2. OTT
    M. Duchene(10)
    B. Ryan (12)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    5:51
  3. OTT
    Z. Smith(3)
    E. Karlsson (25), J. Oduya (4)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +9 pts
    0-3
    17:04

2nd period

  1. TBL
    V. Hedman(5)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.11win prob +9 pts
    1-3
    0:26
  2. TBL
    S. Koekkoek(4)
    N. Kucherov (32), A. Killorn (18)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    1:41
  3. TBL
    Y. Gourde(12)PPG
    M. Sergachev (18), T. Johnson (18)
    deflectedxG 0.11win prob +16 pts
    3-3
    15:57

3rd period

  1. OTT
    M. Stone(17)
    D. Brassard (16), T. Chabot (6)
    snapxG 0.30win prob +32 pts
    3-4
    10:44
  2. OTT
    J. Pageau(6)
    E. Karlsson (26)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +7 pts
    3-5
    14:57
  3. OTT
    R. Dzingel(13)
    E. Karlsson (27), M. Stone (23)
    backhandxG 0.07
    3-6
    17:08

Penalties

TBL 10 PIM·OTT 14 PIM

1st

  • 2:09OTTMike Hoffman · Trippingdrawn by Ondrej Palat2 min
  • 11:40OTTGabriel Dumont · High stickingdrawn by Ryan Callahan2 min
  • 17:47TBLVictor Hedman · Roughingdrawn by Alexandre Burrows2 min

2nd

  • 4:12TBLMikhail Sergachev · Boardingdrawn by Gabriel Dumont2 min
  • 10:32OTTZack Smith · Cross checkingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min
  • 10:32TBLNikita Kucherov · Cross checkingdrawn by Zack Smith2 min
  • 15:40OTTZack Smith · Roughingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min
  • 16:42TBLRyan Callahan · Holdingdrawn by Derick Brassard2 min
  • 19:46OTTJohnny Oduya · Cross checkingdrawn by Vladislav Namestnikov2 min

3rd

  • 14:54TBLJake Dotchin · Cross checkingdrawn by Derick Brassard2 min
  • 14:54OTTDerick Brassard · Roughingdrawn by Jake Dotchin2 min
  • 17:27OTTBen Harpur · Slashingdrawn by Ryan Callahan2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalTBL goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Mark Stone, 3rd 10:44 — OTT 52% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.35M. Stone · Goal · xG 0.30D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.25R. Dzingel · Goal · xG 0.21M. Duchene · Goal · xG 0.18G. Dumont · On goal · xG 0.13M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.13D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.12R. Dzingel · Missed · xG 0.11M. Hoffman · Missed · xG 0.11M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.11A. Burrows · On goal · xG 0.10Z. Smith · Goal · xG 0.10M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.10M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.10B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.07M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.07R. Dzingel · Goal · xG 0.07A. Burrows · Missed · xG 0.05J. Pageau · Goal · xG 0.05M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.03E. Karlsson · Missed · xG 0.03J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.02B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.02G. Dumont · On goal · xG 0.02E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.02T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.02B. Harpur · Missed · xG 0.02D. Brassard · Missed · xG 0.02T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.02T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.02C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.02T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Smith · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dzingel · On goal · xG 0.01D. Phaneuf · Missed · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.01D. Phaneuf · On goal · xG 0.01C. Ceci · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Smith · Missed · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.00G. Dumont · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT6 G · 3.1 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsOTT
3.33 G
All situations
6 G3.1
2.22 G
Even strength
6 G2.8
1.01 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 114 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL53%47%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.20 – 2.99

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsOTT
48
Shots on goal
33
48%
Faceoffs
53%
1/5
Power play
0/3
10
Penalty minutes
14
22
Hits
26
12
Blocked shots
22
8
Giveaways
10
0
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD101060.36512—28:26
59J. DotchinD000-100.04022—20:51
21B. PointC000020.160105019:25
9T. JohnsonC011040.300004318:54
86N. KucherovR011-220.11002—18:28
91S. StamkosC000-230.280004718:07
6A. StralmanD000-430.03100—17:06
18O. PalatL000000.01300—16:54
90V. NamestnikovC000-240.481205016:36
37Y. GourdeC101-120.370001416:31
17A. KillornL011+150.45100—16:22
98M. SergachevD011-430.05302—15:59
29S. KoekkoekD101040.09310—15:19
5D. GirardiD000020.01030—14:06
24R. CallahanR000-110.161025011:35
89C. ConacherC000-120.14100009:53
14C. KunitzL000-130.10120—09:17
13C. PaquetteC000-120.132006708:22
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(L)33276.8183.08-2.9257:49

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).