Ohio vs Nebraska Prediction, Picks & Odds — Sep 5, 2026

Nebraska is favored by 23.8 mostly on paperwork. The largest slice of the 15.5-point rating gap is last season's body of work, worth 4.9 points, with home field at 4.5 and roster talent at 4.2 behind it. The quarterback advantage everyone will lead with is worth 2.7, and returning production tilts 1.6 points back toward Ohio. Nebraska's rating leans harder on what happened in 2025 than on the roster that takes the field Saturday.

0%

-38

0%

-32

1%

-24

2%

-18

4%

-10

8%

-4

13%

+4

17%

+10

18%

+18

16%

+24

11%

+32

7%

+38

3%

+46

Ohio winsNebraska wins

Market: Nebraska −24Projected: Nebraska by 16 (84%)

The range of outcomes for this game. Each bar is how often the final margin lands in that range — the more it leans toward Nebraska, the more likely Nebraska wins.

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Last year's ledger, staffed by different people

Nebraska returns 40% of last season's passing production and 30% of its rushing. The 7-6 season the rating leans on was produced substantially by players who are gone, Dylan Raiola to Oregon among them. Ohio's continuity runs the other direction: all of its rushing production and 55% of its passing are back from a 9-4 team that gave up 21.9 points a game. The gap between these programs is real; the evidence underneath it is thinner than 23.8 suggests.

◄OhiofavorsNebraska►

Last season's body of worklast year's power rating, regressed toward the averageNebraska +5

Roster talentoverall talent level of the roster — recruiting pedigree plus an independent preseason roster gradeNebraska +4

Quarterbackthe projected starter's quality and how settled the job isNebraska +3

Returning productionhow much of last year's production is back this seasonOhio +2

Each ingredient of our projection and the side it favors — bars toward Nebraska are why it's the pick (home field is counted separately).

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Talent still favors the home team, and it should: Nebraska signed two blue-chips in a #68 class against Ohio's zero, and its portal cycle graded as a net gain even while shipping out 19 players. Danny Odem, the 4-star corner headlining that class, has not taken a college snap. Against a MAC roster returning 100% of its rushing production, Nebraska's 4.2-point talent premium is the least likely of its advantages to show up Saturday.

The ground matchup that shouldn't exist at this number

Nebraska's rush defense finished #132 of 136, bottom four nationally, and it faces the one unit Ohio brought back whole. Ohio's #20 rushing offense against that front is a 1.6-standard-deviation edge, the largest single-unit gap in the game, and unlike most preseason unit claims this one survives the continuity check outright. Nebraska's rushing offense, by contrast, returns 30% of last year's production into a #59 unit.

When Ohio has the ball— its offense vs Nebraska’s defense

Passing: Ohio O #59 vs Nebraska D #42Nebraska · slight edge

Rushing: Ohio O #20 vs Nebraska D #132Ohio · big edge

◄ Nebraska defense winsOhio offense wins ►

When Nebraska has the ball— its offense vs Ohio’s defense

Passing: Nebraska O #81 vs Ohio D #52Ohio · slight edge

Rushing: Nebraska O #59 vs Ohio D #53Ohio · slight edge

◄ Ohio defense winsNebraska offense wins ►

Read it by possession: each side shows what happens when that team has the ball — its offense against the other team's defense, unit by unit (national rank in parentheses). Last season's grades, shrunk toward average by how much of each unit's production actually returns. Ohio returns 55% of last season's passing production and 100% of its rushing production. Nebraska returns 40% of last season's passing production and 30% of its rushing production. Ohio's projected line: 3 of 5 held over, 2 portal; Nebraska's projected line: 2 of 5 held over, 3 portal.

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The complication is up front and outside. Ohio lost left-side starter Jordon Jones to Troy and 4-star wideout Chase Hendricks to California, and its portal cycle grades as a net loss once position weight is applied, minus-12 against a raw star gain of five. The 55% of Ohio's passing production that returns has to threaten Nebraska's #42 pass defense enough to keep the box honest, or Jones's replacement blocks a crowded front all night.

Duncan Brune projects for 21 to 58 rushing yards with a 41% chance of a touchdown, a modest band for a back working against the country's fourth-worst run defense, and the tell about how this game is expected to unfold. Ohio's edge only converts into points if it holds the ball long enough to use it. Volume, not efficiency, is what Ohio has to manufacture, and Dom Dorwart's 13-to-22-yard band says the passing game won't manufacture it.

Colandrea's certainty matters more than his ceiling

Anthony Colandrea arrives from UNLV with three FBS seasons and +0.235 career EPA per play, and the job is settled. Ohio's is not: Nick Poulos projects to start on two FBS seasons and +0.078, a real if unremarkable body of work, with New Hampshire transfer Matt Vezza pushing him having never taken an FBS snap. Ohio's 2.7-point quarterback deficit is mostly the cost of not knowing in August whether Poulos or Vezza takes the first snap.

Neither of these defenses gets to the quarterback

Ohio produced 20 sacks (#99) and 57 tackles for loss (#103) last season. Nebraska managed 19 sacks (#103) and 61 TFLs (#91). Colandrea in his first year at Nebraska, and whichever quarterback Ohio names, get to work against pass rushes that both finished in the bottom quarter nationally. With neither front likely to force mistakes on its own, Ohio's 11 interceptions against Nebraska's six become the most valuable defensive number on the field.

Ohio's 11 picks ranked #44; Nebraska's six ranked #102. Ohio's returning disruption is three linebackers, Jack Fries, Michael Molnar and Charlie Christopher, who combine for 3.5 sacks and eight pass breakups. Fries, Molnar and Christopher cover and tackle rather than rush the passer. Michigan State transfer Tyler Gillison is the bet that Ohio can generate an edge rush it didn't have, and it needs to land, because Colandrea with a clean pocket is how this becomes a four-score night.

Nebraska's own answer to the front-seven problem was transactional: 4-star lineman Keona Davis went to Miami, and Pitt's Jahsear Whittington and UCLA's Anthony Jones came in behind Williams Nwaneri's 2.5 sacks. In the secondary, Donovan Jones and Andrew Marshall return with one interception apiece. A team that took the ball away six times all year can't count on its defense to bail out a slow start against Ohio's returning run game.

Ohio's cover Case is more achievable than Nebraska's stack

Ohio's route to +23.8 is unglamorous and available: grind clock behind the run edge, break even in giveaways, keep Nebraska's offense to the ten or eleven possessions it needs. The projection has Nebraska winning methodically and landing roughly eight points inside the number, which is a different outcome than an upset. Nebraska's win probability sits at 84%, and Ohio's 16% is not a close game waiting to happen.

The projection also gives a margin of 20 or more about a 42% chance, against roughly a one-in-four chance of a one-score finish. Ohio's entire plan requires a quiet first quarter. If Nebraska scores early and Ohio's undecided quarterback has to throw against a secondary returning Donovan Jones and Andrew Marshall, the #20 rushing offense never gets the carries that make it matter, and the 1.6-sigma edge goes unused.

What each side has to do

Nebraska needs Colandrea to be the settled, efficient operator his three seasons suggest, and needs its rebuilt front to hold up against the one thing Ohio does well, because a rush defense that finished #132 does not get a pass against a backfield returning intact. Ohio needs to name a quarterback who doesn't have to win the game, run enough plays to make the mismatch count, and take the ball away at least twice.