Ohio vs. Nebraska: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OHIOTeam statsNEB
- Q4 1:53NEBKwazi Gilmer 9 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Kyle Cunanan Kick)21–49
- Q4 5:57NEBJamal Rule 11 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)21–42
- Q4 9:10NEBMekhi Nelson 51 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Kyle Cunanan Kick)21–35
- Q4 12:05OHIONick Poulos 1 Yd Run (Nick Poulos Pass to Dom Dorwart for Two-Point Conversion)21–28
- Q3 1:17NEBMekhi Nelson 29 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)13–28
- Q3 4:41NEBAnthony Colandrea 13 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)13–21
- Q2 8:13NEBJamal Rule 24 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Kyle Cunanan Kick)13–14
- Q2 10:38OHIOWill Hryszko 45 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q1 3:16OHIOWill Hryszko 42 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 8:19NEBJamal Rule 1 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:49OHIORiley Neer 4 Yd pass from Nick Poulos (Will Hryszko Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What actually decided Nebraska's win over Ohio — beyond the final score.
There was no drama to speak of. Nebraska dismantles Ohio, 49-21 at Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE). Ohio drew level at 7-7 before Nebraska pulled away for good. Anthony Colandrea threw for 275 yards on 32 attempts with three touchdowns and ran 10 times for 23 yards and one score.
- PassNick Poulos 14/31, 164 YDS, 1 TD
- RushNick Poulos 10 CAR, 70 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRiley Neer 6 REC, 104 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAnthony Colandrea 18/32, 275 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJamal Rule 15 CAR, 122 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMekhi Nelson 2 REC, 65 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNEB up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 13:27NEB +54%
#83 A.Wilson punt 40 yards to the OHI49 fair catch by #4 D.James-Hamilton at OHI49
- Q4 8:21OHIO +48%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 J.Rule rush left for 39 yards gain to the OHI31 (#4 D.James-Hamilton), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 4:41NEB +28%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea rush left for 13 yards gain to the OHI00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 1:17NEB +19%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 M.Nelson rush right for 29 yards gain to the OHI00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 8:13NEB +18%
No Huddle #10 A.Colandrea pass complete short right to #25 J.Rule caught at OHI24, for 24 yards to the OHI00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 8:19NEB +15%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 J.Rule rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OHI00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Ohio vs. Nebraska?
Ohio 21, Nebraska 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NEB) was correct.
| OHIO | NEB | |
|---|---|---|
| 303 | Total yards | 523 |
| 164 | Passing yards | 275 |
| 139 | Rushing yards | 248 |
| 17 | First downs | 28 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 9-14 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 14/32 | Comp/Att | 18/32 |
| 5.1 | Yards per pass | 8.6 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 5.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 2-30 | Penalties | 9-65 |
| 29:21 | Possession | 30:39 |
Costliest call
Q2 6:11 NEB punt on 4th & 3 at NEB 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.35 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:53NEBKwazi Gilmer 9 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Kyle Cunanan Kick)21–49
- Q4 5:57NEBJamal Rule 11 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)21–42
- Q4 9:10NEBMekhi Nelson 51 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Kyle Cunanan Kick)21–35
- Q4 12:05OHIONick Poulos 1 Yd Run (Nick Poulos Pass to Dom Dorwart for Two-Point Conversion)21–28
- Q3 1:17NEBMekhi Nelson 29 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)13–28
- Q3 4:41NEBAnthony Colandrea 13 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)13–21
- Q2 8:13NEBJamal Rule 24 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Kyle Cunanan Kick)13–14
- Q2 10:38OHIOWill Hryszko 45 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q1 3:16OHIOWill Hryszko 42 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 8:19NEBJamal Rule 1 Yd Run (Kyle Cunanan Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:49OHIORiley Neer 4 Yd pass from Nick Poulos (Will Hryszko Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NEB Elo 1538, OHIO Elo 1372 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NEB -15.1 (83% to win) — 8.4 points clear of OHIO's market line of -23.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| OHIO | NEB | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.9 (#109) | CORE overall | +12.2 (#32) |
| -2 / +8 | offense / defense | +8 / -4 |
| 2.00 | points / drive | 4.46 |
| 4.46 | allowed / drive | 2.00 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 9% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Anthony Colandrea produced eight of Nebraska's twelve explosive plays
What actually decided Nebraska's win over Ohio — beyond the final score.
Cumulative margin after each quarter (lead change). Above the line = OHIO ahead, below = NEBR ahead.
The big plays only went one way
Nebraska produced 12 plays of 15+ yards to Ohio's 5: Anthony Colandrea (involved in 8), Jamal Rule (involved in 4) and Mekhi Nelson (involved in 2). Nebraska scored on 64% of its drives to Ohio's 33%, chiefly Anthony Colandrea (24 pts), Jamal Rule (18 pts) and Mekhi Nelson (12 pts). Stacked together, that is what turned a close game into this one.
The difference-makers
Anthony Colandrea threw for 275 yards on 32 attempts with three touchdowns and ran 10 times for 23 yards and one score, including two of them from inside the 20, six third-down conversions and a hand in eight plays of 15 yards or more. Jamal Rule ran 15 times for 122 yards and two scores and caught two passes for 47 yards, one of them for a touchdown — two of them from inside the 20, four third-down conversions and a hand in four plays of 15 yards or more. Mekhi Nelson ran 10 times for 64 yards and one score and caught two passes for 65 yards, one of them for a touchdown. For Ohio, Nick Poulos threw for 164 yards on 31 attempts with one touchdown and ran 10 times for 70 yards and one score, including two of them from inside the 20, four third-down conversions and a hand in four plays of 15 yards or more. Riley Neer caught six passes for 104 yards, one of them for a touchdown — that score from inside the 20 and two third-down conversions. Victor Rosa ran five times for 7 yards and caught one pass for 5 yards. Rex Guthrie was the disruptive one for Nebraska: 1 INT, 3 tackles.
What Ohio has to fix
Ohio was not without production. Nick Poulos threw for 164 yards on 31 attempts with one touchdown and ran 10 times for 70 yards and one score, but it arrived in a game that was already gone.
The defensive story
Two names to keep: Rex Guthrie (1 INT, 3 tackles) for Nebraska and R.Van (1 sack, 1 TFL, 2 tackles) for Nebraska. 3 of Nebraska's 3 sacks came from the defensive line — a change from the 63% it had averaged over the previous 8 seasons.
The takeaway
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Nebraska did exactly what a better team should against Ohio: leave no doubt. Nick Poulos was responsible for 12 of Ohio's points; there was not enough behind him.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →