Colorado vs. Colorado State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
COLOTeam statsCSU
- Q4 9:58CSUJustin Marshall 5 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)28–9
- Q4 13:20COLOTravis Hunter 21 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Alejandro Mata Kick)28–3
- Q3 10:11COLOTravis Hunter 2 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Alejandro Mata Kick)21–3
- Q2 0:58COLOLaJohntay Wester 34 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Alejandro Mata Kick)14–3
- Q2 5:51COLOLaJohntay Wester 4 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Alejandro Mata Kick)7–3
- Q1 7:21CSUJordan Noyes 25 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassShedeur Sanders 36/49, 310 YDS, 4 TD
- RushMicah Welch 9 CAR, 65 YDS
- RecTravis Hunter 13 REC, 100 YDS, 2 TD
- PassBrayden Fowler-Nicolosi 22/39, 209 YDS, 2 INT
- RushAvery Morrow 3 CAR, 67 YDS
- RecJamari Person 7 REC, 51 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCOLO up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 836 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 5:51COLO +22%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 4 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
- Q2 0:58COLO +19%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 34 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
- Q3 10:11COLO +14%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 2 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
- Q1 7:21CSU +8%
Jordan Noyes 25 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Colorado vs. Colorado State?
Colorado 28, Colorado State 9.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| COLO | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 419 | Total yards | 340 |
| 310 | Passing yards | 209 |
| 109 | Rushing yards | 131 |
| 23 | First downs | 17 |
| 5-11 | 3rd down | 4-15 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 5-6 |
| 36/49 | Comp/Att | 22/39 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 5.4 |
| 5.7 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 12-115 | Penalties | 10-94 |
| 30:07 | Possession | 29:53 |
Costliest call
Q3 4:01 CSU go for it on 4th & 6 at COLO 23. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.57 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:58CSUJustin Marshall 5 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)28–9
- Q4 13:20COLOTravis Hunter 21 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Alejandro Mata Kick)28–3
- Q3 10:11COLOTravis Hunter 2 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Alejandro Mata Kick)21–3
- Q2 0:58COLOLaJohntay Wester 34 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Alejandro Mata Kick)14–3
- Q2 5:51COLOLaJohntay Wester 4 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Alejandro Mata Kick)7–3
- Q1 7:21CSUJordan Noyes 25 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CSU Elo 1261, COLO Elo 1307 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CSU -0.6 (53% to win) — 8.1 points clear of CSU's market line of +7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesColorado leads 64–22–2 · Colorado has won 7 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| COLO | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +15.0 (#22) | CORE overall | -5.1 (#86) |
| +3 / -12 | offense / defense | -3 / +2 |
| 2.52 | points / drive | 1.84 |
| 1.64 | allowed / drive | 2.16 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +15 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →