Delaware vs. Penn State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Delaware

07

Penn State1-0

▸0063

Final

Beaver Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
DEL	7	0	0	0	7
PSU	14	21	21	7	63

DELTeam statsPSU

140Total yards541

58Pass226

82Rush315

5First downs34

2-113rd down8-14

2Turnovers0

17:38Possession42:22

Scoring plays

• Q4 7:35PSUOmari Evans 4 Yd pass from Beau Pribula (Alex Felkins Kick)7–63
• Q3 2:43PSUDominic DeLuca 26 Yd Interception Return (Alex Felkins Kick)7–56
• Q3 7:16PSUBeau Pribula 6 Yd Run (Alex Felkins Kick)7–49
• Q3 9:48PSUDrew Allar 1 Yd Run (Sander Sahaydak Kick)7–42
• Q2 0:22PSUTyler Warren 2 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Alex Felkins Kick)7–35
• Q2 4:36PSUNicholas Singleton 5 Yd Run (Alex Felkins Kick)7–28
• Q2 11:50PSUNicholas Singleton 5 Yd Run (Alex Felkins Kick)7–21
• Q1 1:05DELMarcus Yarns 66 Yd Run (Alex Schmoke Kick)7–14
• Q1 2:16PSUKaytron Allen 4 Yd Run (Alex Felkins Kick)0–14
• Q1 8:19PSUNicholas Singleton 2 Yd Run (Alex Felkins Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

PSU −43.5

Against the number

PSU covered

line PSU −43.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

PSU 100%50%DEL 100%

Kickoff152 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

PSU (top)DEL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: PSU 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

PSU −43.5

Closing total

56.0

Model line

—

Actual result

DEL 7 – 63 PSU

Leaders

Delaware

• PassZach Marker 3/7, 37 YDS, 1 INT
• RushMarcus Yarns 6 CAR, 86 YDS, 1 TD
• RecJoJo Bermudez 2 REC, 32 YDS

Penn State

• PassDrew Allar 22/26, 204 YDS, 1 TD
• RushKaytron Allen 19 CAR, 103 YDS, 1 TD
• RecKeAndre Lambert-Smith 6 REC, 74 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

26.7sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

135

Points / snap

0.52

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

PSU up 49 entering the 4th quarter. Across 70 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

PSU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WCentral Arkansas vs Texas College70-2WDrake vs South Dakota State70-7WPenn State vs Massachusetts63-0WSouthern Illinois vs Western Illinois63-0WIdaho vs Idaho State63-21

Fourth downs

14 calls

DEL gave up 0.9 points to the model on fourth down.DEL 7/9 · PSU 5/5 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Delaware vs. Penn State?

Delaware 7, Penn State 63.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (PSU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

DEL

PSU

19%

Success rate

58%

-0.60

EPA / pass

0.39

-0.01

EPA / rush

0.38

17%

Early-down success

57%

23%

Pass success

59%

15%

Rush success

57%

7%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

11%

25%

Stuffed rush rate

8%

52%

Pass rate

34%

7.8

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.1

DEL

7.8 yards to go on 3rd down

42 scrimmage snaps

PSU

6.1 yards to go on 3rd down

93 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

DEL		PSU
140	Total yards	541
58	Passing yards	226
82	Rushing yards	315
5	First downs	34
2-11	3rd down	8-14
0-0	4th down	3-3
6/17	Comp/Att	25/31
3.4	Yards per pass	7.3
3.4	Yards per rush	5.3
2	Turnovers	0
5-33	Penalties	7-55
17:38	Possession	42:22

Fourth downs

14 calls

DEL

7/9 with the model

−0.9 pts · −0.0% win prob

PSU

5/5 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q2 11:50 DEL punt on 4th & 1 at DEL 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.

Every call, priced (14)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

DEL 2/12 scoring drives← own end zone →PSU 8/11 scoring drives

DELPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q1

PSUTD13 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q1

DELPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 25Q1

PSUTD9 pl, 37 yds· opp 37Q1

DELTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

PSUTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

DELPUNT6 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q2

DELEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q2

PSUTD9 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q2

DELPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 9Q2

PSUPUNT5 pl, 16 yds· own 30Q2

DELPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 7Q2

PSUTD6 pl, 49 yds· opp 49Q2

PSUTD10 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q3

DELFUM1 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q3

PSUTD5 pl, 31 yds· opp 31Q3

DELPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q3

PSUPUNT6 pl, 11 yds· own 25Q3

DELTD2 pl, 5 yds· own 20Q3

DELMISS11 pl, 46 yds· own 25Q3

PSUTD8 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q4

DELPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q4

PSUEND11 pl, 42 yds· own 32Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 7:35PSUOmari Evans 4 Yd pass from Beau Pribula (Alex Felkins Kick)7–63
• Q3 2:43PSUDominic DeLuca 26 Yd Interception Return (Alex Felkins Kick)7–56
• Q3 7:16PSUBeau Pribula 6 Yd Run (Alex Felkins Kick)7–49
• Q3 9:48PSUDrew Allar 1 Yd Run (Sander Sahaydak Kick)7–42
• Q2 0:22PSUTyler Warren 2 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Alex Felkins Kick)7–35
• Q2 4:36PSUNicholas Singleton 5 Yd Run (Alex Felkins Kick)7–28
• Q2 11:50PSUNicholas Singleton 5 Yd Run (Alex Felkins Kick)7–21
• Q1 1:05DELMarcus Yarns 66 Yd Run (Alex Schmoke Kick)7–14
• Q1 2:16PSUKaytron Allen 4 Yd Run (Alex Felkins Kick)0–14
• Q1 8:19PSUNicholas Singleton 2 Yd Run (Alex Felkins Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →