South Florida vs. Temple: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USFTeam statsTEM
- Q4 6:02TEMEdward Saydee 27 Yd Run (Camden Price Kick)28–54
- Q4 9:10TEMAdonicas Sanders 8 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Camden Price Kick)28–47
- Q4 14:22TEMJose Barbon 21 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Camden Price Kick)28–40
- Q3 0:51USFHolden Willis 2 Yd pass from Katravis Marsh (Spencer Shrader Kick)28–33
- Q3 2:50TEMCamden Price 35 Yd Field Goal 21–33
- Q3 11:08TEMEdward Saydee 40 Yd Run (Camden Price Kick)21–30
- Q3 13:31USFJimmy Horn Jr. 55 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)21–23
- Q3 14:48TEMEdward Saydee 75 Yd Run (Camden Price Kick)14–23
- Q2 0:37USFXavier Weaver 11 Yd pass from Katravis Marsh (Spencer Shrader Kick)14–16
- Q2 1:10TEMDarvon Hubbard 4 Yd Run (Camden Price Kick)7–16
- Q2 4:07TEMCamden Price 32 Yd Field Goal 7–9
- Q2 11:26TEMCamden Price 34 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 3:06TEMCamden Price 32 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 6:30USFXavier Weaver 10 Yd pass from Katravis Marsh (Spencer Shrader Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassKatravis Marsh 11/22, 176 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushBrian Battie 19 CAR, 129 YDS
- RecXavier Weaver 6 REC, 119 YDS, 2 TD
- PassE.J. Warner 27/36, 344 YDS, 2 TD
- RushEdward Saydee 24 CAR, 265 YDS, 3 TD
- RecJose Barbon 8 REC, 103 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTEM up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:10TEM +28%
Darvon Hubbard run for 4 yds for a TD, (Camden Price KICK)
- Q3 11:08TEM +25%
Edward Saydee run for 40 yds for a TD, (Camden Price KICK)
- Q3 13:31USF +24%
Jimmy Horn Jr. run for 55 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)
- Q3 0:51USF +24%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Holden Willis for 2 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)
- Q2 0:37USF +23%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 11 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)
- Q3 14:48TEM +23%
Edward Saydee run for 75 yds for a TD, (Camden Price KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of South Florida vs. Temple?
South Florida 28, Temple 54.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| USF | TEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 471 | Total yards | 621 |
| 190 | Passing yards | 344 |
| 281 | Rushing yards | 277 |
| 21 | First downs | 28 |
| 7-15 | 3rd down | 6-11 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 14/27 | Comp/Att | 27/36 |
| 7.0 | Yards per pass | 9.6 |
| 6.5 | Yards per rush | 9.2 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-18 | Penalties | 8-47 |
| 31:57 | Possession | 28:03 |
Costliest call
Q1 15:00 USF go for it on 4th & 6 at TEM 21. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.56 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:02TEMEdward Saydee 27 Yd Run (Camden Price Kick)28–54
- Q4 9:10TEMAdonicas Sanders 8 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Camden Price Kick)28–47
- Q4 14:22TEMJose Barbon 21 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Camden Price Kick)28–40
- Q3 0:51USFHolden Willis 2 Yd pass from Katravis Marsh (Spencer Shrader Kick)28–33
- Q3 2:50TEMCamden Price 35 Yd Field Goal 21–33
- Q3 11:08TEMEdward Saydee 40 Yd Run (Camden Price Kick)21–30
- Q3 13:31USFJimmy Horn Jr. 55 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)21–23
- Q3 14:48TEMEdward Saydee 75 Yd Run (Camden Price Kick)14–23
- Q2 0:37USFXavier Weaver 11 Yd pass from Katravis Marsh (Spencer Shrader Kick)14–16
- Q2 1:10TEMDarvon Hubbard 4 Yd Run (Camden Price Kick)7–16
- Q2 4:07TEMCamden Price 32 Yd Field Goal 7–9
- Q2 11:26TEMCamden Price 34 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 3:06TEMCamden Price 32 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 6:30USFXavier Weaver 10 Yd pass from Katravis Marsh (Spencer Shrader Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TEM Elo 1019, USF Elo 1180 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TEM +4 (40% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#28 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #90 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →Temple leads 6–4 · 20% have been one-possession games
| USF | TEM | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.6 (#116) | CORE overall | -10.2 (#100) |
| +3 / +20 | offense / defense | -7 / +3 |
| 2.23 | points / drive | 1.68 |
| 3.98 | allowed / drive | 2.37 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| -9 | pass over expected | +11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →