Wake Forest vs. Louisville: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WAKETeam statsLOU
- Q4 0:14WAKETrey Boll 5 Yd pass from Mitch Griffis (Zach Murphy Kick)21–48
- Q3 0:00LOUQuincy Riley 90 Yd Interception Return (James Turner Kick)14–48
- Q3 3:12LOUJaelin Carter 28 Yd pass from Braden Smith (James Turner Kick)14–41
- Q3 4:09LOUMalik Cunningham 9 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)14–34
- Q3 6:04LOUTiyon Evans 52 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)14–27
- Q3 14:13LOUKei'Trel Clark 46 Yd Interception Return (James Turner Kick)14–20
- Q2 5:45WAKEJahmal Banks 16 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Matthew Dennis Kick)14–13
- Q2 11:15WAKEJustice Ellison 3 Yd Run (Matthew Dennis Kick)7–13
- Q2 14:27LOUMalik Cunningham 1 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)0–13
- Q1 5:43LOUJames Turner 39 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 11:08LOUJames Turner 29 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassSam Hartman 20/35, 271 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushWill Towns 7 CAR, 54 YDS
- RecDonavon Greene 3 REC, 75 YDS
- PassMalik Cunningham 15/23, 164 YDS
- RushTiyon Evans 11 CAR, 106 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTyler Hudson 6 REC, 77 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLOU up 34 entering the 4th quarter. Across 345 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 14:13LOU +25%
Sam Hartman pass intercepted for a TD Kei'Trel Clark return for 46 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)
- Q2 5:45WAKE +22%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 16 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)
- Q3 6:04LOU +19%
Tiyon Evans run for 52 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)
- Q2 11:15WAKE +18%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dennis KICK)
- Q2 14:27LOU +18%
Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd for a TD, (James Turner KICK)
- Q3 4:09LOU +10%
Malik Cunningham run for 9 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Wake Forest vs. Louisville?
Wake Forest 21, Louisville 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WAKE, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WAKE | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 402 | Total yards | 410 |
| 310 | Passing yards | 199 |
| 92 | Rushing yards | 211 |
| 29 | First downs | 19 |
| 8-16 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 26/44 | Comp/Att | 18/27 |
| 7.0 | Yards per pass | 7.4 |
| 2.0 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-15 | Penalties | 9-95 |
| 33:36 | Possession | 26:24 |
Costliest call
Q4 10:05 WAKE go for it on 4th & 15 at LOU 29. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:14WAKETrey Boll 5 Yd pass from Mitch Griffis (Zach Murphy Kick)21–48
- Q3 0:00LOUQuincy Riley 90 Yd Interception Return (James Turner Kick)14–48
- Q3 3:12LOUJaelin Carter 28 Yd pass from Braden Smith (James Turner Kick)14–41
- Q3 4:09LOUMalik Cunningham 9 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)14–34
- Q3 6:04LOUTiyon Evans 52 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)14–27
- Q3 14:13LOUKei'Trel Clark 46 Yd Interception Return (James Turner Kick)14–20
- Q2 5:45WAKEJahmal Banks 16 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Matthew Dennis Kick)14–13
- Q2 11:15WAKEJustice Ellison 3 Yd Run (Matthew Dennis Kick)7–13
- Q2 14:27LOUMalik Cunningham 1 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)0–13
- Q1 5:43LOUJames Turner 39 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 11:08LOUJames Turner 29 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LOU Elo 1626, WAKE Elo 1776 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LOU +3.6 (42% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#24 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #95 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds · #11 of 62 in 2022 by biggest poll gap.
The 2022 upset archive →Louisville leads 7–3 · 30% have been one-possession games
| WAKE | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.8 (#51) | CORE overall | +13.6 (#20) |
| +7 / +2 | offense / defense | +4 / -10 |
| 2.88 | points / drive | 2.13 |
| 2.31 | allowed / drive | 1.48 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +9 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →