Michigan vs. Ohio State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MICHTeam statsOSU
- Q4 3:19MICHDonovan Edwards 85 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)45–23
- Q4 7:11MICHDonovan Edwards 75 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)38–23
- Q4 7:23OSUNoah Ruggles 27 Yd Field Goal 31–23
- Q4 13:10MICHJ.J. McCarthy 3 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)31–20
- Q3 11:56MICHColston Loveland 45 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Jake Moody Kick)24–20
- Q2 3:49OSUMarvin Harrison Jr. 42 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Noah Ruggles Kick)17–20
- Q2 5:24MICHCornelius Johnson 75 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Jake Moody Kick)17–13
- Q2 5:36OSUNoah Ruggles 47 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 7:26MICHCornelius Johnson 69 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Jake Moody Kick)10–10
- Q1 1:19OSUNoah Ruggles 32 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q1 6:07MICHJake Moody 49 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 10:02OSUEmeka Egbuka 4 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Noah Ruggles Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MICH lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassJ.J. McCarthy 12/24, 263 YDS, 3 TD
- RushDonovan Edwards 22 CAR, 216 YDS, 2 TD
- RecCornelius Johnson 4 REC, 160 YDS, 2 TD
- PassC.J. Stroud 31/48, 349 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushChip Trayanum 14 CAR, 83 YDS
- RecEmeka Egbuka 9 REC, 125 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMICH up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 5:24MICH +26%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 75 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)
- Q3 11:56MICH +25%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 45 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)
- Q4 13:10MICH +24%
J.J. McCarthy run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)
- Q2 3:49OSU +22%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 42 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)
- Q2 7:26MICH +19%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 69 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)
- Q4 14:03MICH +16%
McCarthy, J.J. pass incomplete to Bell, Ronnie, PENALTY OHIOST pass interference (Hickman, Ronnie) 12 yards to the OHIOST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN
FAQ
What was the final score of Michigan vs. Ohio State?
Michigan 45, Ohio State 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MICH | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 530 | Total yards | 492 |
| 278 | Passing yards | 349 |
| 252 | Rushing yards | 143 |
| 16 | First downs | 23 |
| 7-16 | 3rd down | 5-16 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 13/25 | Comp/Att | 31/48 |
| 11.1 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 7.2 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-30 | Penalties | 9-91 |
| 28:14 | Possession | 31:46 |
Costliest call
Q2 2:18 MICH punt on 4th & 1 at MICH 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:19MICHDonovan Edwards 85 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)45–23
- Q4 7:11MICHDonovan Edwards 75 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)38–23
- Q4 7:23OSUNoah Ruggles 27 Yd Field Goal 31–23
- Q4 13:10MICHJ.J. McCarthy 3 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)31–20
- Q3 11:56MICHColston Loveland 45 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Jake Moody Kick)24–20
- Q2 3:49OSUMarvin Harrison Jr. 42 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Noah Ruggles Kick)17–20
- Q2 5:24MICHCornelius Johnson 75 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Jake Moody Kick)17–13
- Q2 5:36OSUNoah Ruggles 47 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 7:26MICHCornelius Johnson 69 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Jake Moody Kick)10–10
- Q1 1:19OSUNoah Ruggles 32 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q1 6:07MICHJake Moody 49 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 10:02OSUEmeka Egbuka 4 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Noah Ruggles Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OSU Elo 2177, MICH Elo 2075 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OSU -6.5 (68% to win) — 2.5 points clear of MICH's market line of -9. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#19 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #64 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds · #62 of 62 in 2022 by biggest poll gap.
The 2022 upset archive →Michigan leads 62–53–6 · 39% have been one-possession games
| MICH | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +30.2 (#4) | CORE overall | +33.7 (#2) |
| +15 / -15 | offense / defense | +23 / -11 |
| 3.25 | points / drive | 3.51 |
| 1.16 | allowed / drive | 1.63 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| -4 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →