Iowa vs. Purdue: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
IOWATeam statsPUR
- Q3 14:43IOWAKaleb Johnson 75 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)24–3
- Q2 1:40PURMitchell Fineran 34 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 6:11IOWADrew Stevens 26 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q2 12:53IOWANico Ragaini 29 Yd pass from Spencer Petras (Drew Stevens Kick)14–0
- Q2 14:23IOWASam LaPorta 16 Yd pass from Spencer Petras (Drew Stevens Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassSpencer Petras 13/23, 192 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKaleb Johnson 22 CAR, 200 YDS, 1 TD
- RecSam LaPorta 3 REC, 71 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAidan O'Connell 20/43, 168 YDS, 2 INT
- RushDevin Mockobee 14 CAR, 65 YDS
- RecCharlie Jones 11 REC, 104 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsIOWA up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 14:23IOWA +20%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 16 yds for a TD, (Drew Stevens KICK)
- Q2 12:53IOWA +17%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 29 yds for a TD, (Drew Stevens KICK)
- Q3 14:43IOWA +8%
Kaleb Johnson run for 75 yds for a TD, (Drew Stevens KICK)
- Q2 6:11IOWA +7%
Drew Stevens 26 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 0:48IOWA +5%
Tory Taylor punt for 66 yds for a touchback
FAQ
What was the final score of Iowa vs. Purdue?
Iowa 24, Purdue 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked PUR, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| IOWA | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| 376 | Total yards | 255 |
| 192 | Passing yards | 168 |
| 184 | Rushing yards | 87 |
| 15 | First downs | 17 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 2-16 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-5 |
| 13/23 | Comp/Att | 20/43 |
| 8.3 | Yards per pass | 3.9 |
| 5.3 | Yards per rush | 2.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-60 | Penalties | 4-31 |
| 28:02 | Possession | 31:58 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:48 IOWA punt on 4th & 1 at IOWA 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 14:43IOWAKaleb Johnson 75 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)24–3
- Q2 1:40PURMitchell Fineran 34 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 6:11IOWADrew Stevens 26 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q2 12:53IOWANico Ragaini 29 Yd pass from Spencer Petras (Drew Stevens Kick)14–0
- Q2 14:23IOWASam LaPorta 16 Yd pass from Spencer Petras (Drew Stevens Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PUR Elo 1653, IOWA Elo 1648 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PUR -2.6 (58% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#47 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #91 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →Purdue leads 50–41–3 · Iowa has won 2 straight · 34% have been one-possession games
| IOWA | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.1 (#31) | CORE overall | +4.9 (#47) |
| -11 / -21 | offense / defense | +2 / -2 |
| 1.30 | points / drive | 1.95 |
| 0.88 | allowed / drive | 2.24 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →