Colorado State vs. Fresno State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CSUTeam statsFRES
- Q4 0:41CSUTrey McBride 20 Yd pass from Patrick O'Brien (Robert Liss Kick)17–38
- Q4 7:58FRESJalen Cropper 6 Yd pass from Jake Haener (Cesar Silva Kick)10–38
- Q3 2:43FRESRonnie Rivers 1 Yd Run (Cesar Silva Kick)10–31
- Q2 1:03FRESJordan Mims 15 Yd pass from Jake Haener (Cesar Silva Kick)10–24
- Q2 6:32FRESRonnie Rivers 32 Yd Run (Cesar Silva Kick)10–17
- Q2 11:00FRESCesar Silva 34 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 13:57CSUMarcus McElroy Jr. 15 Yd Run (Robert Liss Kick)10–7
- Q1 4:07CSURobert Liss 24 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 6:44FRESRonnie Rivers 13 Yd pass from Jake Haener (Cesar Silva Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassTodd Centeio 10/23, 141 YDS
- RushTodd Centeio 13 CAR, 80 YDS
- RecTrey McBride 8 REC, 130 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJake Haener 22/32, 311 YDS, 3 TD
- RushRonnie Rivers 23 CAR, 95 YDS, 2 TD
- RecKeric Wheatfall 5 REC, 87 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFRES up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 13:57CSU +20%
Marcus Mcelroy Jr. run for 15 yds for a TD, (Robert Liss KICK)
- Q2 6:32FRES +19%
Ronnie Rivers run for 32 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)
- Q1 6:44FRES +17%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 13 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)
- Q2 1:03FRES +13%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 15 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)
- Q2 11:00FRES +9%
Cesar Silva 34 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 4:07CSU +7%
Robert Liss 24 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Colorado State vs. Fresno State?
Colorado State 17, Fresno State 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FRES) was correct.
| CSU | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| 372 | Total yards | 432 |
| 223 | Passing yards | 348 |
| 149 | Rushing yards | 84 |
| 21 | First downs | 24 |
| 4-15 | 3rd down | 10-18 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 17/33 | Comp/Att | 25/36 |
| 6.8 | Yards per pass | 9.7 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 2.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-61 | Penalties | 5-50 |
| 24:10 | Possession | 35:50 |
Costliest call
Q3 14:03 CSU punt on 4th & 2 at CSU 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.94 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:41CSUTrey McBride 20 Yd pass from Patrick O'Brien (Robert Liss Kick)17–38
- Q4 7:58FRESJalen Cropper 6 Yd pass from Jake Haener (Cesar Silva Kick)10–38
- Q3 2:43FRESRonnie Rivers 1 Yd Run (Cesar Silva Kick)10–31
- Q2 1:03FRESJordan Mims 15 Yd pass from Jake Haener (Cesar Silva Kick)10–24
- Q2 6:32FRESRonnie Rivers 32 Yd Run (Cesar Silva Kick)10–17
- Q2 11:00FRESCesar Silva 34 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 13:57CSUMarcus McElroy Jr. 15 Yd Run (Robert Liss Kick)10–7
- Q1 4:07CSURobert Liss 24 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 6:44FRESRonnie Rivers 13 Yd pass from Jake Haener (Cesar Silva Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FRES Elo 1446, CSU Elo 1409 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FRES -3.9 (61% to win) — 6.4 points clear of FRES's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#36 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #88 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →Colorado State leads 11–7 · 39% have been one-possession games
| CSU | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.4 (#70) | CORE overall | -5.0 (#84) |
| -6 / -4 | offense / defense | -0 / +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →