Arkansas State vs. Kansas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARSTTeam statsKSU
- Q4 0:38ARSTJonathan Adams Jr. 17 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe Kick)35–31
- Q4 2:30KSUBlake Lynch 35 Yd Field Goal 28–31
- Q4 6:35KSUHarry Trotter 5 Yd Run (Blake Lynch Kick)28–28
- Q4 11:49ARSTJonathan Adams Jr. 5 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Blake Grupe Kick)28–21
- Q3 2:28ARSTGiles Amos 8 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe Kick)21–21
- Q2 6:50ARSTRoshauud Paul 48 Yd pass from Jeff Foreman (Blake Grupe Kick)14–21
- Q2 8:41KSUBriley Moore 7 Yd pass from Skylar Thompson (Blake Lynch Kick)7–21
- Q2 13:29KSUDeuce Vaughn 3 Yd Run (Blake Lynch Kick)7–14
- Q1 9:58ARSTJonathan Adams Jr. 2 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Blake Grupe Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:24KSUPhillip Brooks 17 Yd pass from Skylar Thompson (Blake Lynch Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- KSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ARST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.0 vs 3rd & 6.1
- KSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 32% success rate
- PassLogan Bonner 17/28, 204 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJamal Jones 16 CAR, 95 YDS
- RecJonathan Adams 8 REC, 98 YDS, 3 TD
- PassSkylar Thompson 17/29, 259 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDeuce Vaughn 12 CAR, 47 YDS, 1 TD
- RecChabastin Taylor 4 REC, 98 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:38ARST +72%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 17 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
- Q4 6:35KSU +43%
Harry Trotter run for 5 yds for a TD (Blake Lynch KICK)
- Q4 11:49ARST +38%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 5 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
- Q3 2:28ARST +26%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Giles Amos for 8 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
- Q4 2:30KSU +25%
Blake Lynch 35 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 5:44KSU +21%
Skylar Thompson pass incomplete to Chabastin Taylor
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas State vs. Kansas State?
Arkansas State 35, Kansas State 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked KSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ARST | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 489 | Total yards | 374 |
| 330 | Passing yards | 283 |
| 159 | Rushing yards | 91 |
| 26 | First downs | 21 |
| 6-13 | 3rd down | 1-11 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 25/38 | Comp/Att | 18/30 |
| 8.7 | Yards per pass | 9.4 |
| 4.8 | Yards per rush | 2.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-58 | Penalties | 8-85 |
| 25:44 | Possession | 34:16 |
Costliest call
Q3 14:56 KSU punt on 4th & 9 at ARST 41. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.30 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:38ARSTJonathan Adams Jr. 17 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe Kick)35–31
- Q4 2:30KSUBlake Lynch 35 Yd Field Goal 28–31
- Q4 6:35KSUHarry Trotter 5 Yd Run (Blake Lynch Kick)28–28
- Q4 11:49ARSTJonathan Adams Jr. 5 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Blake Grupe Kick)28–21
- Q3 2:28ARSTGiles Amos 8 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe Kick)21–21
- Q2 6:50ARSTRoshauud Paul 48 Yd pass from Jeff Foreman (Blake Grupe Kick)14–21
- Q2 8:41KSUBriley Moore 7 Yd pass from Skylar Thompson (Blake Lynch Kick)7–21
- Q2 13:29KSUDeuce Vaughn 3 Yd Run (Blake Lynch Kick)7–14
- Q1 9:58ARSTJonathan Adams Jr. 2 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Blake Grupe Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:24KSUPhillip Brooks 17 Yd pass from Skylar Thompson (Blake Lynch Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KSU Elo 1632, ARST Elo 1427 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KSU -10.6 (77% to win) — 4.4 points clear of ARST's market line of -15. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#60 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #15 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →| ARST | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.6 (#85) | CORE overall | -1.9 (#74) |
| +2 / +8 | offense / defense | +1 / +3 |
| 2.50 | points / drive | 2.01 |
| 2.95 | allowed / drive | 2.35 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 38% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →