Boston College vs. Syracuse: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BCTeam statsSYR
- Q4 13:52BCAJ Dillon 2 Yd Run (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)58–27
- Q3 3:33SYRTrishton Jackson 85 Yd pass from Tommy DeVito (Andre Szmyt Kick)51–27
- Q3 8:54BCAJ Dillon 5 Yd Run (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)51–20
- Q2 0:26BCIsaiah Miranda 4 Yd pass from Dennis Grosel (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)44–20
- Q2 3:47BCDavid Bailey 74 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)37–20
- Q2 5:31BCAJ Dillon 51 Yd Run (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)31–20
- Q2 7:27BCZay Flowers 50 Yd pass from Dennis Grosel (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)24–20
- Q2 9:29SYRAndre Szmyt 30 Yd Field Goal 17–20
- Q2 14:51BCKobay White 64 Yd pass from Dennis Grosel (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)17–17
- Q1 0:29SYRTrishton Jackson 26 Yd pass from Tommy DeVito (Andre Szmyt Kick)10–17
- Q1 1:43SYRAndre Szmyt 47 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q1 6:19BCDavid Bailey 29 Yd Run (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)10–7
- Q1 8:07SYRAaron Hackett 9 Yd pass from Tommy DeVito (Andre Szmyt Kick)3–7
- Q1 10:37BCAaron Boumerhi 21 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SYR played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and BC did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.0 vs 3rd & 4.2
- PassDennis Grosel 8/10, 195 YDS, 3 TD
- RushAJ Dillon 35 CAR, 242 YDS, 3 TD
- RecKobay White 2 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTommy DeVito 25/36, 289 YDS, 3 TD
- RushTommy DeVito 16 CAR, 61 YDS
- RecTrishton Jackson 8 REC, 148 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBC up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 7:27BC +22%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Zay Flowers for 50 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)
- Q2 14:51BC +21%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Kobay White for 64 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)
- Q2 5:31BC +19%
AJ Dillon run for 51 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)
- Q1 0:29SYR +19%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 26 yds for a TD (Andre Szmyt KICK)
- Q1 6:19BC +19%
David Bailey run for 29 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)
- Q1 8:07SYR +18%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Aaron Hackett for 9 yds for a TD (Andre Szmyt KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Boston College vs. Syracuse?
Boston College 58, Syracuse 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SYR, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BC | SYR | |
|---|---|---|
| 691 | Total yards | 448 |
| 195 | Passing yards | 289 |
| 496 | Rushing yards | 159 |
| 29 | First downs | 20 |
| 7-12 | 3rd down | 5-17 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-5 |
| 8/10 | Comp/Att | 25/36 |
| 19.5 | Yards per pass | 8.0 |
| 7.6 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-25 | Penalties | 6-53 |
| 29:51 | Possession | 30:09 |
Costliest call
Q4 13:52 SYR go for it on 4th & 13 at BC 24. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.01 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 13:52BCAJ Dillon 2 Yd Run (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)58–27
- Q3 3:33SYRTrishton Jackson 85 Yd pass from Tommy DeVito (Andre Szmyt Kick)51–27
- Q3 8:54BCAJ Dillon 5 Yd Run (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)51–20
- Q2 0:26BCIsaiah Miranda 4 Yd pass from Dennis Grosel (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)44–20
- Q2 3:47BCDavid Bailey 74 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)37–20
- Q2 5:31BCAJ Dillon 51 Yd Run (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)31–20
- Q2 7:27BCZay Flowers 50 Yd pass from Dennis Grosel (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)24–20
- Q2 9:29SYRAndre Szmyt 30 Yd Field Goal 17–20
- Q2 14:51BCKobay White 64 Yd pass from Dennis Grosel (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)17–17
- Q1 0:29SYRTrishton Jackson 26 Yd pass from Tommy DeVito (Andre Szmyt Kick)10–17
- Q1 1:43SYRAndre Szmyt 47 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q1 6:19BCDavid Bailey 29 Yd Run (Aaron Boumerhi Kick)10–7
- Q1 8:07SYRAaron Hackett 9 Yd pass from Tommy DeVito (Andre Szmyt Kick)3–7
- Q1 10:37BCAaron Boumerhi 21 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SYR Elo 1459, BC Elo 1490 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SYR -1.2 (54% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#10 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #90 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →Syracuse leads 34–25 · Boston College has won 3 straight · 29% have been one-possession games
| BC | SYR | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.8 (#68) | CORE overall | -15.7 (#111) |
| +8 / +10 | offense / defense | -8 / +7 |
| 2.29 | points / drive | 2.01 |
| 2.71 | allowed / drive | 2.50 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| -15 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →