Duke vs. Virginia Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
DUKETeam statsVT
- Q4 3:37DUKEChris Katrenick 9 Yd Run (AJ Reed Kick)45–10
- Q4 12:25DUKEDeon Jackson 32 Yd Run (AJ Reed Kick)38–10
- Q3 2:31VTDamon Hazelton 72 Yd pass from Ryan Willis (Brian Johnson Kick)31–10
- Q3 3:30DUKEQuentin Harris 42 Yd Run (AJ Reed Kick)31–3
- Q3 5:56DUKEAJ Reed 31 Yd Field Goal 24–3
- Q2 0:39DUKEDeon Jackson 25 Yd pass from Jalon Calhoun (AJ Reed Kick)21–3
- Q2 6:43DUKENoah Gray 1 Yd pass from Quentin Harris (AJ Reed Kick)14–3
- Q2 11:20DUKENoah Gray 16 Yd pass from Quentin Harris (AJ Reed Kick)7–3
- Q1 0:27VTBrian Johnson 20 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassQuentin Harris 20/27, 163 YDS, 2 TD
- RushQuentin Harris 17 CAR, 100 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMataeo Durant 3 REC, 53 YDS
- PassRyan Willis 7/18, 112 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDeshawn McClease 17 CAR, 102 YDS
- RecDamon Hazelton 1 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsDUKE up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 11:20DUKE +23%
Noah Gray 16 Yd pass from Quentin Harris (AJ Reed Kick)
- Q2 6:43DUKE +20%
Noah Gray 1 Yd pass from Quentin Harris (AJ Reed Kick)
- Q2 0:39DUKE +12%
Deon Jackson 25 Yd pass from Jalon Calhoun (AJ Reed Kick)
- Q1 0:27VT +8%
Brian Johnson 20 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of Duke vs. Virginia Tech?
Duke 45, Virginia Tech 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked VT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| DUKE | VT | |
|---|---|---|
| 422 | Total yards | 259 |
| 188 | Passing yards | 120 |
| 234 | Rushing yards | 139 |
| 24 | First downs | 14 |
| 7-14 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 21/28 | Comp/Att | 8/20 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 6.0 |
| 5.7 | Yards per rush | 3.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 8-62 | Penalties | 5-52 |
| 32:14 | Possession | 27:46 |
Costliest call
Q1 0:27 VT field goal on 4th & 2 at DUKE 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:37DUKEChris Katrenick 9 Yd Run (AJ Reed Kick)45–10
- Q4 12:25DUKEDeon Jackson 32 Yd Run (AJ Reed Kick)38–10
- Q3 2:31VTDamon Hazelton 72 Yd pass from Ryan Willis (Brian Johnson Kick)31–10
- Q3 3:30DUKEQuentin Harris 42 Yd Run (AJ Reed Kick)31–3
- Q3 5:56DUKEAJ Reed 31 Yd Field Goal 24–3
- Q2 0:39DUKEDeon Jackson 25 Yd pass from Jalon Calhoun (AJ Reed Kick)21–3
- Q2 6:43DUKENoah Gray 1 Yd pass from Quentin Harris (AJ Reed Kick)14–3
- Q2 11:20DUKENoah Gray 16 Yd pass from Quentin Harris (AJ Reed Kick)7–3
- Q1 0:27VTBrian Johnson 20 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (VT Elo 1519, DUKE Elo 1525 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects VT -2.2 (57% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#7 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #95 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →Virginia Tech leads 19–12 · Duke has won 2 straight · 35% have been one-possession games
| DUKE | VT | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.4 (#103) | CORE overall | +5.4 (#43) |
| -14 / -3 | offense / defense | +2 / -4 |
| 1.54 | points / drive | 2.40 |
| 2.22 | allowed / drive | 1.89 |
| 38% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →