Navy vs. Air Force: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NAVYTeam statsAF
- Q4 10:16AFDonald Hammond III 2 Yd Run (Jake Koehnke Kick)7–35
- Q3 0:57AFDonald Hammond III 1 Yd Run (Jake Koehnke Kick)7–28
- Q3 11:59AFDonald Hammond III 5 Yd Run (Jake Koehnke Kick)7–21
- Q2 5:18AFJoseph Saucier 48 Yd Run (Jake Koehnke Kick)7–14
- Q2 7:04AFRonald Cleveland 61 Yd pass from Donald Hammond III (Jake Koehnke Kick)7–7
- Q2 12:38NAVYGarret Lewis 2 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NAVY played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and AF did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.6 vs 3rd & 4.8
- PassMalcolm Perry 2/6, 36 YDS
- RushMalcolm Perry 19 CAR, 54 YDS
- RecMychal Cooper 1 REC, 27 YDS
- PassDonald Hammond III 6/10, 142 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJoseph Saucier 3 CAR, 62 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRonald Cleveland 2 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAF up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 5:18AF +22%
Joseph Saucier run for 48 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)
- Q2 7:04AF +20%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 61 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)
- Q2 12:38NAVY +19%
Garret Lewis run for 2 yds for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK)
- Q3 11:59AF +18%
Donald Hammond III run for 5 yds for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)
- Q3 0:57AF +8%
Donald Hammond III run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Koehnke KICK)
- Q2 1:25AF +6%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 35
FAQ
What was the final score of Navy vs. Air Force?
Navy 7, Air Force 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NAVY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| NAVY | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| 178 | Total yards | 399 |
| 49 | Passing yards | 142 |
| 129 | Rushing yards | 257 |
| 9 | First downs | 17 |
| 2-13 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 3/12 | Comp/Att | 6/10 |
| 4.1 | Yards per pass | 14.2 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-40 | Penalties | 3-32 |
| 27:03 | Possession | 32:57 |
Costliest call
Q2 10:24 AF punt on 4th & 4 at NAVY 37. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.12 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:16AFDonald Hammond III 2 Yd Run (Jake Koehnke Kick)7–35
- Q3 0:57AFDonald Hammond III 1 Yd Run (Jake Koehnke Kick)7–28
- Q3 11:59AFDonald Hammond III 5 Yd Run (Jake Koehnke Kick)7–21
- Q2 5:18AFJoseph Saucier 48 Yd Run (Jake Koehnke Kick)7–14
- Q2 7:04AFRonald Cleveland 61 Yd pass from Donald Hammond III (Jake Koehnke Kick)7–7
- Q2 12:38NAVYGarret Lewis 2 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AF Elo 1422, NAVY Elo 1550 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AF +2.7 (44% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#29 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #101 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →Air Force leads 34–24 · Navy has won 2 straight · 47% have been one-possession games
| NAVY | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.9 (#111) | CORE overall | -0.8 (#72) |
| -4 / +13 | offense / defense | +7 / +8 |
| 2.07 | points / drive | 2.56 |
| 3.22 | allowed / drive | 2.39 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -35 | pass over expected | -25 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →