Arizona vs. Utah: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARIZTeam statsUTAH
- Q4 9:58ARIZTra'Mayne Bondurant 39 Yd Interception Return (Casey Skowron Kick)42–10
- Q4 10:40ARIZNick Wilson 19 Yd Run (Casey Skowron Kick)35–10
- Q4 11:50ARIZNick Wilson 75 Yd Run (Casey Skowron Kick)28–10
- Q3 5:14UTAHAndy Phillips 28 Yd Field Goal 21–10
- Q2 0:07UTAHWestlee Tonga 11 Yd pass from Travis Wilson (Andy Phillips Kick)21–7
- Q2 1:17ARIZDan Pettinato 31 Yd Fumble Return (Casey Skowron Kick)21–0
- Q2 4:12ARIZNick Wilson 17 Yd Run (Casey Skowron Kick)14–0
- Q1 3:23ARIZAnu Solomon 11 Yd Run (Casey Skowron Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ARIZ played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UTAH did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.0 vs 3rd & 5.6
- PassAnu Solomon 8/17, 158 YDS
- RushNick Wilson 20 CAR, 218 YDS, 3 TD
- RecSamajie Grant 4 REC, 88 YDS
- PassTravis Wilson 16/29, 143 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushDevontae Booker 23 CAR, 142 YDS
- RecWestlee Tonga 4 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARIZ up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 3:23ARIZ +18%
Anu Solomon run for 11 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)
- Q2 4:12ARIZ +15%
Nick Wilson run for 17 yds for a TD, (Casey Skowron KICK)
- Q2 1:17ARIZ +9%
Bubba Poole run for no gain to the Utah 39, fumbled, forced Tra'Mayne Bondurant, recovered by Ariz Dan Pettinato, Dan Pettinato return for 31 yds, for a TD (Casey Skow…
- Q2 0:07UTAH +8%
Travis Wilson pass complete to Westlee Tonga for 11 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)
- Q4 13:30ARIZ +6%
Nick Wilson run for 6 yds to the Ariz 17 for a 1ST down
- Q3 3:52ARIZ +6%
Jesse Scroggins pass incomplete to Cayleb Jones
FAQ
What was the final score of Arizona vs. Utah?
Arizona 42, Utah 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ARIZ) was correct.
| ARIZ | UTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| 520 | Total yards | 384 |
| 222 | Passing yards | 171 |
| 298 | Rushing yards | 213 |
| 21 | First downs | 20 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 6-19 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 11/22 | Comp/Att | 18/35 |
| 10.1 | Yards per pass | 4.9 |
| 6.3 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 6-57 | Penalties | 3-26 |
| 27:32 | Possession | 32:16 |
Costliest call
Q1 13:44 ARIZ punt on 4th & 1 at ARIZ 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:58ARIZTra'Mayne Bondurant 39 Yd Interception Return (Casey Skowron Kick)42–10
- Q4 10:40ARIZNick Wilson 19 Yd Run (Casey Skowron Kick)35–10
- Q4 11:50ARIZNick Wilson 75 Yd Run (Casey Skowron Kick)28–10
- Q3 5:14UTAHAndy Phillips 28 Yd Field Goal 21–10
- Q2 0:07UTAHWestlee Tonga 11 Yd pass from Travis Wilson (Andy Phillips Kick)21–7
- Q2 1:17ARIZDan Pettinato 31 Yd Fumble Return (Casey Skowron Kick)21–0
- Q2 4:12ARIZNick Wilson 17 Yd Run (Casey Skowron Kick)14–0
- Q1 3:23ARIZAnu Solomon 11 Yd Run (Casey Skowron Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UTAH Elo 1635, ARIZ Elo 1726 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UTAH +1.2 (48% to win) — 5.7 points clear of ARIZ's market line of -4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#12 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #78 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →Utah leads 26–21–2 · Arizona has won 2 straight · 35% have been one-possession games
| ARIZ | UTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.23 | points / drive | 1.94 |
| 1.82 | allowed / drive | 1.55 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 32% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →