Wyoming vs. Fresno State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WYOTeam statsFRES
- Q4 2:00FRESJosiah Freeman 13 Yd pass from Carson Conklin (Dylan Lynch Kick)3–24
- Q4 12:58FRESJohnathan Arceneaux 58 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)3–17
- Q2 0:26FRESDylan Lynch 40 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q1 6:39WYOErik Sandvik 41 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 9:34FRESBryson Donelson 12 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassKaden Anderson 6/23, 64 YDS, 1 INT
- RushSamuel Harris 12 CAR, 102 YDS
- RecChris Durr Jr. 2 REC, 37 YDS
- PassCarson Conklin 12/27, 95 YDS, 1 TD
- RushRayshon Luke 16 CAR, 92 YDS
- RecJosiah Freeman 2 REC, 25 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFRES up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 12:58FRES +8%
#0 J.Arceneaux rush right for 58 yards gain to the WYO00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 0:26FRES +8%
#46 D.Lynch field goal attempt from 40 yards GOOD
- Q3 2:27FRES +6%
#46 D.Lynch field goal attempt from 27 yards NO GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Wyoming vs. Fresno State?
Wyoming 3, Fresno State 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FRES) was correct.
| WYO | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| 184 | Total yards | 311 |
| 77 | Passing yards | 95 |
| 107 | Rushing yards | 216 |
| 9 | First downs | 22 |
| 3-15 | 3rd down | 5-16 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 8/28 | Comp/Att | 12/27 |
| 2.8 | Yards per pass | 3.5 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-93 | Penalties | 3-20 |
| 25:55 | Possession | 34:05 |
Costliest call
Q3 0:06 FRES punt on 4th & 8 at WYO 36. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.75 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:00FRESJosiah Freeman 13 Yd pass from Carson Conklin (Dylan Lynch Kick)3–24
- Q4 12:58FRESJohnathan Arceneaux 58 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)3–17
- Q2 0:26FRESDylan Lynch 40 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q1 6:39WYOErik Sandvik 41 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 9:34FRESBryson Donelson 12 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FRES Elo 1468, WYO Elo 1390 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FRES -5.5 (65% to win) — 2.5 points clear of FRES's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesFresno State leads 10–6 · 25% have been one-possession games
| WYO | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.3 (#111) | CORE overall | -3.4 (#73) |
| -18 / -3 | offense / defense | -7 / -4 |
| 1.07 | points / drive | 1.67 |
| 1.65 | allowed / drive | 1.49 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →