Valley Children's StadiumConference gameClosing line: FRES -3 · FRES covered
Sun, Nov 16, 3:30 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WYO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| FRES | 7 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 24 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (FRES Elo 1468, WYO Elo 1390) plus home-field advantage. That projects FRES -5.5 (66% to win) — 2.5 points of value on FRES versus the market line of -3.
FRES up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Wyoming 3, Fresno State 24.
Yes — the model's pick (FRES) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had FRES pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(13:05) #0 J.Arceneaux rush right for 58 yards gain to the WYO00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:58, 1ST DOWN #46 D.Lynch kick attempt good (H: #41 N.Verdugo, LS: #52 W.Brown)
(00:48) Shotgun #17 C.Conklin pass incomplete short right to #84 E.Avit thrown to WYO25 broken up by #94 B.Florentine, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY WYO Holding 10 yards from WYO35 to WYO25, 1ST DOWN
Josiah Freeman 13 Yd pass from Carson Conklin (Dylan Lynch Kick)
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