Joe Aillet StadiumConference gameClosing line: LT -5 · WKU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WKU | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 28 |
| LT | 7 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 27 |
Team stats
WKUthis game · better side highlightedLT
340
Total yards
449227
Passing yards
340113
Rushing yards
10921
First downs
24Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
LT 1381
WKU 1352
Projected spread
LT -3.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
LT
60% to win
Market spread
LT -5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
60%
LT · market 65%
Our model blends Elo ratings (LT Elo 1381, WKU Elo 1352) plus home-field advantage. That projects LT -3.6 (60% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
LT (top)WKU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: LT 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- WKU pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. LT pass defense (0.14 allowed) — edge WKU.
- WKU rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. LT rush defense (0.02 allowed) — edge WKU.
- LT rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. WKU rush defense (0.09 allowed) — edge LT.
Drive-by-drive
WKU 6/12 scoring drives← own end zone →LT 4/11 scoring drives
WKUFG10 pl, 46 yds· own 25Q1
LTTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
WKUTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WKU up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
77%
WKU went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Kentucky vs. Louisiana Tech?
Western Kentucky 28, Louisiana Tech 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had LT pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.