Western Kentucky vs. Louisiana Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WKUTeam statsLT
- OT 0:00WKUG. Hart III run for 4 yds, for a TD R. Tisdale Jr. pass to K.D. Hutchinson GOOD for Two-Point Conversion R. Tisdale Jr. pass to K.D. HutchinsonGOOD fo28–27
- OT 0:00LTA. Burnette run for 2 yds, for a TD (J. Chance KICK)20–27
- Q4 6:20LTJohn Hoyet Chance 24 Yd Field Goal 20–20
- Q4 14:49LTJohn Hoyet Chance 24 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q3 14:45LTJ. Cassidy kickoff for 57 yds, C. Thevenin returns for 7 yds, lateral to D. Gandy returns for 85 yds for a TD (J. Chance KICK)20–14
- Q2 2:28WKUJack Cassidy 53 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 10:41WKUGeorge Hart III 1 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)17–7
- Q1 1:09WKULa'Vell Wright 15 Yd pass from Rodney Tisdale Jr. (John Cannon Kick)10–7
- Q1 6:46LTTre Averhart 6 Yd pass from Blake Baker (John Hoyet Chance Kick)3–7
- Q1 10:26WKUJohn Cannon 47 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- WKU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 40% success rate
- PassRodney Tisdale Jr. 21/34, 227 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushRodney Tisdale Jr. 12 CAR, 73 YDS
- RecK.D. Hutchinson 6 REC, 77 YDS
- PassBlake Baker 31/45, 340 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushBlake Baker 10 CAR, 49 YDS
- RecMarlion Jackson 6 REC, 103 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWKU up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- OT 0:00WKU +80%
Shotgun #9 G.Hart III rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LAT00 TOUCHDOWN #16 R.Tisdale Jr. pass attempt Successful #2 K.Hutchinson pass attempt Successful #3 M.Barry…
- Q4 1:11LT +47%
Shotgun #5 B.Baker rush right for 7 yards gain to the LAT33, out of bounds at LAT33, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 1:55WKU +33%
Shotgun #9 G.Hart III rush left for 0 yards to the LAT29 (#22 J.Mayfield; #90 J.Madkins)
- OT 0:00LT +32%
Shotgun #0 A.Burnette rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WKU00 TOUCHDOWN
- OT 0:00WKU +31%
Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short middle to #1 D.Gandy caught at WKU25, for 3 yards to the WKU22 (#7 J.Lewis)
- Q2 10:41WKU +23%
#9 G.Hart III rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LAT00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Kentucky vs. Louisiana Tech?
Western Kentucky 28, Louisiana Tech 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WKU | LT | |
|---|---|---|
| 340 | Total yards | 449 |
| 227 | Passing yards | 340 |
| 113 | Rushing yards | 109 |
| 21 | First downs | 24 |
| 7-15 | 3rd down | 10-19 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 21/34 | Comp/Att | 31/46 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 7.4 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 2.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-36 | Penalties | 9-80 |
| 31:20 | Possession | 28:40 |
Costliest call
Q4 0:05 LT field goal on 4th & 4 at WKU 39. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00WKUG. Hart III run for 4 yds, for a TD R. Tisdale Jr. pass to K.D. Hutchinson GOOD for Two-Point Conversion R. Tisdale Jr. pass to K.D. HutchinsonGOOD fo28–27
- OT 0:00LTA. Burnette run for 2 yds, for a TD (J. Chance KICK)20–27
- Q4 6:20LTJohn Hoyet Chance 24 Yd Field Goal 20–20
- Q4 14:49LTJohn Hoyet Chance 24 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q3 14:45LTJ. Cassidy kickoff for 57 yds, C. Thevenin returns for 7 yds, lateral to D. Gandy returns for 85 yds for a TD (J. Chance KICK)20–14
- Q2 2:28WKUJack Cassidy 53 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 10:41WKUGeorge Hart III 1 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)17–7
- Q1 1:09WKULa'Vell Wright 15 Yd pass from Rodney Tisdale Jr. (John Cannon Kick)10–7
- Q1 6:46LTTre Averhart 6 Yd pass from Blake Baker (John Hoyet Chance Kick)3–7
- Q1 10:26WKUJohn Cannon 47 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LT Elo 1381, WKU Elo 1352 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LT -3.6 (61% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesWestern Kentucky leads 5–4 · 67% have been one-possession games
| WKU | LT | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.3 (#83) | CORE overall | -2.2 (#70) |
| -6 / +0 | offense / defense | -6 / -4 |
| 2.09 | points / drive | 2.08 |
| 1.79 | allowed / drive | 1.61 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →