West Virginia vs. UCF: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WVUTeam statsUCF
- Q4 1:46WVUDiore Hubbard 1 Yd Run (Kade Hensley PAT failed)13–45
- Q4 4:17UCFDavi Belfort 10 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)7–45
- Q4 9:40UCFNoe Ruelas 51 Yd Field Goal 7–38
- Q3 2:12UCFJaden Nixon 83 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)7–35
- Q3 10:40UCFKeli Lawson 32 Yd Fumble Return (Noe Ruelas Kick)7–28
- Q3 11:53UCFJaden Nixon 12 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)7–21
- Q2 14:19WVUKhalil Wilkins 6 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)7–14
- Q1 4:54UCFChris Domercant 34 Yd pass from Tayven Jackson (Noe Ruelas Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:33UCFChris Domercant 40 Yd pass from Tayven Jackson (Noe Ruelas Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassScotty Fox Jr. 6/17, 47 YDS
- RushKhalil Wilkins 15 CAR, 48 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJustin Smith-Brown 2 REC, 27 YDS
- PassTayven Jackson 23/34, 277 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJaden Nixon 7 CAR, 116 YDS, 2 TD
- RecChris Domercant 5 REC, 89 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUCF up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:46WVU +51%
Diore Hubbard 1 Yd Run (Kade Hensley PAT failed)
- Q4 1:35UCF +40%
Brock Hansel pass complete to Tyler Wrenn for 11 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST down
- Q2 4:53WVU +25%
Anthony Venneri punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Preston Fox at the WVU 8
- Q3 11:53UCF +16%
Jaden Nixon run for 12 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)
- Q1 11:33UCF +12%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Chris Domercant for 40 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)
- Q3 10:40UCF +9%
Keli Lawson 32 Yd Fumble Return (Noe Ruelas Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of West Virginia vs. UCF?
West Virginia 13, UCF 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UCF) was correct.
| WVU | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| 210 | Total yards | 578 |
| 79 | Passing yards | 323 |
| 131 | Rushing yards | 255 |
| 19 | First downs | 21 |
| 4-18 | 3rd down | 5-16 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 11/28 | Comp/Att | 26/40 |
| 2.8 | Yards per pass | 8.1 |
| 2.7 | Yards per rush | 7.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-35 | Penalties | 7-70 |
| 26:53 | Possession | 33:07 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:53 UCF punt on 4th & 2 at WVU 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.99 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:46WVUDiore Hubbard 1 Yd Run (Kade Hensley PAT failed)13–45
- Q4 4:17UCFDavi Belfort 10 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)7–45
- Q4 9:40UCFNoe Ruelas 51 Yd Field Goal 7–38
- Q3 2:12UCFJaden Nixon 83 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)7–35
- Q3 10:40UCFKeli Lawson 32 Yd Fumble Return (Noe Ruelas Kick)7–28
- Q3 11:53UCFJaden Nixon 12 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)7–21
- Q2 14:19WVUKhalil Wilkins 6 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)7–14
- Q1 4:54UCFChris Domercant 34 Yd pass from Tayven Jackson (Noe Ruelas Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:33UCFChris Domercant 40 Yd pass from Tayven Jackson (Noe Ruelas Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UCF Elo 1555, WVU Elo 1342 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UCF -10.9 (77% to win) — 4.4 points clear of UCF's market line of -6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| WVU | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.6 (#98) | CORE overall | -5.0 (#80) |
| -11 / -1 | offense / defense | -6 / -1 |
| 1.51 | points / drive | 1.73 |
| 2.68 | allowed / drive | 2.10 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -8 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →