West Virginia vs. UCF: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Oct 18, 5:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WVU | 0 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| UCF | 14 | 0 | 21 | 10 | 45 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo ratings (UCF Elo 1555, WVU Elo 1342) plus home-field advantage. That projects UCF -10.9 (79% to win) — 4.4 points of value on UCF versus the market line of -6.5.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: UCF · 11 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
Offense
Defense
Key matchups · Pro
- UCF pass offense (0.18 PPA) vs. WVU pass defense (0.33 allowed) — edge WVU.
- WVU rush offense (-0.02 PPA) vs. UCF rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge UCF.
- UCF rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. WVU rush defense (0.02 allowed) — edge UCF.
Drive-by-drive
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
UCF up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of West Virginia vs. UCF?
West Virginia 13, UCF 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UCF) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
Called it — I had UCF pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.