Wake Forest vs. Oregon State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WAKETeam statsORST
- Q4 4:10ORSTDavid Wells Jr. 4 Yd pass from Gabarri Johnson (Caleb Ojeda Kick)39–14
- Q4 11:42WAKEDemond Claiborne 66 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)39–7
- Q4 11:58ORSTCornell Hatcher Jr. 29 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)32–7
- Q3 6:33WAKEChris Barnes 55 Yd pass from Deshawn Purdie (Connor Calvert Kick)32–0
- Q2 0:00WAKEConnor Calvert 43 Yd Field Goal 25–0
- Q2 10:56WAKEChris Barnes 11 Yd pass from Deshawn Purdie (Connor Calvert Kick)22–0
- Q1 3:49WAKEMicah Mays Jr. 52 Yd pass from Deshawn Purdie (Connor Calvert Kick)15–0
- Q1 13:32WAKEChris Barnes 36 Yd pass from Deshawn Purdie (Ty Clark III Run for Two-Point Conversion)8–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- WAKE lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 23% explosive on a 38% success rate
- PassDeshawn Purdie 14/27, 270 YDS, 4 TD
- RushDemond Claiborne 16 CAR, 144 YDS, 1 TD
- RecChris Barnes 3 REC, 102 YDS, 3 TD
- PassMaalik Murphy 13/30, 130 YDS, 1 INT
- RushAnthony Hankerson 22 CAR, 101 YDS
- RecDavid Wells Jr. 6 REC, 58 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWAKE up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 10:56WAKE +7%
Deshawn Purdie pass complete to Chris Barnes for 11 yds for a TD (Connor Calvert KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Wake Forest vs. Oregon State?
Wake Forest 39, Oregon State 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WAKE) was correct.
| WAKE | ORST | |
|---|---|---|
| 468 | Total yards | 309 |
| 270 | Passing yards | 175 |
| 198 | Rushing yards | 134 |
| 17 | First downs | 22 |
| 1-9 | 3rd down | 5-17 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 14/28 | Comp/Att | 19/42 |
| 9.6 | Yards per pass | 4.2 |
| 7.6 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 12-109 | Penalties | 9-70 |
| 24:48 | Possession | 35:12 |
Costliest call
Q3 9:03 WAKE punt on 4th & 2 at ORST 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.40 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:10ORSTDavid Wells Jr. 4 Yd pass from Gabarri Johnson (Caleb Ojeda Kick)39–14
- Q4 11:42WAKEDemond Claiborne 66 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)39–7
- Q4 11:58ORSTCornell Hatcher Jr. 29 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)32–7
- Q3 6:33WAKEChris Barnes 55 Yd pass from Deshawn Purdie (Connor Calvert Kick)32–0
- Q2 0:00WAKEConnor Calvert 43 Yd Field Goal 25–0
- Q2 10:56WAKEChris Barnes 11 Yd pass from Deshawn Purdie (Connor Calvert Kick)22–0
- Q1 3:49WAKEMicah Mays Jr. 52 Yd pass from Deshawn Purdie (Connor Calvert Kick)15–0
- Q1 13:32WAKEChris Barnes 36 Yd pass from Deshawn Purdie (Ty Clark III Run for Two-Point Conversion)8–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ORST Elo 1302, WAKE Elo 1409 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ORST +1.9 (46% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| WAKE | ORST | |
|---|---|---|
| +9.3 (#42) | CORE overall | -14.8 (#106) |
| -4 / -13 | offense / defense | -9 / +6 |
| 2.03 | points / drive | 1.38 |
| 1.84 | allowed / drive | 2.61 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →