Reser StadiumClosing line: WAKE +-1.5 · WAKE covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAKE | 15 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 39 |
| ORST | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14 |
Team stats
WAKEthis game · better side highlightedORST
468
Total yards
309270
Passing yards
175198
Rushing yards
13417
First downs
221-9 · 11%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ORST 1302
WAKE 1409
Projected spread
ORST +1.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
WAKE
56% to win
Market spread
ORST +1.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
44%
ORST · market 46%
Our model blends Elo ratings (ORST Elo 1302, WAKE Elo 1409) plus home-field advantage. That projects ORST +1.9 (44% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ORST (top)WAKE (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ORST 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- WAKE pass offense (0.25 PPA) vs. ORST pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge ORST.
- WAKE rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. ORST rush defense (0.07 allowed) — edge WAKE.
- ORST rush offense (0.01 PPA) vs. WAKE rush defense (-0.02 allowed) — edge ORST.
Drive-by-drive
WAKE 6/14 scoring drives← own end zone →ORST 2/13 scoring drives
WAKETD3 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q1
ORSTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q1
WAKEDOWNS7 pl, 50 yds· own 31Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WAKE up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
WAKE went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Wake Forest vs. Oregon State?
Wake Forest 39, Oregon State 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WAKE) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had WAKE pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.